Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/9

Season Results:

• 356 Wins / 239 Losses
• +106.36 Units Of Profit
• 17.14% ROI

Clippers vs Nuggets 8:30am AEST

Was a very comfortable cover for us last game as happy to go again here. He’s now had 18,20,20 over his last 3 games and theres no reason he can’t continue that here. Had another 14 potentials last game, now averaging 15.3 over that same span. We’ve now seen a game with his shot falling, so it was nice to see his dimes and rebounds still showing up. Like both his lines of 9+ rebounds and 6+ assists so more than happy to take them combined.

• Kawhi over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit

I’m a tiny bit concerned the Clippers try something different on him here as he’s been torching them, but this line does just seem low for his recent production. He’s now had back to back 30+ usage rate for the first time since February, and with such a tough matchup for Jamal, he’s going to need to be busy again. Covered this easily with 44, 44, 37 over his last 3 games and we might see him push up to 40 minutes in this one too as its an elimination game. As mentioned below Clippers don’t have a guy to matchup with him.

• Jokic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Not keen to be overly exposed to this game, but we had stiff losses with Beverly – supporting stats were there but managed just 2 points – and Grant – shot just 1-6 from 3 – last game so feel free to back up again on them if you’re looking for something else. Jamal is playing big minutes and has 6,6,9,7 dimes through the 4 games, averaging 13.5 potentials so can feel pretty good about them showing up again, along with Jokic’s scoring as he is clearly too quick/crafty for Zubac and too big for Harrell. 

Celtics vs Raptors 11:00am AEST

Nurse only used the Raptors small ball lineup for 2 minutes in the regular season, but closed out the game with 18 straight minutes of it in G6. With Powell really heating up and looking great, I expect them to go back to it a bit more here. As a result, OG has been their defacto rim protector and is playing much closer to the basket. Managed to grab 13 boards in G6 (all in regulation) and has covered this line in all but one of the games in the series. He has been amazing defensively as the primary guy on Tatum who should be in line for monster minutes, so expect OG to play big minutes too. He’s been great on the offensive glass with 9 OREB over his last 2.

• OG over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Been great in this series and has turned it up another notch the further this series as gone on. Looked like he was a major beneficiary of Kemba being taken out of G6 with much more playmaking duties and is building some really nice chemistry with Theis with 3 easy assists in G6. Theis alley-oops look to be the counter to Toronto’s small-ball which I’m expecting a fair bit of tonight. Covered this easily in his last 3, with 13,13,21

• Smart over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.75  with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Kawhi over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jokic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• OG Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Smart over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.75  with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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