Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 11/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Nets vs Bucks

“Really want to mainly be on the Bucks side of the ball here before they go back home. Over the last 3 games since Donte got hurt, Middleton has been very aggressive attacking the glass covering this line in all 3 games averaging 10.7 boards in 35 minutes. He was on pace to play a few seconds short of 40 in G1 one so expect close to that again, and obviously that number looks even better at the per 40 rate averaging 12.0 boards. Tossed up between going the straight rebound or the RA, which I also like, but he hasn’t really shown any assist upside yet in the playoffs with Jrue and Giannis taking up so much of the playmaking duties. He just had 13 boards in game 1. Getting a pretty awesome price on the double double here as well compared to other bookies.”

Running this one back. Still managed to grab 5 despite the Nets shooting over 52% from the field (57% in the first half), playing just 33 minutes, and having 2 taken out of his hands by team-mates. Getting a nicer price today in an absolute must win game.

• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.98 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton Double Double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.2 units

Having a little something on Jrue’s dimes again here. Nets came out to the blistering start which absolutely shook the Bucks, and when teams fall behind we so often see them just start trying to play 1 on 1 and the ball movement just completely dries up (credit Nets defence here too). The exact opposite thing happens when your team are making shots, as the defenders need to stay on their man which opens up the paint and things are just a lot easier overall. I really have lost my confidence in this Bucks team and Bud, but have to have something on here again at the nicer price incase the Bucks come out rolling. He played 22.5 FIRST half minutes last game so definitely expecting 40+ here.

• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Jrue Holiday over 11.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

“I’m not sure if it was Harden going down, the game-plan coming in, or that he got off to a hot start, but Griffin playing 36 minutes really took me by surprise. I was sure that he would get squeezed for some extra size but nope. Hard to imagine Nash changes a winning formula too much so just have to assume he gets in the mid 30s barring foul trouble (a genuine concern guarding Giannis). His per 36 numbers this season with the Nets at centre without Harden are seriously good with a 20.2/9.1/3.4 line with a 20.5% usage over a 169 minute sample. If we put Kyrie & Durant ON the court, the sample drops to 68 minutes but he’s posted a 22.2/10/3.2 per 36 line. This is just all about the minutes.”

He was actually on pace for 35 minutes once again here, so am definitely expecting that tomorrow also. Less confidence on his overall performance in a game that the Bucks are going to be desperate in, but it’s still a really nice price for the DD.

• Blake Griffin Double Double @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.2 units

Have seriously tried talking myself into the Bucks in this series but the more I think about it I’m just not sure what adjustments they can make. Bud really isn’t known for his adjustments, for his entire career he has built a regular season system and will die with the system come playoff times which has ultimately led him to a very poor playoff record. On the other side, Nash has been flawless through the playoffs so far, and there’s a legitimate chance we see KD/Kyrie play 42-44 minutes whilst Khris Jrue and Giannis don’t breach 40. There’s a few similarities here to the Bucks/Heat series – where the Bucks were just completely dominant for the first two games (yes, first game went OT, but only because of some abysmal shooting) but Miami were still favoured in their first home game. Bucks had all the advantages and they came out and won comfortably. Similar thing here with the Nets absolutely dominating the first two games (I got G2 completely wrong) and now go into Milwaukee as dogs. Bucks will definitely be better, but they just have no answer for KD and he is just so dam good. I wanted to take the points with the Nets, but if this game is close there is no way I’m trusting the Bucks closing group over the Nets at the end of the game so ML certainly seems the bet. It’s a big number we’re going to take on KD as well, but this should definitely stay closer. He had 32 through 3 quarters in G2.

• Brooklyn Nets ML @ 2.35 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Kevin Durant over 32.5 Points @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Durant over 34.5 Points / Nets Win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kevin Durant over 39.5 Points / Nets Win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Bud said he wants to get more spacing for Giannis which makes a ton of sense, so am sort of expecting Lopez to hang out on the 3 point line a little more in this one. He has to play as the Bucks bench has just been so bad and he manage to knock down a couple last game.

• Brook Lopez over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Jazz

I certainly don’t think he’ll get up to 29 minutes again as he was aided by Reggie foul trouble, but Kennard has had 2 awesome (offensive) games back to back and has certainly earned his spot in the rotation. He’s provided them with some much needed offence off the bench and throughout Lue’s coaching career he’s always gone to offence first groups as opposed to defence when he’s in a bind so am thinking he’s quite safe here. Had 13 PRA in 14 minutes in the G7, followed up by 20 PRA in G1.

• Luke Kennard over 8.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Jazz are really going to try and limit Kawhi once again here which should open up some extra shots for Morris. He’s taken 8+ 3’s in 3 of his last 4 games which makes these prices way too good to pass up on for someone who can get seriously hot.

• Marcus Morris over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Marcus Morris over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Was so close to betting him last game at 18.5 PRA and thankfully didn’t as he landed on 18 going just 3-12 from the field and 1-8 from 3. Role was awesome and Snyder really trusts him so expecting 32 minutes again here. Despite Donny going off, Ingles still had a huge 5.1 minutes of touch time, with 11 potential assists and a whopping 23% usage rate. He averages 0.77 PRA per minute with Conley off the court, which is bumped to 0.83 PRA per minute in full games Conley has missed this season. He only needs to be going at 0.6 PRA per minute to hit this number if he’s going to play 32 minutes again.

• Joe Ingles over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Joe Ingles over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 6.8 units out

• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.98 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton Double Double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Jrue Holiday over 11.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Blake Griffin Double Double @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Brooklyn Nets ML @ 2.35 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Kevin Durant over 32.5 Points @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Durant over 33.5 Points / Nets Win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kevin Durant over 39.5 Points / Nets Win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Brook Lopez over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Brook Lopez over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Luke Kennard over 8.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Marcus Morris over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Joe Ingles over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Joe Ingles over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

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