NFL Week 4 Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

What a week already. Three out of three on Thursday as I tipped the Broncos to win as underdogs in New York and the first two unit play of the season hit as Melvin Gordon found the end zone. We are going to keep that rolling here with the big day of NFL.

Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Redskins, FedEx Field

The Ravens struggled on Monday night against their main rivals in the AFC and perhaps Super Bowl, but Washington could get the backlash here.

The Washington offence is miserable. There is very little outside of Terry McLaurin to be excited about and there is only so much he can do. The defence is exciting, but the loss of Chase Young makes that defensive front a whole lot less intimidating.

We have seen than running quarterbacks can get the best of this Washington defence and there is nobody better at that than Lamar Jackson. He and the running backs can just kill this defence game long and it is hard to see how home team will keep up.

Rather than backing the Ravens with the huge handicap, we will go for the Baltimore points total.

• 1 unit Ravens over 30.5 points 1.88 with TopSport
• 1 unit Lamar Jackson over 70.5 rushing yards 5/6 with Paddy Power

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals, Paul Brown Stadium

The Bengals are an exciting team with Joe Burrow but whether they should be favourite over any team (maybe other than the Jets) is a real question.

The Jaguars were disappointing for many last week against the Dolphins but as any of you following these tips will know, I was all over Miami for that one. But the Jags match up well here. Their rushing defence is very strong and with Joe Mixon questionable. they could force Burrow to throw. The Bengals offensive line is stopping nobody right now and the Jacksonville defence will be in the backfield all game long.

Minshew has been very efficient and he should have his favourite target in DJ Chark back. They can win this one as underdogs and it is one of my favourite plays of the week.

• 2 units Jaguars +2.5 1.91 with TopSport

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Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears, Soldier Field

Ever since Nick Foles came in and led the comeback over the Falcons I couldn’t wait to bet against the Bears in this one.

Foles had one interception, should have had at least one more and for me, this was more about a Falcons collapse (again) than the Bears firing all of a sudden with Foles in.

The Colts are a really good team. They have a good rushing attack, a decent quarterback, good options in the passing game and an underrated defence that actually leads the league in yards against by a long way. The difference between these teams is much more than the line suggests.

The line suggests a big overreaction to that win for Chicago and it is something that we can take advantage of.

• 2 units Colts -2.5 1.84 with TopSport

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Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans, NRG Stadium

Two teams absolutely desperate for a win or their seasons could be over before they have even started. And that could make this a cagey game. Both offences are capable of putting up points with talented players scattered around the offence, but both of those offences have huge issues that shouldn’t be overlooked.

The total on this game has moved a huge 3.5 points from where it opened and that means there is now some value in the under. When so many people are on one thing, the value is often in the otherside and I think that is the case here.

• 1 unit Vikings/Texans under 53.5 1.96 with TopSport

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Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers, Levis Stadium

The 49ers continue to roll through teams despite an incredible injury report and while it feels like that has to come to an end soon, it doesn’t feel like it is going to be here.

But the win markets are not where I am looking here. The 7.5 point spread is just the wrong side of that key number of seven and for me there’s no value in the moneyline.

I am instead looking at the touchdown scorers and there is one name that stands out – Jeffery Wilson. He got on the board twice last week and he will once again lead the 49ers backfield with Mostert and Coleman out. He is better than even money to just score here. George Kittle returns and while that helps the passing game, he is a phenomenal blocker and helps the run game as well. So back Wilson to get in the end zone.

• 1 unit Jeffery Wilson any time touchdown 2.05 with TopSport

Expert Tips

• 1 unit Ravens over 30.5 points 1.88 with TopSport
• 1 unit Lamar Jackson over 70.5 rushing yards 5/6 with Paddy Power
• 2 units Jaguars +2.5 1.91 with TopSport
• 2 units Colts -2.5 1.84 with TopSport
• 1 unit Vikings/Texans under 53.5 1.96 with TopSport
• 1 unit Jeffery Wilson any time touchdown 2.05 with TopSport

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