Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/8

Season Results:

• 327 Wins / 209 Losses
• +108.35 Units Of Profit
• 19.43% ROI

Magic vs Bucks 3:30am AEST

“Bucks aren’t guarding him at the 3-point line, with 14 of his 16 attempts wide open (6+ ft), and the other 2 open (4-6 ft). He’s made them pay, knocking down 7-16. He’s also getting 7.5 open or wide open 2-point attempts per game, so should get plenty of easy looks here too. He has a team high 32.9% usage and they are playing at a 105.25 pace.” – copy from write up last game. They left him open as expected, but he couldn’t capitalise going just 2-9 on wide open shots (1-7 from 3) and 2-5 on open shots (1-1 from 3). Don’t expect this one to be any different, just need him to knock down his shots as Bucks have done a pretty good job not giving him any easy ones inside. I’ll probably end up having something on those alternate 3 point lines again.

• Vucevic over 22.5 Points @ 1.98 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Rockets vs Thunder 6:00am AEST

Had another good game with 15/10. I am a little weary of the shooting numbers as he was 5-10 and 3-6 from 3 which we can’t expect again, but he looks great out there and is extremely active on both ends getting himself involved. Think he should be locked in to around 36 minutes again here. Is at 23.2 PRA per 36 over the last couple.

• House over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Pacers vs Heat 8:30am AEST

Coming off a massive game with 34/14 and had some seriously elite advanced stats. He had a massive 10.5 minutes of touch time (Luka is averaging 10.2 in the playoffs) and a pretty crazy 25 drives (Harden 27, Kawhi 27, Levert 23). May have gotten a little lucky with the 14 dimes, as he only had 20 potentials but this line looks low for the minutes and role he’s playing. I have no doubt Spo will give him some extra attention here, but he played a massive 42 minutes and in an elimination game I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar here.

• Brogdon over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

He has been pretty bad in the series, but he continues to play as if he were his pre injury self and may be a beneficiary if Miami do get aggressive on Brogdon. Over the last 2 games he’s taken a combined 21 3 pointers, draining 7 and covering this line in both. To the eye I felt as if he had been taking a lot of bad shots so I was surprised when I saw that 12 of them were catch and shoot (made just 4) and he was just 7-19 on open or wide open 3’s. I don’t actually think Indiana have been playing badly as they’ve made a few little adjustments that have worked. Their starting unit (with Justin) is the best defensive unit in the playoff with a 78.2 defensive rating and they got a little unlucky to start last game with Miami scorching from 3. Getting a nice enough price here to have a little stab.

• Oladipo over 2.5 3’s @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Oladipo over 3.5 3’s @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Their starting unit (with Justin) is the best defensive unit in the playoff with a 78.2 defensive rating and they got a little unlucky to start last game with Miami scorching from 3. Getting a nice enough price here to have a little stab. They also really cranked the pace at 105.5 last game, so it’s a decent way to get some exposure to a few guys to have big scoring nights, which will inevitably happen at that high a pace. Think the over is a decent play too.

• Oladipo 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Warren 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Brogdon 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 8.75 with Topsport – 0.1 units

Staking Plan

• Vucevic over 22.5 Points @ 1.98 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• House over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Brogdon over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Oladipo over 2.5 3’s @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Oladipo over 3.5 3’s @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Oladipo 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Warren 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Brogdon 25+ Pts / Indiana win @ 8.75 with Topsport – 0.1 units
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