NFL Week 6 Preview & Analysis

Heading into Sunday’s action of the National Football League, there will be four very intriguing matches where both opponents are above the .500 mark.

These games are the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs, the Philadelphia Eagles at the Minnesota Vikings, the San Francisco 49ers at the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions at the Green Bay Packers. In the first of a weekly segment for The Sporting Base, we will profile each game and look at some of the reasons why each team has a chance. 

Houston at Kansas City

This is a fascinating matchup because it consists of the best team in the AFC South and the best team in the AFC West. It will also be a battle of the NFL’s two most prolific young quarterbacks in DeShaun Watson of the Texans and Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. The Texans are 3-2, and the Chiefs are 4-1. 

Why you need to consider the Texans:

• The Texans D is simply better. Despite giving up 32 points last week to a formidable Atlanta Falcons squad, the Texans only gave up a combined total of 48 points in their previous three games against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Chargers. It has been great seasons so far for linebackers Benardrick McKinney and Zach Cunningham, who each have 41 tackles. 

Why you need to consider the Chiefs:

• The accurate proficiency of Mahomes. So far this season, the Chiefs quarterback has been outstanding with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Mahomes may need to make some faster decisions against the Texans than he did last week against the Indianapolis Colts, where he was sacked a season high four times. 

Betting Insights:

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 15 day games.
• The road team has covered the line in eight of the 10 previous games between the Texans and Chiefs.
• DeAndre Hopkins has scored the last touchdown in three of the Texans’ last four games against the Chiefs.
• Deshaun Watson has scored the first touchdown in three of the Texans’ last six regular season games.
• Damien Williams has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six appearances at Arrowhead Stadium.
• Demarcus Robinson has scored a touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last four regular season games at Arrowhead Stadium.

My take:

The Chiefs will be tough at Arrowhead and will win a tight one within a touchdown. 

Philadelphia at Minnesota

In a battle of two 3-2 teams, the Philadelphia Eagles face a formidable opponent in the Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles are tied for first place with the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, while the Vikings are only tied for third with the Chicago Bears in the NFC North. 

Why you need to consider the Eagles:

• The Eagles are coming off two very impressive wins over the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. In the Eagles win over the Packers, they benefited from a turf toe injury that plagued wide receiver Davante Adams and in their win over the Jets, the Eagles dominated one of the weakest teams in the entire NFL at the moment. 

Why you need to consider the Vikings:

• The Vikings are very tough at home. In two wins this season at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings have outscored their opponents 62-26. 

Betting Insights:

• The Eagles have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 games against the Vikings.
• Each of the Vikings’ last eight games against NFC opponents have gone UNDER the total match points line.
• Adam Thielen has scored the first touchdown in each of the Vikings’ last three games as favourites.
• Dalvin Cook has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Vikings’ last five games.
• Zach Ertz has scored at least one touchdown in eight of the Eagles’ last nine games in October.
• Jordan Howard has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Eagles’ last three games.

My take:

The Vikings in a low scoring contest. The Vikings have given up only 73 points, the third least in the NFC. 

San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams

In this NFC West Division matchup, the 49ers (4-0) are one of two teams left in the NFL which are undefeated. The Rams are 3-2 and will need to tighten up defensively to beat the 49ers. 

Why you need to consider the 49ers:

• The 49ers have the stingiest defense at the moment in the NFC as they have only given up 57 points in four games. They also surprisingly lead the NFL with 200 yards rushing per game. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has been getting solid production from Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. 

Why you need to consider the Rams:

• The Rams should have won in Seattle last week, but Greg Zuerlein missed a game winning field goal attempt. Cooper Kupp is red hot. He has averaged over 100 receiving yards in each of his last four games. 

Betting Insights:

• The 49ers have covered the line in each of their last four games against the Rams following a win.
• Five of the Rams’ last six home games against the 49ers have gone OVER the total match points line.
• Cooper Kupp has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Rams’ last three games.
• George Kittle has scored a touchdown in each of the 49ers’ last two games against the Rams.

My take:

The Rams in a minor upset. The Rams are coming off a long week as they previously played on Thursday, October 3. The 49ers are coming off a short week, as they just played this past Monday against Cleveland. This added time off will give the Rams the edge. 

Detroit at Green Bay

In a battle of the top two teams in the NFC North, the Detroit Lions (2-1-1) will go into Lambeau on Monday and face a tough Packers squad (4-1) that went into Dallas and beat the Cowboys 34-24 last week. The Lions have been very competitive in every game they have played in 2019. In all four games, they have been within a touchdown. 

Why you need to consider the Lions:

•  Matthew Stafford is providing poise at the quarterback position. So far this season, the 31 year old Georgia product has completed 62.4% of his passes, has nine touchdowns compared to two interceptions and has an excellent quarterback rating of 102.6. 

Why you need to consider the Packers:

• Running back Aaron Jones is coming off the game of his life. Last week in the Packers win over Dallas, Jones had 19 carries for 107 yards and four touchdowns. 

Betting Insights:

• The Lions have won each of their last four road games after a bye.
• The Packers have failed to cover the line in seven of their last eight night games.
• In each of the Packers’ last five games as favourites, the highest scoring quarter has been the second.
• Kenny Golladay has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Lions’ last four games.
• Marvin Jones Jr. has scored the first touchdown in each of the Lions’ last two Monday night road games.
• Aaron Jones has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances at Lambeau Field.
• Davante Adams has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Packers’ last four October games against NFC North opponents.

My take:

With the Packers at home, the Lions will have a tough time at Lambeau. Green Bay should win by 10+ points. 

BY JEREMY FREEBORN