FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 9th April

Saturday’s card is highlighted by the WATC Derby for the 3 year olds and it looks to be a race in 2 between Alaskan God and Trix Of The Trade in what is going to be a super way to finish the series. Cooler conditions forecast throughout the afternoon with easterlys during the day. Good 4 track, rail true.

Race 1 – 12:04PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

2. Express Time – 4. Acromantula – 6. Silkinize – 3. Reflectivity

Express Time comes back to the 1000m off a 3 week freshen. Likely doesn’t find the rail in front with Acromantula drawn underneath, but will find the breeze and eyeball that runner everywhere he goes. Is one of the toughest horses in the state and you can never discount her from the breeze, has gunned down Spin The Knife from that very position and gets back to her pet trip. They’ll bowl along at a genuine pace and for me, will come down to the more dogged of the two at the finish. Laqdar and this horse get on super, love the reunification. Given the differential in price being too big for my liking, I think $5.50 is an acceptable price to have something on.

1 Unit WIN

Acromantula is a high quality, 1000m sprinter, especially when he can find the fence like he can here. He’s going to have some pressure, but all the form around him is super. For the first time in his career he gets a claiming apprentice, but arguably the best front-running claimer there is. Very hard to beat but in the red? That’s very thin.

If there is a blowout, Silkinize races really well with no weight on his back and horses are just running for Lucy Warwick at the moment. The small field suits and he has a booming finish on his day.

Race 2 – 12:41PM PEPSI MAX HANDICAP (1100 METRES)

9. Sniparoochy – 5. Speed Dream – 1. Kia Ora Star – 4. Dunbar

Tempo looks moderate, Kia Ora Star should find the breeze outside Saffiano or even lead if they choose to take a sit. Sniparoochy should park leaders back from 1. Whiting will be looking to keep Speed Dream off the fence (maybe not as far off as last start…) and will need him to begin well to do so.

Sniparoochy is on the 7 day back up here after racing last Saturday. I tend to not be a huge fan of the 7 day back up for sprinters, but what I was a huge fan of was what she delivered at the races last weekend. Trying to ride her cold (rather than for speed) this prep as we found out in her trial, she dropped out from a good gate, got on the back of a horse taking her nowhere, took an inside run back underneath that horse and savaged the line, comfortably holding State Of Power and only 1L adrift of Metallon and Harmika, super form. Gets in here in a weaker race, on the minimum, drawn to sit closer. Will just need the splits when she needs them and if she can handle the 7 day back-up, she should be winning this. The $2.25 on offer is incredibly thin since markets opened, I’m looking at $3.30 my bet price.

1.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP

Dunbar a big X factor runner for a new stable. Polarising horse who has loved to burn holes in punters wallets in starts gone by, joins the Peter Fernie stable from the cerise and white who interestingly brings him straight to town and this is far from a deep field. After the claim from Watson gets in with 55.5kgs, and going through his form from last prep, its very solid for a race of this nature. Maps for a beautiful run 1-1 here, has run his best races in his career so far fresh, in a very even bunch he has claims. Trust issues.

Speed Dream couldn’t get it done 1st up in a weaker 60+ affair than this, and now drops back in distance. Did have to do it out 3 deep after a J.Whiting special, they didn’t go overly quick there but did hit the line well enough, liked the run. Can definitely win this, but I’m running out of chances with him.

Kia Ora Star was massive last start when we were with him when offered no luck in running, caught 3 deep the entire on a genuine enough tempo and went down in a photo to a horse who has since franked the form by running well again last Saturday. The sharp step back in trip is typical of Roy Rogers but the use of the claim here is brilliant. Gets in with 1kg more dropping back in grade in a lengths weaker field, Stanley can find the breeze here or potentially even find the fence if Saffiano takes a hold and from there even with the 60kgs, he’s going to be hard for these to run down.

Race 3 – 1:21PM SCHWEPPES TONIC PLATE (1100 METRES)

10. Nunes – 1. Swear To God – 3. Pot Shot – 14. Hidden Ruby

Nunes

Siding up with Nunes, purely due to the difference in map and the swing at the weights complimenting that in regards to how she matches up compared to Swear To God who both come out of a very high rating 2yo affair over the 1000m. Nunes in that event ran a faster L600 and identical L400/200m splits to the winner who settled in front of her in running. That runner goes up 2kgs at the weights and draws out in 13, while Nunes draws barrier 4 and gets a 2kg swing in her favour. Those change of circumstances considered, think this race sets up incredibly well for her to be turning the tables, despite also having a very nice opinion of the favourite. Marked $4.00 and $7.00-$8.00 a great price on offer.

2 Units WIN

Race 4 – 2:01PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM AUTUMN SERIES HEAT 3 (1200 METRES)

6. Premium Choice – 8. Yoyo’s – 7. Firesale – 1. Sir Mambo

Premium Choice

Tempo looks solid with a fair few speed influences here.

Premium Choice was to put it bluntly a good thing beaten last start. Was slow away from barrier 1, buried away back on the fence, followed the eventual winner through but got absolutely chopped out completely for a run over the final 250m. Never really saw clear air and was yet only 1.3L adrift of the winner who got the dream run through. Interestingly, since lats start, has changed stable from Coleen Maynard to Tony Triscari and Chris Parnham goes on here from barrier 6. The form out of that last race has more than held up, Pink N Gray was smashed in betting having finished behind Premium Choice and duly saluted last weekend. The 1200m is a big tick, the jockey change is a big tick, the map is a big tick given there looks to be numerous speed influences here for Parnham to park off, I think he’s comfortably the best bet of the day.

Has been smashed in early betting markets ($2.45 to $1.70) and definitely won’t be diving in at the $1.70, anything even money upwards will get me. Wait for Betfair.

5 Units WIN @$2.00+ BSP

Race 5 – 2:39PM COOL RIDGE HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Featherweight – 2. Harmika – 6. War Gem – 10. My Boy Eddy

Potentially messy race from a map perspective. My Marlaina led last start and won nicely but C.Parnham hops off for Featherweight and O’Donnell (quite the conservative hoop) goes on, potentially leaves door open for Featherweight to find a relatively soft lead if they want it. Green and Shady has shown early toe along with Above The Peg who’s drawn very awkwardly out in barrier 8. Guard The Safe led last start but that didn’t work so don’t think they’ll employ same tactics here, War Gem will want to hold a spot close to the speed.

Featherweight is going to get a superb run from the gate. Leads or leaders back, was huge last start in a midweek CL3 when off the track for the entirety and able to still absolutely donkey lick them. He looks a really progressive, untapped 3YO on the rise and meets another one who more than fits that mould here in Harmika, but maps for a much more economical run in transit than that runner. Carries weight, 3rd up now, I think there might even be more improvement here off last start. With what I’m anticipating to be a big head start on the main danger, I think she might just be a bit late to get there.

1 Unit WIN

Harmika is on the 7 day back-up after an incredibly luckless performance last Saturday. Was chopped out at a crucial stage when really hitting top gear and its ultimately cost her a win. CJP reunites, the rise back to the 1200m is a tick but the map is horrid from barrier 9. She either rolls forward and more than certainly gets parked 3 deep or they risk going right back and spotting a really nice horse in Featherweight a big start. There’s a huge task in front of her and CJP.

Really liked the recent trial of War Gem who should be kept safe, has form around Buzzoom last prep and maps for a gun run on the back of the speed here.

My Marlaina another who isn’t impossible.

Race 6 – 3:15PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

4. Watch Me Dance – 6. Staralign – 7. God Has Chosen – 5. Comes A Time

Cracking race, in my opinion the race of the day.

Watch Me Dance is the class runner of the field. Off the back of an impressive Albany trial, she went 1st up into a 1200m 78+ and ran super, hitting the line into 3rd running better late splits than Buzzoom before maybe just peaking a fraction on her run late. I think she’s back, and from barrier 5 should get a lovely run 3 back one off the fence for Whiting who’s going to have a good back to follow into it once they straighten. Gut feel tells me her class is going to take her a long way and at $7.50, despite the Wolfe stable being one I really struggle to catch, she’s worth a dabble.

