In one off the most stunning losses in the history of the 2026 French Open, world number one Jannik Sinner of Italy is out at the 2026 French Open. On Thursday, Sinner was defeated 3-6, 2-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1 by Argentina’s Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
Cerundolo had the service advantage. He had 14 aces and five double faults, compared to five aces and seven double faults for Sinner. Cerundolo also broke Sinner eight times during the match that saw Sinner have a chance to close out the match twice in the third set, but failed to do so.
Just how much of an upset was this for Cerundolo? Well, I think it is fair to say that most people have heard of Juan Manuel’s brother Francisco. Sinner was given a 99.8% chance of beating Cerundolo when the match started, his odds of winning the 2026 French Open were -300. Those were the second best odds to win a major in the history of grand slam tennis. The only player with better odds to win a major was Rafael Nadal of Spain, who was at -400 to win the 2009 French Open.
So why did Sinner lose this match at the French Open when he has looked so dominant during the Masters 1000 series events? Well, there are two answers that come to mind. First, Sinner’s game seems to beast suited for best of three tennis instead of best of five, and the second is he was impacted by the hot European heat.
Sinner should be the favourite to defend his title at Wimbledon. However, her was the dominant favourite at Roland Garros, and we know how that panned out.
