The official team lists are in for Cowboys vs Raiders, with North Queensland losing Jeremiah Nanai, Griffin Neame and Zac Laybutt, while Canberra have handed Coby Black and Malachi Smith their NRL debuts. With the Cowboys already finals-bound and the Raiders using their final game to blood youngsters, there are several strong betting angles across the try-scorer and player-prop markets.
Biggest Winners – Cowboys
Tom Chester
Chester has scored four tries in his past five games and retains his place at centre. That recent strike rate makes him one of the better Cowboys options in the anytime market.
Our Tip: Tom Chester – Anytime Try Scorer
Jaxon Purdue
Purdue has scored in three consecutive games and remains at centre with Tom Dearden back controlling the side from halfback.
Our Tip: Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
Robert Derby
Zac Laybutt’s concussion hands Derby the starting wing position. Against an inexperienced Canberra combination, he’s the obvious team-list-driven value option.
Our Tip: Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Cowboys
Jeremiah Nanai
Nanai is out after suffering a minor knee injury against the Tigers. The Cowboys expect him to be available for the opening week of the finals.
Betting Impact: John Bateman moves into the starting second row and should see a significant increase in minutes.
Griffin Neame
Neame is being rested due to a lingering toe problem, with Coen Hess promoted into the starting front row.
Our Tip: Coen Hess – Over Run Metres
Zac Laybutt
Laybutt is unavailable through concussion, resulting in Derby’s promotion onto the wing.
Betting Impact: Derby becomes the Cowboys outside back to watch for a potentially bigger anytime price.
Biggest Winners – Raiders
Kaeo Weekes
Weekes enters the game in excellent scoring form with five tries from his past six matches. With Canberra fielding an inexperienced side around him, his individual attacking ability becomes even more important.
Our Tip: Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Josh Papalii
Papalii will play his 342nd and final game for Canberra, bringing his remarkable Raiders career to an end.
The veteran should be heavily involved through the middle in his farewell appearance.
Our Tip: Josh Papalii – Over Run Metres
Noah Martin
Martin returns from a quad injury and goes straight into the starting second row for the injured Zac Hosking.
Betting Impact: His starting role makes Martin a more interesting option in the tackle and involvement markets.
Biggest Losers – Raiders
Ethan Sanders
This is one of the biggest selection calls of the match. Sanders is being rested, with highly rated youngster Coby Black handed his NRL debut at halfback.
Betting Impact: Canberra’s inexperienced halves combination makes the Cowboys’ defensive and head-to-head markets more attractive.
Corey Horsburgh
Horsburgh won’t travel after undergoing shoulder surgery, further reducing Canberra’s experience through the middle.
Betting Impact: Cotter, Taumalolo and Hess should have opportunities to dominate the middle.
Zac Hosking
Hosking is sidelined with a hamstring injury, opening the starting position for Martin.
Betting Impact: Canberra are missing another established forward against a powerful Cowboys pack.
Early Betting Verdict
North Queensland have won seven of their past eight games against Canberra, while the Raiders have brought in two debutants and are without several established players. That makes the Cowboys’ attacking markets the obvious starting point despite Nanai and Neame being rested.
Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
Purdue’s form is difficult to ignore, having scored in three consecutive games.
Our Tip: Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
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Tom Chester – Anytime Try Scorer
Chester has crossed four times in his past five matches and gets another favourable opportunity against Canberra.
Our Tip: Tom Chester – Anytime Try Scorer
Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
Derby’s promotion to the wing is the most obvious betting opportunity created directly by the Cowboys’ team changes.
Our Tip: Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Weekes is the Canberra player I’d target. He’s scored five tries in six games and his running game gives him opportunities even if the Raiders struggle overall.
Our Tip: Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Tom Dearden – Try Assists
Dearden came through his return against the Tigers and should benefit from another game alongside Jake Clifford. With Chester and Purdue both scoring freely, his creative markets appeal.
Our Tip: Tom Dearden – 1+ Try Assist
Josh Papalii – Run Metres
Papalii’s 342nd and final Raiders appearance gives Canberra every reason to get their club legend heavily involved.
Our Tip: Josh Papalii – Over Run Metres
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
Purdue has scored in each of his past three games, while North Queensland have won seven of their past eight meetings with Canberra.
The Raiders have also handed Coby Black his debut at halfback and are missing Hosking and Horsburgh, making this a good matchup for a Cowboys attack containing Drinkwater, Dearden and Clifford.
Our Tip: Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
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Value Bet
Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the selection-driven value play.
Derby comes directly onto the wing for the concussed Laybutt and should be available at a better price than the Cowboys’ more established attacking players.
Against a Raiders side experimenting with its combinations ahead of 2027, he’s worth targeting.
Our Tip: Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Jaxon Purdue – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Robert Derby – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Cowboys Try Scorer: Tom Chester – Anytime Try Scorer
Raiders Try Scorer: Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Playmaker Prop: Tom Dearden – 1+ Try Assist
Cowboys Forward Prop: Coen Hess – Over Run Metres
Raiders Forward Prop: Josh Papalii – Over Run Metres
Team Market: Cowboys – Head-to-Head