0.5 Units WIN

Staralign from the box seat or potentially even finding the fence here for a super front-running apprentice is dangerous. Was super 1st up in a strong race over the 1200m, from the draw here in a race without genuine speed can land in the box-seat on the coattails of Sentimental Queen (questionable form) and Comes A Time (strongest race he’s met this preparation), or potentially even lead if they want to be aggressive, while he also drops 3.5kgs at the weights after the claim for Holly Watson who is flying at the minute and has experience on the horse before. Double figures, happy to get involved.

0.5 Units WIN

God Has Chosen is a potential star, there’s no doubt about that, the only problem I feel is that if he’s ever going to be vulnerable, it’s in a really strong field 1st up. The trials have been plain, however the most recent was an improvement on the 1st. 1400m fresh against some really strong race fit horses, I hope he comes out and wins and announces himself, but this is a set-up I’m happy to let him go around without me.

Comes A Time has been winning and winning well, but this field is lengths better than what he has defeated at his past 2, I can’t get near him at the $2.60 currently on offer.

Race 7 – 3:55PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (2400 METRES)

2. Tena Koutou – 12. Float Our Boat – 6. Without Reason – 10. Soviet Spy

Race 8 – 4:35PM SCHWEPPES-W.A.T.C. DERBY (2400 METRES)

3. Alaskan God – 8. Outspoken Lad – 1. Trix Of The Trade – 4. Pale Rider

The Derby, a race that the market suspects is a race in 2 and you’d be hard pressed to disagree.

I think Alaskan God is the real deal. 4 from 4 this campaign, has this perfect platform 1400-1800-1800-2200 up to the 2400m here 5th up ready to peak for his Grand Final in a genius yard. He travels beautifully, I love how powerfully he lets down when asked and even though he gets a negative weight swing on his opposition, I think if Chris Parnham can once again give him an 11/10 steer through what looks to be some traffic, he’s going to lap up the 2400m and announce himself a powerhouse of the WA 3yo ranks. $2.80 my bet price.

3 Units WIN @$2.80+ BSP

Trix Of The Trade was huge last start, and I’d admittedly sacked him after the prep he’s had getting out to these staying trips. Had no right to finish as close to them as he did. Admittedly, I do think a horse of his brilliance was assisted by the very dawdling tempo. Will there be more tempo here? I’m not sure, I certainly hope so as I think this will benefit Alaskan God more than TOTT, but if they do turn this race into a sit sprint affair much like the Melvista, with the weight swing he gets on the winner and a potentially clearer run from a wider draw, how could you knock him? It would be an incredible training performance at his 7th run of the prep, to get him from winning at 1200m to winning at 2400m 6 starts later.

If the 2 runners the market has zero’d in on encounter any trouble in the run, Outspoken Lad is the blowout. Huge in the Melvista and the barrier gods haven’t been having a bar of him until now (drawn 10/11 and 14/15 at his past two). Drawn beautifully, profiles like he will certainly stay out the trip, will sit on speed and give you a huge sight at double figures, goes in all tris/F4’s.

Race 9 – 5:15PM FURPHY HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

10. Trade War – 4. Holy Ghost – 5. Recapitulate – 12. Fred Dag

Staking Plan

• Race 1 Express Time 1 Unit WIN
• Race 2 Sniparoochy 1.5 Units WIN @$3.30+ BSP
• Race 3 Nunes 2 Units WIN
• Race 4 Premium Choice 5 Units WIN @$2.00+ BSP
• Race 5 Featherweight 1 Unit WIN
• Race 6 Watch Me Dance 0.5 Units WIN/Staralign 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 8 Alaskan God 3 Units WIN @$2.80+ BSP

5 Units locked in, potential for 14.5 units if we see our bet prices Races 2,4 & 8.

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