Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Nets vs Bucks

Coming back to Lopez here but with a slight variation. Bookies have not at all adjusted to the role Lopez is currently in as he’s being used completely as a spacer on the offensive end. Throughout the first 2 games of the series, just 4 of Lopez’ 21 shot attempts were 3 pointers but there was a dramatic shift in G3 where 5 of his 7 attempts were from 3, then it was even more pronounced in G4 as all 6 of his shot attempts were from 3 resulting in 100% of his points coming from behind the arc in games 3 & 4. Really like both his under’s points and his over’s 3s and we are getting some wild prices on combining them here.

• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 3.60 with B365 – 1 unit
• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 111.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 111.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 751.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

**The bet that is currently at 15.00 above, is now at 17.00 with B365 so if you are able to cash it out you can bet it again at the better price. These odds are insane, had to add a little extra. Over the last 2 games Lopez has a total of 0 post ups, 0 elbow touches and just 2 paint touches compared to the first 2 games of the series where he had 7 post ups, 2 elbow touches and 14! paint touches.

In a stunning revelation, Bud has decided it’s in the best interest of the team to play his starters huge minutes, with Middleton on pace for 44 and Giannis on pace for 42. After an awesome series against Miami, Forbes hasn’t really found his place in this series with the Nets switching making it difficult for him to find open shots. He’s a liability on defence, so if he isn’t making/taking shots he’s not very valuable and his minutes are trending that way. Has gone: 21,21,15 and 13 in the latest, but played 2:40 of garbage time so he was really closer to 10 minutes there. For the entire playoffs including the Miami series he’s only at 0.71 PRA per minute and that significantly drops down to 0.51 in this series. I’ve got him projected for 13 minutes here, but he could also end up playing closer to 10.

• Bryn Forbes UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit

A similar train of thought here with Portis, as he’s seen his playing time decrease with every game in the series with: 17,17,11, and 11 in the latest, but played 1:40 of garbage time so really that number was right on 10 minutes. A combination of Lopez playing 32,34 minutes his last two, as well as Giannis getting some run at centre, just makes it really tough for Portis to get playing time. He’s at 0.74 PRA per minute in the playoffs, which has dropped to 0.52 in this series. Have him projected for 12 minutes here, but I am shit scared of foul trouble as I can’t see Tucker getting away with the illegal defence he’s played all series which could shake up the rotation a little bit. Has just a 13.9% usage in this series.

• Bobby Portis UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 0.75 units

With Green back and Kyrie out, there would’ve still been paths to extra minutes for Blake if the Nets decided to go super big just to get their best players on the court, but now with Harden back and Green a game under his belt, it looks like Blake could get crunched. He definitely doesn’t have the 36 minute upside that he showed earlier in the series, and there were some troubling quotes from Nash saying that Blake couldn’t really handle the pace and he didn’t want to wear him down. I think Green is more likely to close as Nash trusts him so much. I have Green projected at 30 minutes and Griffin at 26. Griffin was awesome in G1, but has really been limited since then, staying under 16.5 PRA in all 3 games, averaging 15.4 PRA in 27 minutes on an abysmal 10.1% usage rate.

• Blake Griffin UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.65 units out

• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 0.5 3 Pointers @ 3.60 with B365 – 1 unit
• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 13.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 111.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 111.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez UNDER 9.5 Points / Over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 751.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Bryn Forbes UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bobby Portis UNDER 10.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 0.75 units
• Blake Griffin UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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