Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/10

Season Results:

• 389 Wins / 264 Losses
• +113.53 Units Of Profit
• 16.48% ROI

Lakers vs Heat 11:00am AEST

He is as cold as anyone in the bubble right now, but I think we are getting a good enough line here to warrant a bet in an otherwise tough game. Miami guys have been really good to bet on throughout the playoffs since it’s such a wide spread of usage, but it’s a bit harder to back them with confidence here against their toughest matchup yet. On the other side, Lakers guys have been awful to bet on all season as the usage is dominated by 2 guys and the rest of the rotation can be hard to piece together. Onto Crowder. He seems to have a floor of 30 minutes a night and this Heat offence generates so many good looks for him, with a team high 6.3 open or wide open 3 point attempts throughout the playoffs. Not expecting him to go back to his 50% shooting, but if he can knock a couple down I think he could see into the high 30s this series, guarding both Lebron & AD. It was great to see him do some other stuff against Boston when his shot wasn’t going scoring 20 points not from 3’s over his last 2 games. It was earlier in the season when he was with Memphis, but he did have a 21 point game against the Lakers. He’s a great upside guy, as the volume is there for him nightly so happy to be exposed to some alts.

NRL Round 17 Preview - Our Selections

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Billy Slater Blames Fatigue For Embarrassing Loss

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• Crowder over 13.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Crowder over 4.5 3’s @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Crowder over 5.5 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

As mentioned above, it’s a tough game from a player prop perspective as both coaches have a lot of options at this stage but I’d expect some more opportunity to open up for G2. I am however keen to back the Heat here. Money has come for Miami, but I still think the Lakers are way too short so unless there’s a significant chance I can’t see myself backing them at all this series. Miami probably don’t get a better chance to win a game than they do today. Lakers haven’t come across anything like Miami’s motion offence so far in the playoffs.

Portland vs Lakers 37.4 potential assists

Rockets vs Lakers 41.6 potential assists

Denver vs Lakers 42.0 potential assists

Miami have averaged 52.2 potential assists in the playoffs. It’s going to be a whole lot tougher for Lakers to shut this defence down as they don’t have the personnel to chase around Robinson and Herro. We’ve seen this Lakers offence crap itself for long stretches multiple times, but if they aren’t able to shut down Miami at the same time, it could get very dangerous for them. Miami have a +42.5 net rating in the clutch in 41 playoff minutes compared to Lakers +3.8 in 18 minutes.

• Miami ML @ 2.67 with B365 – 1 unit

A couple of other ideas

Rondo u18.5 PRA – He simply can’t get through screens and I think he is going to be a massive liability for the Lakers defensively. Could lose minutes to Caruso. 

Dragic o18.5 Points – Just playing so well and should be able to attack Dwight & McGee in the PNR. Might find it a bit more difficult when AD is at the 5, but Dragic’s rotation have him playing start of 2nd quarter, which is when the Lakers usually go to their 2nd big. 

Bam o20.5 PA – Has covered this in 8 of his last 9 games but am happy to just watch how this matchup plays out, as Lakers certainly have the tools to slow him down. Don’t be surprised to see me betting on him next game if he handles himself well. (I think he’ll be fine) 

NRL Round 17 Preview - Our Selections

YouTube Video VVVvNW9pRnBSSGU4Yk1manNJd3pOb2h3Lkp3a2pVb3YyTUZj

Billy Slater Blames Fatigue For Embarrassing Loss

YouTube Video VVVvNW9pRnBSSGU4Yk1manNJd3pOb2h3LmpqdHVJbjItZFg0

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*Series Bets

I really think Miami can win this series, but if they do they are going to have to do it in 6 games as it’s very hard to see Lebron losing a G7. Opens up a nice opportunity from a betting perspective.

• Miami 4-2 @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.75 units
• Lakers 4-3 @ 6.00 with TAB  – 0.5 units

Staking Plan

• Crowder over 13.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Crowder over 4.5 3’s @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Crowder over 5.5 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Miami ML @ 2.67 with B365 – 1 unit
• Miami 4-2 @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.75 units
• Lakers 4-3 @ 6.00 with TAB  – 0.5 units
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