Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 8/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks vs Nets

To me, this game just came down to Bucks not hitting 3s. Bucks were absolutely killing the Nets inside with a ridiculous 72 paint points and there really isn’t much the Nets can do to slow that down with the personnel they have so they’ll likely be a constant in this series. Not including the garbage time 3 from Forbes, Bucks were a pathetic 5-29 from 3. No tracking data yet but to the eye and a quick rewatch I thought most of the looks were pretty good. Yes, Kyrie and KD didn’t play their best either but at least they got a career game from Mike James and easily Griffin’s best Nets game so counter that which they really can’t rely on again. Waiting for series lines to go back up but I’m pretty keen on Bucks for the series here (going to be very tough for Harden to get back on the court this series I would think after a 2nd reaggravation).

• Milwaukee Bucks ML @ 2.16 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

^ Placed yesterday. Bucks were 6-26 on open or wide open 3s, they will shoot better.

Sticking with the Bucks side here. Role for him is still great but he was just super unlucky last game, with 6 dimes from 15 potentials. With Lopez having such an easy matchup in the paint, we saw Jrue look for him and threw some nice passes which resulted in easy dimes. With Lopez and Giannis getting easy ones in the paint, he should have a pretty safe assist floor in this series, and we probably just saw it at 6, but expect some big assist games from him once this team gets rolling.

• Jrue Holiday over 7.5 Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Jrue Holiday over 11.5 Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Really want to mainly be on the Bucks side of the ball here before they go back home. Over the last 3 games since Donte got hurt, Middleton has been very aggressive attacking the glass covering this line in all 3 games averaging 10.7 boards in 35 minutes. He was on pace to play a few seconds short of 40 in G1 one so expect close to that again, and obviously that number looks even better at the per 40 rate averaging 12.0 boards. Tossed up between going the straight rebound or the RA, which I also like, but he hasn’t really shown any assist upside yet in the playoffs with Jrue and Giannis taking up so much of the playmaking duties. He just had 13 boards in game 1. Getting a pretty awesome price on the double double here as well compared to other bookies.

• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

I’m not sure if it was Harden going down, the game-plan coming in, or that he got off to a hot start, but Griffin playing 36 minutes really took me by surprise. I was sure that he would get squeezed for some extra size but nope. Hard to imagine Nash changes a winning formula too much so just have to assume he gets in the mid 30s barring foul trouble (a genuine concern guarding Giannis). His per 36 numbers this season with the Nets at centre without Harden are seriously good with a 20.2/9.1/3.4 line with a 20.5% usage over a 169 minute sample. If we put Kyrie & Durant ON the court, the sample drops to 68 minutes but he’s posted a 22.2/10/3.2 per 36 line. This is just all about the minutes.

• Blake Griffin over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Blake Griffin Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Nuggets vs Suns

Big difference going from the Blazers defence to the Suns however the role for Monte is just so so good. He finished the series with 9.2! minutes of touch time over the last 2 games (yes there was the double OT game, but he still had 8.2 minutes in G6). 8.2 minutes would put him above Westbrook for the playoffs who’s at 8.1 for reference. Looks far more comfortable running the offence and had 20! potential assists in the G6 finishing with 9. Had a 26.5%+ usage in both G5 & G6 so expect the role to continue here with upside across the board.

• Monte Morris over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Monte Morris over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.1 units out

• Jrue Holiday over 7.5 Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Jrue Holiday over 11.5 Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Khris Middleton over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Blake Griffin over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Blake Griffin Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Monte Morris over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Monte Morris over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

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