Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/12

Season Results:

• 8 Wins / 20 Losses
• 1.1 Units Of Profit
• 6.69% ROI

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Hawks vs Grizzlies 9:10am AEST

So much buzz around his improved offensive game in the off-season and the early signs have been strong. He looked great through the pre-season with a 23.0/8.0/3.7 per 36 line, then came out in the opener and had another strong outing with 15/6 in just under 24 minutes. The pre-season games included 2 against the Grizzlies, with 19&22 PRA in just 19&25 mins respectively. He’s going to be hard to target this season when the Hawks are fully healthy as minutes may be inconsistent, but with Rondo & Capela out he should remain in the starting line-up and be in line for low 30 minutes. Galllo is also questionable and would be positive for Reddish if he misses. Had a team 2^nd 23.5% usg in pre-season and 23.2% in the opener.

• Reddish over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1.5 units

Hornets vs Thunder 11:10am AEST

It was rough stint for him in Philly, with his overall numbers taking a massive hit but he’s in a really good spot here in OKC. They’ll be featuring him a lot early in the season, hoping to show to other teams he has something left in the tank. He was surprisingly productive last season when he was the lone centre, with a 17.0/8/5/5.2 per-36 line. I’m a tough concerned they don’t push him too much especially early in the season after playing just 36 minutes in the pre-season. He looked really good in those minutes, with a 32/15/1 line on a team second 24.4% usage. Gets a good matchup here.

• Horford over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit

No good in their opener, missing all 3 of his 3 pointers and probably more concerningly only playing 15 minutes. He’s going to continue shooting them and we’re getting a little bit better price today. Great matchup.

• LaMelo 3+ 3’s @ 7.75 with B365 – 0.1 units
• LaMelo 4+ 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Just wanted to watch him in the opener and see if that hand was bothering him at all, but it clearly wasn’t having a really strong Hornets debut with 28/4/7 playing 36 minutes. Despite Terry going off, he’s the clear number 1 option on this team and it wouldn’t at all surprise if he finishes the season around the 21.9/5.4/3.5 line he had in his final year in Utah. Just the 2 pre-season games before breaking his hand but had a strong 20.8/6.6/6.6 per 36 line. Gets a strong matchup here against OKC.

• Hayward over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with B365 – 1 unit
• Hayward over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 – 0.1 units

Although he looked great I was a little underwhelmed by his role in the pre-season. He did lead the team with a 25.0% usage, but I was hoping/expecting it to be around 30. He posted a nice 21.6/4.0/6.8 per 36 line in the 3 games. This team is just so limited offensively I think there’s a real chance he does get close to that 30% usage and we just saw both Sexton and Garland go off with 27 & 22 points against this Hornets back-court. He should beat his 26.5 PA line.

• Shai over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Shai over 34.5 Points @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Magic vs Wizards 11:10am AEST

Impressive Wizards debut with a 21/11/15 triple double on opening night against Philly. Was a little concerned they’d take a few games to ramp him up, so it was great to see him get up to 36 minutes straight away. He got a little lucky with shooters knocking down shots with his 15 assists coming on just 21 potentials, so I definitely don’t expect him to get near that number again but this number is probably too low if he’s going to continue posting 30+ usage rates (32.3% in opener).

• Westbrook over 7.5 Assists @ 1.79 with Topsport – 1 unit

Pacers vs Bulls 12:10am AEST

Jeez he looked unreal against the Knicks in their opener with a ridiculous 32/13/5 line in 36 minutes. This new Pacers offence is going to be extremely beneficial for everyone, and they really did a good job pushing the pace playing at 106.00 which is up from the 99.41 last season. He had a 29.0% usage rate and just gets himself so many good looks at the rim. Will likely keep riding this line until it gets significantly higher. Gets an absolute cupcake of a matchup against Lauri/WCJ. He will be busy.

• Sabonis over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Sabonis over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Sabonis over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.1 units

I just have to go again here. The Bulls were in shambles right from the start of the game and they looked completely discombobulated. The Bulls offence could not have been any worse, and he still managed to get close with 2 dimes in his 25 minutes. The 5.6 dimes per 36 in the pre-season is too hard to ignore.

• Carter Jr over 2.5 Assists @ 4.86 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Carter Jr over 3.5 Assists @ 9.21 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Carter Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 13.93 with Topsport – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Raptors 12:40am AEST

The strong pre-season really carried over and he kicked off the opening season with a beautiful game with 21/6/9 in 30 minutes. He got a little lucky with the dimes, with just 11 potentials but the points and rebounds and certainly replicable. They are playing extremely quick with a 109.00 pace and although this Is a much tougher matchup against a very good Raptors defence which takes away some upside, the line is just too low for the multi-category stat stuffer.

• Dejounte over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 7.8 units out.

• Reddish over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport – 1.5 units
• Horford over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit
• LaMelo 3+ 3’s @ 7.75 with B365 – 0.1 units
• LaMelo 4+ 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Hayward over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with B365 – 1 unit
• Hayward over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 – 0.1 units
• Shai over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Shai over 34.5 Points @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Westbrook over 7.5 Assists @ 1.79 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Sabonis over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Sabonis over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Sabonis over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Carter Jr over 2.5 Assists @ 4.86 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Carter Jr over 3.5 Assists @ 9.21 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Carter Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 13.93 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Dejounte over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
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