Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 31/8

LOS ANGELES, CA - JANUARY 5: Paul George #13 of the LA Clippers walks up court against the New York Knicks on January 5, 2020 at STAPLES Center in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2020 NBAE (Photo by Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images)

Season Results:

• 340 Wins / 221 Losses
• +108.90Units Of Profit
• 18.58% ROI

Celtics vs Raptors 3:00am AEST

He’s been far below his best in the playoffs but it was positive to see some more aggression over his last couple. Usage has shot right back up to 32.3% averaging 22.5 FGA. He missed 2 matchups in the middle of the season but did manage to score 33 in their first meeting, before being held in check (11 pts) along with the rest of the Raptors in a blowout loss in their lone game since the restart. He’s shown that he has some assist upside averaging 7.5 assists over his last 2 (aided by the absence of Lowry last game as he turned into the Raptors primary playmaker).

• Siakam over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Clippers vs Mavs 5:30am AEST

This Mavs defence isn’t good and PG was able to capitalise by getting himself in the paint for some easy looks to get himself going. He’s obviously had his struggles, and was down at a 21.2% usage rate in games 2-4 before his G5 explosion where he posted a team high 37.9%. Doc said he wanted PG to shoot 20+ times a game, so can expect the volume to be there again and he should be full of confidence after going 12-18 and 4-8 from deep for 35 points in G5.

• Paul George over 24.5 Points @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Nuggets vs Jazz 10:30am AEST

Murray has been the key for the Nuggets in this series with a 42.7/8/8 lines in the 3 non-blowout games, but just 13/4/5 in the 2 big losses. Over the last 2 games the Nuggets have really pivoted to running their offence through Murray and using Jokic more as a floor spacer which has resulted in Murray’s team high 31.4% usage and Jokic at 25.0%. By doing this they get the added benefit of dragging Gobert away from the rim. Although they’ve been competitive in the last couple, this Denver starting line-up has been horrendous defensively with a 142.9 rating which is the 2nd worst lineup in the playoffs. In G5 Utah were in complete control up 12 late in the 3rd quarter but just went cold, missing good looks resulting in just 44 second half points ultimately costing them the game.

Jamal is playing huge minutes with 41,43 over his last couple which has resulted in plenty of supporting stats, averaging 17 RA over last 2. He’s been brilliant, but is making a bunch of tough shots and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Utah run some doubles at him.

• Jamal over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with Beteasy – 1.25 units

I mentioned above how Denver has pivoted their offence, which has resulted in Jokic playing more on the perimeter. Over the last 2 games he’s had 18 open or wide open attempts from 3. Shooting the ball with great confidence going 10-21 overall from 3 over his last 2.

• Jokic over 2.5 3’s @ 2.88 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Jokic over 3.5 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Jokic over 4.5 3’s @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

It was more about Utah missing shots than anything Denver did defensively in the second half of G5 so am happy to go again here. Nuggets needed a 21 point opening quarter from Jokic to stay in touch in G5 then a monster second half effort from Murray while Utah continued to get good looks throughout. Getting a much bigger price for the margin bets this time so am fine with just having a sprinkle on.

• Jazz team total over 110.5 @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jazz 21-30 @ 16.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jazz 31+ @ 71.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

I haven’t touched on Mitchell yet but he continues to dominate the team in usage and is at 37.1% for the series. He’s been able to light up anyone Denver has put on him, hitting this mark in 4/5 games and I think he comes out aggressive once again here. 2 of the 5 games this series both Jamal and Donovan have gone for 35+ and if we see another close game it’ll be on those guys down the stretch so happy to combine their alts for a big price.

• Mitchell over 29.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Mitchell 35+ Points / Jamal 35+ Points @ 16.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units

Staking Plan

• Siakam over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Paul George over 24.5 Points @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Jamal over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with Beteasy – 1.25 units
• Jokic over 2.5 3’s @ 2.88 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Jokic over 3.5 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Jokic over 4.5 3’s @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jazz team total over 110.5 @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jazz 21-30 @ 16.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jazz 31+ @ 71.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Mitchell over 29.5 Points @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Mitchell 35+ Points / Jamal 35+ Points @ 16.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport