Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 2/9

Season Results:

• 343 Wins / 223 Losses
• +110.07 Units Of Profit
• 18.58% ROI

Raptors vs Celtics 7:30am AEST

Bit of a shame we can’t get over 4.5 again here. He racked up 10 dimes in the opener and while I don’t fully expect him to reach that mark again, I think he covers this, and we are getting good odds. We saw Levert rack up big assist numbers against the Raps averaging 9.5 for the series. Kemba looks great and had a huge 18 potentials for his dimes in the opener so unless Raptors drastically change something this looks good. He had 7.3 minutes of touch time (sat the final 4:51) which is up from 5.9 per game in round 1 vs Philly. Looks to have great chemistry with the Time Lord Rob Williams and had 3 assists via him alone.

• Kemba over 5.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kemba over 7.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kemba over 8.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Was very close to betting him in the opener but turned out to be a good miss. Saw enough to warrant having a go here. He’s too good a player to go anywhere near 3-16 again. He was just 2-9 on his open or wide-open attempts (18-30 vs BKN) and just 1-6 on catch and shoot attempts (9-15 vs BKN). Was on track to play 40+ mins which I’d expect again, giving him ample time to rack up some assists too as he had 15 potentials in G1 and 7.1 minutes of touch time (next highest Lowry 4.5). He’s very capable of putting together a big game, especially playing such big minutes, so getting some exposure to his alts.

• VanVleet over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.8 with B365 – 1.3 units
• VanVleet over 9.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Beteasy – 0.1 units
• VanVleet over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• VanVleet over 5.5 3’s @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Raptors have allowed very few points to centres but have given up some big rebounding numbers, as their guys favour getting back for defence as opposed to crashing the offensive glass (24^th ranked OREB in reg season). Jarrett Allen dominated the defensive glass with 8,11,12,11 which worked out at 0.32 per minute. In G1 Theis grabbed 15 boards (13 defensive) but the key number was that 11 of the 13 were uncontested. Definitely don’t expect Raptors to shoot as poorly so won’t be as many opportunities but the line looks reasonable.

• Theis over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Absolutely kicking myself for missing out on this in G1, as Raptors giving up the most corner 3’s in the league was something I touched on in the Nets series but I think it’s worth going again here. He had 7 corner 3 attempts in G1, making 5 of them. All 9 of his attempts were either open or wide open and we’ve seen him rattle off multiple 3 pointer games in succession before. Only 1 game into the series, I don’t expect Nurse to make any major adjustments as this system has worked for them all year, and I’m sure he’s much more comfortable making someone like Smart beat them as opposed to Kemba/Tatum.

• Smart over 2.5 3’s @ 2.63 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Smart over 3.5 3’s @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Smart over 4.5 3’s @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Nuggets vs Jazz GAME 7 10:30am AEST

Remarkable what he’s been doing and am happy to ride the hot hand. It’s clear he’s in control of this offence now and Malone has done a really good job running a bit more action for him allowing him to come off screens. Playing massive minutes and Denver really need him to go off again to hang with Utah.

• Jamal over 35.5 Points + Assists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1.3 units

Was visibly annoyed after G6 so look for him to come out aggressive here. He is just killing the Nuggets in so many different ways. He got up to 39 minutes last game so there’s a chance he hits 40 here which just means more opportunity.

• Mitchell over 37.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

If it’s close which I imagine it will be here, they are both usage beasts in the 4th quarter and deservedly so.

• Donovan 35+ Points / Jamal 33+ Points @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Donovan 40+ Points / Jamal 40+ Points @ 15.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Donovan 45+ Points / Jamal 44+ Points @ 69.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

For both of those they are just slightly better lines/odds than standard points lines but love those too. 

Staking Plan

• Kemba over 5.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kemba over 7.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kemba over 8.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• VanVleet over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.8 with B365 – 1.3 units
• VanVleet over 9.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Beteasy – 0.1 units
• VanVleet over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• VanVleet over 5.5 3’s @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Theis over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Smart over 2.5 3’s @ 2.63 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Smart over 3.5 3’s @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Smart over 4.5 3’s @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jamal over 35.5 Points + Assists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1.3 units
• Mitchell over 37.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Donovan 35+ Points / Jamal 33+ Points @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Donovan 40+ Points / Jamal 40+ Points @ 15.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Donovan 45+ Points / Jamal 44+ Points @ 69.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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