FREE: Ascot Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 30th April

Saturday racing at Ascot is highlighted by the Listed Sheila Gwynne. Expecting the track to be a soft 5, although with the weather today it may even return to a good 4 by midday tomorrow. Rail goes out 9m, one of the most even playing pads there is.

Race 1 – 12:19PM BELHUS RACING STABLES HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

4. Warm N Fuzzy – 5. Critical Altitude – 2. Ay Tee Emm – 3. Gunmetal Grey

Warm N Fuzzy

Thought the win when breezing outside Cross Statement and getting the better of him late was really strong and the figures backed that up. I think that’s the A1 form for this, should either find the breeze again here or hold the front depending on how aggressive they want to be with Pasajero/Mr Causeway. Slight query scratched at the gates last weekend, due to lameness. Comes straight into this 7 days later, trust Ash Maley the horse is ready to go. This is super thin, and with a very sticky map to contend with for the main danger Critical Altitude, confident Warm N Fuzzy is the one to beat. I’m $3.10, so the current $2.60 on offer means I’ll likely wait for a drift or be more than happy to stay out.

Race 2 – 12:56PM GLENROY CHAFF PLATE (1200 METRES)

2. Top Of The Pops – 3. Sweep The Leg – 6. I Love Your Smile – 4. Final Series

Top Of The Pops

Was with him on debut (little trumpet), really impressed with how soft that win was. Just ambled up to them and put them away, in what to me looked like 2nd gear. Chris Parnham jumps aboard, drawn well, see no reason why I’d want to take an angle against, similarly deep field here to me.
Can sit a pair or two closer in the run, and think you will get better than the current price, there are a few others involved here (namely the 2 Fernie runners) who I think will attract some good support. Really like him as a horse.

2 Units WIN

Would love to see some aggression with Sweep The Leg, rolling forward from the inside peg to try and lead. Otherwise, I think barrier 1 could be the worst gate this horse could have drawn. He’s a big, extravagant striding horse that needs room who was never suited in the Sires, got back off that farcical tempo and I thought hit the line quite well considering. If you pen that run, he was 3 deep on debut and runner up to eventual Karrakatta Plate runner up Baby Paris. That’s really strong form, and although I feel in time he profiles like 1200m will be short of his best trip, I’d love to see them try and hold the top with him here

Race 3 – 1:36 PM MORLEY GROWERS MARKET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

7. Hardly Ever – 4. Success Play – 3. Pray Again – 6. Mosquito

Really difficult race, no natural leader or any natural early speed, potential to become a really slowly run, messy affair. Formula for horses to overrace and I’m not a big fan of races that I really struggle to visualise the map with any real validity.

Hardly Ever looks the natural favoured runner, just ran out of real estate fresh behind Sneaky Chance, in hindsight 1000m was always going to be on the short side, just took too long to hit top gear. 1200m is a huge tick, also like that the Blinkers come off here. Lack of confidence in the map is why I’m erring on the side of caution, where does she land? Last? Or does Carbery try hold a spot closer or even try land in that box-seat role? I think she’s very talented, and regardless will be very hard to hold out, but will be looking for anything $3 upwards to be considering getting involved

Success Play had absolutely no luck this prep, caught deep doing all the bullocking work at both starts. Strong beginner, may land in front by default here? Might not be a bad move to rule all bad luck out of the equation here from barrier 1, Chris Parnham takes this ride over Featherweight

Featherweight I was surprised of the negative tactics last start, was sure they’d try lead or be on-speed and there was no such intention, maybe Saturday is the day?

Pray Again‘s trial was outstanding although it was 6 weeks ago, was there a setback since then? The barrier hurts, but I suspect he’s in for a huge prep, really nice horse with some X factor about him.

