NFL Week 5 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

We keep getting so close to a big week and just missing. We hit on my favourite pick of the week as the Colts crushed the Bears which left us with a profitable week. But Lamar Jackson was cruising to his rushing yard number before being pulled from the game as the Ravens were up so much. We are sitting at basically even for the first four weeks but things should get easier as we settle into what has been a wild and unpredictable season so far.

Season Results:

• Staked 44 Returns 43.9
• 49% strike rate
• -0.1 Units Of Profit
• 0% ROI

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons, Mercedes Benz Stadium

I will happily admit I have misjudged a team and I think with the Panthers I have. I was very down on them coming into the season and even without wins in their past two outings they have looked very good. They really are a team with a plan and in the NFL it is amazing how many teams that puts you above.

The Falcons are a mess. They certainly have scoring power but the defence is both injury hit and not very good. Teddy Bridgewater should be able to move the ball fairly easily.

We saw the first firing this week as Bill O’Brien was let go by the Texans. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dan Quinn follow him this week.

• 1 unit Panthers +2 1.78 with TopSport

Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Football Team, FedEx Field

Dwayne Haskins was benched this week in favour of Kyle Allen. While Haskins hadn’t exactly been firing, we have seen what Allen can do before and frankly, it isn’t a lot.

The Washington defence is very talented however and they can keep Washington in the game.

We have seen overs hit at a historic rate with many looking at the lack of penalties being called so far this season. But those of you who watched Thursday night football will have seen many more being called. The bookies are also inflating these lines and it is hard to see how either team puts up too many points here.

• 1 unit Rams/Washington under 46.5 1.93 with TopSport

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Heinz Field

So the Eagles have had a really rough start to the season, but a win over the 49ers could be the thing to kickstart their season. The underlying numbers aren’t nearly as bad as you might expect for the Eagles and the have perhaps been unlucky with injuries.

The Steelers game with the Titans was postponed last week so they got an unexpected bye. While that can be a good thing, we can often see teams coming out with some rust after two weeks and I think we could see Ben Roethlisberger who we have seen already this season trying to keep his arm warm get off to a slow start.

I think the moneyline here is intriguing, but I am sticking with the Eagles and the points. That 7.5 number is so key as it is just over that one touchdown number. It is one of my favourite picks of the week.

• 2 units Eagles +7.5 1.79 with TopSport

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks, Century Link Field

Another game with what looks like an inflated total, this one feels more like a game that is going to be cagey and low (comparatively) scoring.

The Vikings gameplan in this one has to be to hand it off to Dalvin Cook and try and limit the amount of times Russell Wilson gets the ball. If they try and get in a shootout then they will almost certainly lose.

Seattle often play down to their opponents level and I think we could see lots of Chris Carson early in this one. 57 is such a big number, and both teams are of course capable of putting up points, but I just do not see that sort of game here.

• 1 unit Vikings/Seahawks under 57 points 1.89 with TopSport

Futures

The threat of Covid-19 to some of these games means there are less game picks this week. But it means I have had a real delve into the futures markets.

Offensive rookie of the Year is often a quarterback award and this year feels no different with Joe Burrow at a still generous 1.89. He is worth backing now. He picked up his first win last week and looks to be getting more and more comfortable every week. He is the clear frontrunner and as long as he avoids injury should have an excellent chance of picking up the award.

One other intriguing player is CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys wide receiver has 309 yards and two touchdowns already after a flying start. That puts him on pace for similar numbers to when Odell Beckham took home the award in 2014. While it may be Burrow’s award to lose right now, it may be worth a smaller bet on Lamb at a big price as he has every chance to pick up that pace.

The results have not been good so far, but I still believe in the Cowboys. They have had a tough schedule, particularly in the offences they have faced and it gets a lot, lot easier from here on out. The offence is firing on all cylinders and if the defence can even be average, they are going to be a real threat. At 15.0 to win a very open NFC, they represent real good value for a team that could go on a big run over the final 75% of the season.

• 3 units Joe Burrow offensive rookie of the year 1.89 with TopSport
• 1 unit CeeDee Lamb offensive rookie of the year 18.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC Championship 15.0 with Ladrbokes

Expert Tips

• 1 unit Panthers +2 1.78 with TopSport
• 1 unit Rams/Washington under 46.5 1.93 with TopSport
• 2 units Eagles +7.5 1.79 with TopSport
• 1 unit Vikings/Seahawks under 57 points 1.89 with TopSport
• 3 units Joe Burrow offensive rookie of the year 1.89 with TopSport
• 1 unit CeeDee Lamb offensive rookie of the year 18.0 with TopSport
• 1 unit Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC Championship 15.0 with Ladrbokes

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