Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 17/6

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - APRIL 11: Bogdan Bogdanovic #13 of the Atlanta Hawks brings the ball up court against the Charlotte Hornets in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 11, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Hawks vs 76ers

I just don’t trust Embiid’s knee at all here which is obviously the key to this series now. Hawks actually have some advantages in this series creating 17 wide open and and 12.5 open 3 pointers per game, to the 76ers 13.5 wide open and 8.0 open so they aren’t drawing dead even if Joel is healthy. The higher number of 3s means they have a bit more variance which is what to look for in dogs. Trae has just been awesome and is creating 22 potentials per game during this series, up to 24.5 over his last 2. If Hawks are to win it’ll have to come off a strong shooting night which are usually set up from Trae.

• Trae 13+ Assists / Hawks Win @ 11.00 with B365 – 0.2 units

Been a bit of money to the over here inflating the under prices, so want to have something on. He’s playing huge minutes which is obviously scary but there’s been a bit of a role change for him over the last couple of games with Trae being so dominant. He’s made just 26.5 passes per creating 3.0 potentials which is a huge dip from the 34.4 passes made and 6.8 potentials during the Knicks series despite playing less minutes there. He’s got an advantageous matchup in this series being guarded by Kork or Curry a lot of the time so he’s looking to be aggressive shooting when he can. Touch time is right down to 2.1 minutes per game from the 2.7 over the whole playoffs. Has just 3 assists in his last 3 games.

• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 2.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 1.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 0.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet 0.1 units

Jazz vs Clippers

Quite like Rudy to have a bounce back game here after a couple of down ones. It’s obviously an important game for the Jazz as I’m sure they don’t want to risk an elimination game in Los Angeles even without Kawhi, so I have to think he gets up to at least 36 minutes, possibly closer to 38 as the Jazz have just been getting killed while he’s off the court. The switching defence from the Clippers really has taken away a lot of Rudy’s offence but no Kawhi here really changes things. We’re likely going to see more Zubac, which means a more conventional PNR coverage which should make things easier for Rudy. Kawhi is also the Clippers best help defender in that small group so Jazz might have a little easier time getting the ball through to him.

• Rudy Gobert over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Too low. Taking a bit of a risk here getting this on before the line-ups but I think it makes sense they start him and in my opinion is the biggest beneficiary here. The last 3 games that Kawhi missed (which PG was active) it was Mann who got the starting job and he averaged 33.3 minutes, with an 11.3/4.3/1.0 line. He’s at 0.49 PRA for the series, so if he gets the 28 minutes I’m projecting then he should definitely be covering this.

• Terrence Mann over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units

If they fall behind the might need to just bite the bullet and play Kennard for his offence.

• Luke Kennard over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Luke Kennard over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.5 unit out

• Trae 13+ Assists / Hawks Win @ 11.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 2.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 1.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Bogdan Bogdanovic UNDER 0.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet 0.1 units
• Rudy Gobert over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Terrence Mann over 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Luke Kennard over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Luke Kennard over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

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