Race 4 – 2:14PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

1. Cuban Twist – 3. Arnie’s Boy – 2. Pambella – 5. Keeper Sweet

Standard, very evenly graded bunch for a Westspeed Platinum event, no great interest. Cuban Twist likely holds up in front here for Holly, Hip Wiggle rolls forward, Al Di La comes across and Ginger Green/Arnie’s Boy land the gun trail runs just in behind

Cuban Twist

Think this is a nice set-up for Cuban Twist and Holly Watson. Went straight to 1500m 1st up no trial, condition just gave way late there. Natural improvement with a run under the belt, Holly should be able to lead them up without a great deal of pressure or just drop in behind a Hip Wiggle if they show intention to lead. Gets the Winkers on and goes really well 2nd up, looks a nice each way play if she gets back out to that each way quote. Marked $4.80 favourite.

Pambella has come back super, just struggles to win (2 wins from 36) and likely needs luck from 3 back the fence here off what shouldn’t be an overly strong tempo

Arnie’s Boy is one I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bold run from. Was left a sitting duck last start leading up a 3 wide train, after the claim for Dyson gets in with just the 53.5kgs, looking back through his form his best career runs have been when he’s got in with next to no weight on his back. Not sure he’s an apprentice horse and think I might be going a run or two early, but he’s going to lob into a terrific spot here, can run a race at a big price. Marked $11 and think you might see $25+ late on Betfair.

Keeper Sweet was run off her legs in a brutally run 1800m last start, that’s proven to be a hot form race. Not sure where she gets too from the gate? Might try tack onto the back of Al Di La and follow him across, probably Jett’s best bet at finding some cover.

Cuban Twist and Arnie’s Boy the two I’m looking at, while Read The Riot Act is one I’m watching get further and further out in price who I could also potentially back but very low confidence race.

Race 5 – 2:50PM MT HALLOWELL WAROA DAY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)

9. Wee Ripper – 3. Downforce – 4. Sowar – 5. Blackwater Bay

Another low confidence race. These evenly graded fields are really tough, you’ve got a mix of horses who have beaten/been beaten by each other on numerous occasions, and most of the time these races can be dictated by race shape, tempo, good or bad steers. Wee Ripper may land in front by default, real lack of speed here, Wild Fusion rolls forward to sit prominent, outside of that there isn’t a great deal of tempo.

Wee Ripper

Think this race sets up nicely for Wee Ripper. Comes here out of that hot Buster Bash form race, with the lack of early pressure from barrier 1 O’Donnell can either take up the running himself or take a trail in behind one if they want to come out and find the fence. I like the platform that really strongly run 1800m gives him, he drops down in the weights, finds a really suitable map. Not a big each way punter, but this is one I am more than happy getting involved in on an each way basis.

1 Unit EACH WAY

Sowar

Sowar has beaten most of these before, reunites with McGruddy and loves sit/sprint races where he’s able to let down off slow tempos with his turn of foot. Marked $5.50 and he’s currently at $9.00 so I’m going to have a small play here.

0.5 Units WIN

Downforce is flying and a big danger, the 1800m is a new test but the yard seem to be churning out winners for fun at the moment.

Blackwater Bay always thereabouts in these events, did they head to Gero for easy kills or because they were unsure how well the horse is going? Hard to knock winning form.

Majinika is also flying, will have to round them all up from last, big ask for Jess Gray with the 60kgs.

Race 6 – 3:30PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

9. Sneaky Chance – 1. Apple Schnapps – 5. Cross Statement – 2. Material Witness

Doing the form Wednesday night, I was more than happy to be with Sneaky Chance here as the flying 3yo up against the older horses. Good speed on up top, lands midfield 3 pairs back one off, has the superior last start figure of the horses in this field and still gets in on the minimum being a 3yo. We don’t know where her ceiling is yet and despite the 1200m being a slight query, I think she’s the one they all have to hold out but at current prices, I’ve marked Sneaky Chance a flat $3.00, and my clear 2nd elect Apple Schnapps marked $4.40, so despite being really keen on the chances of Sneaky putting 4 in a line, Apple Schnapps will become the bet for me if Sneaky Chance holds solid and we see $5.00-6.00 about Apple Schnapps.

