Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 4.40 Units Loss
• -9.83% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Another day of some brutal losses. This bad luck is getting a lot. Smart goes 0-3 on open 3 pointers and 1-6 on wide open 3 pointers to finish 2-10. Hayward got off to the hot start then got into foul trouble which just completely disrupts guys playing just 18 minutes. Wall had a dime taken off him in the first quarter and finished one short with 7 dimes from 19 potentials in just 29 minutes for a 0.37% conversion (averages 0.46% for the season). Dort goes 6-17 from the field including 1-7 from deep falling 2 points short. I won’t often comment on unlucky losses (as there are usually plenty of lucky wins too) but seems we’re on the wrong side of a bunch of bad luck recently. Process is good, bets are strong and am happy with the value I’ve been finding so am confident in a strong finish to the season..

Blazers vs Heat 10:40am AEST

Miami are so short-handed here with Dragic, Jimmy, Olynyk, Bradley, Okpala and Harkless all either hurt or have been moved which is going to force Nunn into huge minutes in a much much better role. Miami are losing their two main ball handlers in Jimmy (6.3 minutes of touch time) and Dragic (4.6 minutes of touch time) which will lead to a ton more on ball reps for Nunn. We have a 196 minutes sample of Nunn without the aforementioned guys and he’s been super productive in that span with a per 36 line of 18.7/5.0/3.3. Line’s have come up accordingly and he’s too inconsistent to have much on, but there is still some value in his alts markets in an awesome matchup. He’s coming off a 25 point game against Phoenix.

• Kendrick Nunn over 19.5 Points @ 3.20 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Wizards vs Knicks 10:40am AEST

“There’s no denying how good he’s been recently averaging 28.6/9.6/11.9 for 50.1 PRA since the break but this is an awful spot for him. The Knicks defence has remained solid post all star with the 12th ranked defensive rating, but they have been absolutely crawling playing at a ridiculously slow 96.0 pace which is 28th resulting in them allowing just 1o4.8 points per game, which is the fewest in the league since the break (Lakers 106.2). They just don’t allow points in transition with the leagues fewest 16.1 since ASB which is not good news for Westbrook who completes 21.1% of his possessions in transition scoring 5.9 points per game which is the 3rd most in the league. They’ve also done an awesome job all season shutting down the paint, allowing just 42.7 points per game which is the 3rd fewest. Westbrook’s jumper can fail him, but is usually pretty good in the paint and he’s scoring 9.6 PITP per game this season. He has some pretty contrasting home/away splits with a 49.3% eFG at home which dips right down to 45.6% on the road translating to 24.2 points per 36 at home vs just 20.8 PP36 on the road. I think it’ll be tough for him to score, but with the Knicks playing so slow the peripherals might not show up either and there is a ton of downside from the 20.5 RA line. Knicks allow the 3rd fewest assists per game at just 22.8 and are about mid pack at 13th in opponent rebounds. Since the break he’s had some seriously favourable matchups and he’s cashed in in all of them: Bucks x2 (64 & 45 PRA), Kings (50 PRA), Jazz (63 PRA) and Nets (55 PRA) but has had two sup-bar matchups and failed to cover this in both: Grizzlies (35 PRA) & 76ers (38 PRA).”

Aided late by the blowout last game but he was never on pace finishing with just 30 in and we are only taking 1 PRA less today. Game environment was actually a fair bit better than I expected with a 100.5 pace and 244 points scored which was about 20 over the over/under line. Total remains at 224 today so there’s some even more downside to Westbrook. Happy to go again.

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Clippers vs Spurs 11:40am AEST

Said a couple of days ago I probably wouldn’t be backing guys on b2b’s but in a game where both teams are in the same conditions I don’t have any issues. Repeat matchup here and this line is simply just a few points too low based on his current production. The 12.5 line is right on his season average of 12.3, but the majority of the season he’d been coming off the bench and his production has significantly spiked with more playing time moving into the starting group. We have a 78 minute sample of the current starting 5 playing together and Morris leads the group in FGA at 17.8 per 36 as well as points at a crazy 25.1 per 36. Raw numbers are pretty telling with 7 games as a starter he’s averaging 16.9 points in 28.4 minutes vs 28 games off the bench where he averaged 11.2 points in 23.9 minutes. Just torched the Spurs yesterday for 20.

• Marcus Morris over 12.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

76ers vs Lakers 1:10pm AEST

Brutal change of role on us last game as he was the 4th sub off the bench and down to just 19 minutes after playing really well the game prior. Don’t understand Lakers unwillingness to put him in a deal for Lowry if they are playing Wes Mathews more minutes than him. Mckinnnie got 8 minutes who really just shouldn’t be in the rotation at all. Don’t trust Vogel but his line’s come way down here so just having a tiny bit on the 25+ as he’s more than capable if he gets the playing time (happily took over 22.5 PRA as the base last game).

• Talen Horton-Tucker over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 2.8 units out

• Kendrick Nunn over 19.5 Points @ 3.20 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Russell Westbrook UNDER 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 12.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Talen Horton-Tucker over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
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