NFL Playoffs Preview: Wildcard Round

In one of the most interesting Wildcard Rounds in recent memory, it’s sudden death for the third to sixth seeded teams in the AFC and NFC.

After a crazy finish to the regular season, the playoff seedings are set, and the remaining 12 teams imagine their path to Atlanta for Super Bowl LIII.

For this upcoming week, the first and second seeded teams in each conference (AFC and NFC) have a bye, and home-field advantage for next week’s Divisional Round games. In the AFC, the Chiefs (1) and Patriots (2) have this week off, and in the NFC, it’s the Saints (1) and Rams (2) who get the bye.

I will delve deeper into those team’s next week, in the Divisional Round Preview. For now the focus is on the teams playing this week.

AFC: Houston Texans (third) v Indianapolis Colts (sixth)

Part III of this seasons’ Texans v Colts saga culminates in a win-or-go-home playoff game. What could be more fitting for these teams?

In this game the Texans are favoured. They have one extra win and home-field advantage. In all playoff games, winning away from home is difficult. The Chiefs and Saints enjoy an incredible advantage as first seeds in that they will play every game at home until the Super Bowl, if they make it there.

The Texans enjoy that same advantage over the Colts, and that can’t be understated in such an evenly matched game. The Texans also have dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball. Deshaun Watson is a top-10 quarterback on his day, and DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t dropped a catch all year. On defence, JJ Watt is back to his game-breaking self: he quietly made 16 sacks and a league-high seven forced fumbles.

On the other hand, the Colts excel in areas that will challenge the Texans. The Colts offensive line, after allowing the most sacks in 2017, allowed the fewest sacks in 2018. The o-line’s ability to shutdown JJ Watt and company will inform the outcome of this game. If Andrew Luck can be his MVP-caliber self, that will also go a long way toward a Colts win.

Luck v Watson is the most important coin toss in a 50-50 game. Both guys have elite level talent and have played great seasons. But Luck and Watson also have similar weaknesses – holding onto the ball too long and making bone-head turnovers on occasion. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine one of these quarterbacks playing a near perfect game, and the other having two fumbles and an interception. Whomever achieves the former, will likely lead his team to victory.

Our Tip

The Colts may be the better team, but they could be deflated since just making the playoffs after starting 1-5 was such an achievement. The Texans have home field advantage and that gives them the edge.

Texans (-1.5) @ $1.92

AFC: Baltimore Ravens (forth) v Los Angeles Chargers (fifth)

This may be the most interesting game of the week. These teams faced only two weeks ago, where the Ravens controlled the game from start to finish.

The Ravens boast the AFC’s best defence, and their offence is one of the most peculiar (and difficult to gameplan for) in the league. Behind rookie QB Lamar Jackson, the Ravens operate a kind-of throwback college offence where they relentlessly run the ball with their running back and quarterback.

Since the NFL’s passing boom over the last few decades, very few offences have operated in this way.

For the last two months, pundits have been wondering when the Ravens’ offence would get ‘found out’. This offence is a paradox: in one sense it’s very difficult to game plan for a Lamar Jackson because not many practice squad QBs have that kind of blistering speed, and in another sense that kind of offence is one-dimensional.

Then it becomes difficult to know who will be the team that stops Jackson and his hybrid offence. The LA Chargers are an intriguing candidate.

The Chargers boast possibly the most balanced team in the AFC playoffs. They have playmakers up front (Joey Bosa) and in the secondary (Derwin James). They rank ninth in passing and rushing defence – that sounds like a perfect balance.

For the record they are just as balanced on offence with Philip Rivers throwing the ball, and Melvin Gordon running. Rivers was an MVP candidate until he suffered a form slump over the last two games of the regular season. He has the weapons at wide receiver (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams) to get back on track though. If the offence can get a lead early, Jackson may be forced to throw more than he’d like to.

Our Tip

The Ravens hold the psychological edge after their Week 16 win over the Chargers, but LA are a more well-rounded football team. They also offer great value on the +3 money line, if they go down in a close one.

Chargers (+3) @ $1.96

NFC: Chicago Bears (third) v Philadelphia Eagles (sixth)

Chicago are the most favoured team to win this week, and rightfully so.

Outside of a miracle, it’s difficult to envision a roadmap for the Bears to lose this game.

But at this point, ‘miracle’ is the only way to describe Nick Foles’ play for the Eagles in the playoffs. He did it last year, all the way to a Super Bowl LII victory. And to peg the Eagles as underdogs (again) would be to learn nothing from our experience only 12 months ago.

Foles will play in this game, after suffering a rib injury at the end of the Eagles Week 17 victory over Washington.

Even with Foles, the only player that can beat the Chicago Bears is their own quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, Trubisky has been in red-hot form, showing no signs of throwing the game away. Matt Nagy has put his young quarterback in a position to succeed all season, using his ability to make plays on the run.

Trubisky’s stats aren’t elite, but they’re good enough. He finished the season with 24 TDs to 12 INTs. That’s a 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio: not bad for a second year guy. The young QB might be peaking right now as well, considering he missed two games and then came back Week 14. That’s called getting rest at the right time. He has licked his wounds but also played his way into form over the last three weeks, ready for a playoff run.

As long as the Bears offence plays complimentary, mistake-free football, their elite defence will make life difficult for any opponent.

Our Tip

The Bears are a much better team than the Eagles – this one shouldn’t be close.

Bears (-6) @ $1.92

NFC: Dallas Cowboys (forth) v Seattle Seahawks (fifth)

Maybe the hardest game to pick of the round, the Cowboys and the Seahawks are so unpredictable.

The Seahawks may have a high ceiling and a low floor. One week they play flat against the 49ers, and lose in OT, looking like a one-and-done wildcard team. The next week, they dominate the Chiefs, looking like potential Super Bowl champions.

The Cowboys are a rollercoaster too, largely depending on star skill position players such as Zeke Elliott and Amari Cooper. Although both guys have been quiet since the loss against the Colts in Week 15.

That’s where the defence cleans up the scraps. The Cowboys have built their identity around their defence, and rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch.

To hang with Russell Wilson though, Dallas must put up points. Once again, the difference at quarterback gives advantage to the Seahawks. Wilson can literally do it on his own, but Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott needs his weapons (Zeke and Amari) to lead the way.

Our Tip

The Seahawks are the more playoff-experienced, trustworthy team, even away from home. Great value as underdogs too.

Seahawks (+1.5) @ $1.92

*Betting odds are provided by Neds and are subject to change