NRL Finals Preview: Panthers, Rabbitohs to clash in Grand Final rematch for the ages
September 21, 2022
The Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs will do battle this Saturday night at Accor Stadium almost 12 months on from their epic Grand Final clash at Suncorp last year with the winner keeping their premiership hopes alive.
Penrith came out victorious both times the sides met this season – 26-12 in Round 4 at BlueBet and 26-22 in Round 23 at Accor.
Penrith were hampered by unavailability on both occasions; Brian To’o and Moses Leota were absent from their Round 4 in whilst Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and Scott Sorensen missed the Round 23 clash.
Download Our Free NRL AppPenrith’s only lineup change from their qualifying final win over Parramatta was a forced one with left winger Taylan May rubbed out for one week due to a high shot on Will Penisini. Charlie Staines will replace him in the 17, however, the expectation is that Staines will line-up on the right wing outside Stephen Crichton shifting To’o over the left outside Izack Tago. To’o played on the left wing during Penrith’s run towards last year’s premiership as well as at State of Origin level. Ivan Cleary has also named Apisai Koroisau to start at hooker with Mitch Kenny on the pine, however, the two were swapped an hour before kick-off in their last-start win.
South Sydney, meanwhile, will be without interchange middle Siliva Havili after he suffered a calf issue in their win over Cronulla whilst Alex Johnston’s availability remains uncertain, despite being named, after the winger suffered a hip flexor injury in the same game. Jai Arrow is expected to play despite picking up a groin issue whilst veteran prop Tom Burgess is serving the second week of his two-match suspension. Should Johnston fail to prove his fitness, Josh Mansour and Richie Kennar have been named among the reserves.
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The Rabbitohs have won just one of their past nine against Penrith – a 16-10 win in last year’s qualifying final – and have not beaten them at Homebush since mid-2017.
All three of their finals meetings have come in the past two years including last year’s historic Grand Final which saw Penrith run out 14-12 winners to claim their third premiership in club history. Cleary was awarded the Clive Churchill Medal whilst Penrith’s back three of To’o, Crichton, and Dylan Edwards combined for a stupendous 675 run metres.
13 of the 17 who appeared in last year’s Grand Final for Penrith have been named to line-up this Saturday night whilst 10 Rabbitohs have been named.
Despite losing the possession and yardage battles somewhat comfortably in last year’s Grand Final, the Rabbits broke 59 tackles to Penrith’s 23, doubled their line break count, and conceded less penalties. Cleary’s boot, however, proved vital with the halfback kicking for 649 metres and forcing five dropouts. Download Our Free NRL App
Whilst Adam Reynolds, Dane Gagai, and Jaydn Su’A are among the big names missing from South Sydney’s 2021 Grand Final side, the presence of Latrell Mitchell – who has an argument for being the premiership’s most valuable player this season – offers a point of difference Penrith did not have to deal with 12 months ago; the Bunnies are 11-5 with Mitchell this season and just 3-5 without him.
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This will be the ninth preliminary final in Penrith history as they aim to advance to their sixth Grand Final.
South Sydney, meanwhile, are appearing in their 41st preliminary final with hopes of qualifying for their 31st Grand Final.
Ivan Cleary gave us some indication of how his interchange rotation may look as their quest for back-to-back premierships reaches its climax in their week one win over Parramatta. Koroisau was injected into the action around the first-quarter-mark to spell Leota with Kenny shifting from hooker into the middle for close to a 10-minute burst before the injection of Sorensen. Spencer Leniu replaced Fisher-Harris around the half-hour-mark and gave his side close to 25 minutes of elite production – seven carries for 84 metres with three tackle breaks and 13 tackles. Leota replaced Leniu just shy of the hour-mark before Fisher-Harris came back on for Sorensen several sets later. Jaeman Salmon’s only run came in the final 10 minutes when May exited with hamstring complaint. With the result sealed, Kenny spelled Leota again in the final stages. Cleary will likely opt to run a similar rotation against South Sydney with all three of his starting back-rowers – Isaah Yeo, Viliame Kikau, and Liam Martin – playing 80.
Souths’ rotation, meanwhile, has been thrown off due to Burgess and Havili’s absences. Tevita Tatola will be relied on for around 60 minutes whilst Mark Nicholls probably hovers around the 35-to-45-mark. Hame Sele generally finds himself on the field for around half-an-hour, however, as the only recognised middle on the interchange, may be leant on for longer minutes along with Nicholls. The role Michael Chee Kam and Jed Cartwright play remains unseen. Neither are known as big-minute middle forwards, however, they will have to occupy some time among the big men. Rookie Davvy Moale has been named at 18th man and may be a late inclusion if Jason Demetriou is not satisfied with the go-forward on his pine. Souths’ interchange, as currently constructed, feels imbalanced meaning Moale or Jacob Host may firm as late swap options. Download Our Free NRL App
Penrith open the game as $1.36 favourites with bookmakers anticipating the men from the foot of the mountains will advance to their third-consecutive Grand Final.
Kick-off: 7:50pm Saturday at Accor Stadium, Homebush
Panthers: 1. Edwards; 2. Staines; 3. Tago; 4. Crichton; 5. To’o; 6 Luai; 7. Cleary (c); 8. Leota; 9. Koroisau; 10. Fisher-Harris; 11. Kikau; 12. Martin; 13. Yeo (c); 14. Kenny; 15. Sorensen; 16. Leniu; 17. Salmon; 18. O’Sullivan; 19. Eisenhuth; 20. Hopgood; 21. Turuva; 22. Smith
Rabbitohs: 1. Mitchell; 2. Johnston; 3. Tass; 4. Graham; 5. Milne; 6. Walker; 7. Ilias; 8. Tatola; 9. Cook; 10. Nicholls; 11. Koloamatangi; 12. Arrow; 13. Murray (c); 14. Nikorima; 15. Sele; 16. Chee Kam; 17. Cartwright; 18. Moale; 19. Taaffe; 20. Mansour; 21. Kennar; 22. Host
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