Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/8

Season Results:

• 327 Wins / 209 Losses
• +108.35 Units Of Profit
• 19.43% ROI

Bucks vs Magic 3:30am AEST

Torched them again last game and now has back to back 30 points games, averaging 33.5 for the series. Things couldn’t have started much worse for them in G2, starting 4-34 from the field, yet they still managed to fight back and hang around. Bucks aren’t guarding him at the 3-point line, with 14 of his 16 attempts wide open (6+ ft), and the other 2 open (4-6 ft). He’s made them pay, knocking down 7-16. He’s also getting 7.5 open or wide open 2-point attempts per game, so should get plenty of easy looks here too. He has a team high 32.9% usage and they are playing at a 105.25 pace.

• Vucevic over 22.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Vucevic over 3.5 3’s @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Vucevic over 4.5 3’s @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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Heat vs Pacers 5:30am AEST

Happy to go again here. He’s looked great in the 2 games and although his minutes were down at 31 last game, his usage remained at a team high 29.1% over the 2 games. He’s averaging 22/5.5 across the 2 games but its the volume I’ve liked, taking 18 & 19 shots. He’s been aggressive, averaging 17 drives per game but Indiana have done a good job not fouling him, as he’s only managed to get to the line 3 times. He hasn’t been great defensively, but definitely has Spo’s trust as he’s run him out there for the final 8 minutes of both games. He’s averaging just 5.5 dimes from 12 potential assists, so there is some assist upside if guys are making shots. Indiana might try push the pace here to get some transition buckets as their offence has really struggled which would help too. Think Heat go up 3-0 here.

• Dragic over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

OKC vs Rockets 8:00am AEST

It finally looks like he’s got his confidence back. He’s so much better than how he’s been playing, and it has been frustrating to watch. He had 17 drives per game in the seeding games, which ranked 7^th in the league (just 30.6 minutes per game – lowest amongst the top 7). His finishing was poor in those games though so never really cashed in. In G1 he only had 9 drives, but they were right back up in G2 with 19 creating 13 of his 31 points. Just finished with the 2 dimes but had 8 potentials so if OKC can hit some shots that could get a bump.

• Shai over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units

Minutes minutes minutes. Seems like a very low line for someone in line to play 36+ minutes on an offence that’s firing. He played a team high 38 minutes in G2 and was great on both ends, particularly his defence on CP. He finished with a massive line of 19/9/3 and his activity was extremely eye catching. Should get a bunch of open shots in this offence and if he can remain active on the glass and aggressive on the offensive end shouldn’t have any issues clearing this.

• House over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists with Beteasy – 1.25 units (same line on TAB if Beteasy moves)

Continues to be super aggressive with a 31.7% usage through the 2 games. Shot wasn’t falling for him in G2 going 5-20 and 0-10 from 3 yet he still managed to cover this line with some nice supporting stats and is now averaging 4 rebounds and 4 assists for the series. Feel fairly confident the RA can show up again so have to think he’ll be covering this if he takes near 20 shots again.

• Gordon over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists with B365 – 1 unit

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Lakers vs Blazers 10:30am AEST

Although their offence has really struggled at time, the Lakers defence has been really solid throughout the restart and has carried over to the playoffs with a 94.2 defensive rating over the 2 games (next best Raptors 99.0). Lakers mixed things up on Lillard a bit, boxing him in at the top of the key limiting him to 18 points and just 7 3 point attempts, equal lowest since the restart. He recognised this “I just kept hearing them yell out ‘box, box, box…I think I’m going to have to give it up and trust the pass out to score and make them pay for it.” Add this to the fact he dislocated his finger and is wearing a splint in this one it seems ripe for an unders bet. Blazers may be cooked and if Lakers can get going again early we could be in for another blowout. Portland just have no answer for AD.

• Lillard under 32.5 Points @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Vucevic over 22.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Vucevic over 3.5 3’s @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Vucevic over 4.5 3’s @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Dragic over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Shai over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• House over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Gordon over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists with B365 – 1 unit
• Lillard under 32.5 Points @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit
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