NFL Conference Championship Preview: Odds, Insights, and Predictions

This Monday, we’ll find out who the best two teams are in the NFL. In this preview, we discuss betting odds, key insights, and predict who will win, and go on to play in the most watched U.S. sporting event of the year: the Super Bowl.

When I reflect on the weeks before a Super Bowl and how we got here, I like to think about where the league was twelve months ago. That’s why I’m filled with excitement – this year’s Conference Championship games are way better than last.

Twelve months ago, we were gearing up for Blake Bortles and the Jags to take on the Patriots in the AFC. Barely anyone genuinely believed the Jags would win that game, and people had serious Patriot-fatigue. This year that fatigue remains, but the world has genuine hope as, the league’s (yet to be announced) MVP, Patrick Mahomes II stands in Brady’s way.

In the NFC last year, we had the Eagles and the Vikings. That one was a bit more of a toss-up, but these were two defensive teams with mediocre quarterbacks (although Nick Foles didn’t play mediocre). This time around, we get Hall of Famer Drew Brees and co. taking on the Rams, and everyone’s favourite coach, Sean McVay.

On top of the inherently more interesting storylines, we also get some offence. This year the top four offences in the NFL, are the four teams playing Monday. Last year, the remaining four teams were all top-5 in defence. Offence is always more fun, for the casual fan and the die-hard.

AFC Championship: New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs

AEDT: Monday, 21 January, 10:40am

There are so many variables to consider going into this game. By definition, the Brady-Belichick Patriots are known. We know how they fair in cold weather, the postseason, and on the road. The Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs are more of an unknown. We have learnt a lot in a relatively small window of time, but questions about whether Mahomes can lift the Chiefs’ playoff curse still remain.

Starting with the New England Patriots – what more can you say about this team? Here we are again, in the AFC Championship Game, and the Patriots are alive and kicking. The Patriots don’t get enough credit for the fact that this will be their eighth straight AFC Championship Game appearance. Over the last seven seasons they are 4-3 in these games. The actual record may take the sting off of how many times they’ve made it this far, but it shouldn’t. That is still a remarkable achievement, and they’ve won more total AFC Championships (10) than any other team.

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Now, let’s get to the weather – it’s going to be really, really cold. Word is that an “arctic blast” may hit Kansas City during this game. If that happens, temperatures will be well-below zero degrees celsius, and maybe even below zero fahrenheit.  

Cold weather does play a factor in NFL games, particularly for quarterbacks. Unless their name is Tom Brady. The Patriots signal-caller is 13-2 in “inclimate postseason games”. That record is probably due in-part to Brady’s ability as a quarterback, and in-part due to the historic versatility of Belichick’s Patriots. This team is malleable. Their ability to throw out last week’s game plan and treat each team as a different code to crack is what separates them from most teams. This trait bodes well for them in harsh weather scenarios – if they need to run the ball 50 times even though they posses the greatest quarterback ever, they will do it.

Kansas City may not share this same versatility, but they just beat the Colts in the snow. Most notable about that win, is that Patrick Mahomes II looked freakin’ awesome. We are talking about a young man who prepares for every throw possible. I am confident he knows his throwing limitations in the cold – and his limitations live beyond the threshold of just-about every other quarterback on planet earth. I am willing to go out on a limb and say that the cold weather in this game is a non-starter. Both quarterbacks can handle it, both coaches know how to game plan for it. Twist my arm and I’d say this is where the Patriots gain a slight advantage.

But that advantage is negated by the Chiefs’ home field advantage. Arrowhead Stadium is well-known for being the loudest stadium in the NFL. And the NFL Playoffs are well-known for being very home team friendly – in fact, no team who has made it to the Super Bowl has won a road game since the Ravens and 49ers in 2013. Also, the Patriots are a mediocre 3-4 in playoff road games. Advantage Chiefs.

And finally, I would be remiss if I didn’t discuss the coaches. Bill Belichick and Andy Reid are two of the greatest coaches in NFL history. Belichick has the head-to-head advantage: he is 6-2 against Andy Reid-coached teams, and 2-0 against him in the playoffs. But an interesting stat is making the rounds on twitter and in sports media: Belichick has coached 342 total games in his career, and only seven times his defence have allowed 40 or more points – Andy Reid is responsible for three of those seven 40 points efforts.

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One of those 40 point games was this year, back in Week 6. The Chiefs lost that game by three points, but that was one of those all-offence games, where the team that possess the ball last, wins. Considering the weather and the defensive improvements both teams have made, we should get a lower scoring game, and probably one in which the winner will fight hard, truly earning their trip to the Super Bowl.  

Our tip

The Patriots are tempting in cold weather, but Arrow Head will be loud and Mahomes will be accurate. Mahomes proved last week that he’s brilliant even in the snow.

Take the Chiefs outright @ $1.60

NFC Championship: Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

AEDT: Monday, 21 January, 7:05am

The Rams and Saints’ seasons have paralleled in an interesting way. They have been considered two of the top three teams in the league all season. They both had weaponised offences that could beat you in a number of ways. And they both hit a wall at a similar time. For the Rams, their wall was the Chicago Bears in Week 14, a game in which they only scored six points. For the Saints, it was their loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13. Both teams haven’t quite been the same since.

The Rams’ struggles have been more alarming than the Saints’. Neither team has put up the offensive numbers late this season that we expected. But the Saints have gotten by on an improved defence, and their brilliant offensive combinations (Brees-Thoms, Brees-Kamara).

The Rams did regain a bit of confidence last week against the Cowboys. Their rushing attack was unstoppable. Head coach, Sean McVay’s offence is a manufactured paradise for running backs. Many credited Todd Gurley for the Rams’ ability to run the ball during this season, but last week, when CJ Anderson dominated, everyone paid closer attention. Instead, we now know it has got more to do with the offensive line, and the way McVay uses innovative blocking patterns to get his running backs into open space.

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Luckily, the Saints have one of the best run defences in the league – second in rushing yards allowed by 0.2 yards per game. If McVay can get the better of the Saints run defence, the Rams will go a long way to winning the game. But, while his running backs thrived last week, his quarterback did not.

Rams quarterback Jared Goff was mediocre last week. He has been disappointing since the aforementioned Week 14 wall. McVay will need his young quarterback to play like he did during the first half of the season if they are a chance against the Saints. It’s difficult to see the Saints giving up 273 rushing yards, so when the time comes, Goff will have to hit a few deep targets on McVay’s much-loved play action throws.

The Saints are primed to win this game if they can force Goff to pick them apart. Don’t be surprised if they stack the box, and dare McVay to abandon the run. The Saints should have no trouble on offence, either. Even when things aren’t clicking, and penalties are aplenty (like last week), Drew Brees can and will pick the Rams defence apart. For starters, Alvin Kamara is the perfect safety blanket out of the back field. Brees checks it down to his running back whenever the kitchen gets too hot, or if there’s just nothing happening down field. He also has, in my opinion, the best receiver in football, Michael Thomas. Against the Eagles, Brees relentlessly went to Thomas for big third-down plays, because he knows that if he puts it somewhere in Thomas’ vicinity, he’ll haul it in. This is all assuming that the offence isn’t clicking, and Brees chooses not to use his other weapons. The Rams’ defence will have to play their best game of the season to control all those offensive variables, and the offence will have to get back to its early season form to keep up.

Our tip

Take the Saints for an outright win @ $1.56 and the over 56.5 on points scored. In the Saints’ dome, both teams should score 30+ points in a tight contest.

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