1st up no trial was less than a length off Express Time and Chantorque, I love that form and this race has far less depth than what he has been racing against in recent times. Takes the improvement out of having a run under the belt, capable of finding the fence out in-front for Louis, 1200m is far more suitable and that Son Son/Beret form looks so solid when you compare that to what these other runners have been racing against. Loves it wet as well so if there’s any give in the ground, with Sneaky Chance in the red or near enough to, he is an easy bet for me at the price differential.

Race 7 – 4:08PM SHEILA GWYNNE CLASSIC (1400 METRES)

3. Cryptic Love – 8. Buzzoom – 4. Amasenus – 2. Jadavi

Cryptic Love

I love a bit of theatre in racing, and Paul Harvey hopping back aboard Cryptic Love, 12 months on from this horse winning the very same race last year is something that definitely pricked my ears up. The horse is flying, no doubt about that, the small field suits and if he can keep her within striking distance, and a run does appear on the rail, going back through her form her last 3 career wins have all been rail-hugging rides. She will need luck, sure, a horse with her racing pattern always does, but I’m convinced if she can get out at the right time, her turn of foot is the best in this field. She’s due a change of luck.

1 Unit WIN

Buzzoom getting to the 1400m here (an obvious query for Amasenus) is your weighted and mapped winner here, undoubtedly. Amasenus likely lands on the rail with Buzzoom outside her, 1.5kg swing at the weights, I think if you swap the runs in the Marjorie Charleson you swap the results. I’m $2.25, and probably could have got her a touch shorter, but for some reason I still have trust issues with Buzzoom?

Race 8 – 4:38PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

6. Otheroneson – 3. National Guard – 8. Atlantis Beach – 1. Kia Ora Star

Does look Otheroneson’s race to lose doesn’t it? Beat himself last start, layed in at a crucial stage when it looked like he might go past Kia Ora Star and ultimately it has cost him the race. Barrier 1 here, lobs leaders back, likely leader once again KOS loves to roll off the fence on the corner, tends to do it every start and Scoreline in the breeze who will fold like a deck chair, likely means there will be room for Chris to extricate him and I think the most likely scenario is he is just simply too good and makes amends for last start. Although, at the price, one for the multis I think. Dreaming of a drift to anything around that $2 quote.

If nightmare scenario occurs and Chris gets pocketed on the fence, you can almost guarantee a 3 wide line here and National Guard will be the big beneficiary of that, Carbery genuinely thrives from that position and really liked his 1st run for the new stable.

Atlantis Beach is building, think he’s a really nice horse for Ciff Green, would like to follow him into something a little easier moving forward.

Race 9 – 5:10PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

7. Dash Doll – 1. Elafella – 5. Invictus Domini – 11. The Velvet Queen

Found this a complete raffle to end the day. Plenty of speed through Elafella, My Mate and Snippagem, it’s going to be a strongly run contest to end the day.

My Mate for me is a big query up in the weights at 1400m, was softening up a little late I thought last start over the 1200m.

Dash Doll probably should have beaten Elafella last start, Kate Witten was probably just a little too cute letting that runner get too much of a break between the 600 to the 400m and it’s cost her a result, not sure where she lands here from the gate? Was still a very good run.

The Velvet Queen’s got solid enough form from last prep, 1st up at 1400m off the back of a plain trial and you’re expected to take $2.90? Might have egg on my face but yeah, happy to take that on. Rogues Point trial form seems a little smelly.

Thought Elafella profiles like a horse who will only get better deeper into a campaign, Azzopardi a really strong front running rider and if allowed to find the fence I think he will be very difficult to run down once again, while I thought Invictus Domini was a much improved effort last start when not offered much luck, looks another sticky map for Jordy Turner to contend with but if offered some luck in running, he can win this too.

Staking Plan

• Race 2 Top Of The Pops 2 Units WIN
• Race 5 Wee Ripper 1 Unit EACH WAY/Sowar 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 7 Cryptic Love 1 Unit WIN

5.5 Units Staked.

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