FREE: Ascot Selections Saturday 3rd December Day 4 of The Pinnacles Northerly Stakes Day

Quality meeting for a quality G1. Rail goes out 6m and the fence was hot the last time we were at this position so will pay to gauge this early and whether they can make ground. Track a Good 4, warm conditions, terrific day for racing in the great state.

Race 2 – 12:45PM FURPHY PLATE (1000 METRES)

2. Aztec Ruler – 8. Goddess Of Giving – 1. Street Parade – 6. Saloon Bar

Really high quality, but very tricky, 3yo five furlong scamper and the return of Aztec Ruler brings great intrigue.

Aztec Ruler has had a noted couple of setbacks this preparation after being brought back in with his sights set on the Placid Ark, which didn’t eventuate. Stef has clearly taken his time getting him back and why wouldn’t he, I think he’s shown signs moving forward he can be the best horse in this race. Have liked both of his trials in heats that were filled with some of the sharpest horses we have in the state. Obvious query on the month between the most recent trial to the races, but you’d think with Hang Glider/Street Parade/The Great Hoya there is enough speed on here and Steve Parnham from 5 gets that lovely drop in behind them. Has to carry the 59.5kgs and prep hasn’t been smooth sailing, but still marked him a 3.60 favourite here in my market as I do think although maybe not the best 1000m type engaged, he is the best horse with the most upside and progression.

Street Parade maps for a lovely run. Has to carry some extra weight but booking of Jmac will mean he is popular in betting, no issue with the drop back to the 1000m, form through his 3 efforts this campaign has held up and he’s an honest commodity although perhaps hasn’t reached the heights some expected early of him. Saloon Bar even has me caught in between whether he will be effective over further or needs high pressure short course racing to see the best of him and that turn of foot he possesses, still does a bit wrong, recent trial very good. Goddess Of Giving couple of sharp 400m jump outs, could jump out of the box and 1000m on the sharp side for her but brings X-Factor, she gets out further from the $11 on offer and I’ll be happy top get involved for a small investment. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 3 – 1:25PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

5. Truly Inspired – 10. Queen Alina – 11. Roch Legacy – 4. Mystery Island

Couple of very nice race-horses bring interest to the usually very lacklustre staying handicaps in Truly Inspired and Queen Alina.

Truly Inspired absolutely walked in last start against very moderate opposition but scarily, gives the impression he is only getting better and better each time he steps out to the races. Queen Alina is a quality staying prospect in a similar vein, the strength of her win at Belmont a fortnight ago over the mile off 6 weeks between runs was that of a horse going places and she will only get stronger over more ground. From their barriers think they most likely land in very similar spots in-running and while I think at this current point in time, Truly Inspired short-term is in a better position to achieve more than her with people already discussing Perth Cups, I expect him to win this but for me the price discrepancy between the pair is a little too much. Queen Alina drops big weight, only better suited getting out over more ground (showed last start she can also hold a position and doesn’t have to go back to last) and off a more traditional race lead in. No real value at the $2 flat Truly Inspired who although on-top in my market, each way Queen Alina is a better bet in the scheme of things I feel.

Very confident the stablemate if for whatever reason those two encounter some trouble, Roch Legacy is ready to run a big race. Huge last start against the bias behind Megazone, screaming out for this sort of trip, $4.50 for the place looks very enticing. Mystery Island with John Allen aboard also catches the eye. View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 4 – 2:05PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Knot Secret – 9. Category Three – 1. Trade War – 4. Mojo Rhythm

Category Three going to be all the rage and rightly so, no luck and the only horse to make huge ground from back in the field down the wrong part of the track on Placid Ark day, 2nd best L400/200m splits of the meeting. Out to 1400m here looks what she is looking for now 3rd up. Good tempo here ensured through Castillo de Lago and you’d anticipate Seminole Brave heads to the breeze, just keeping in mind Pike might end up from a potentially sticky little alley a fair way off them and with the rail at 6m and the warm week we’ve had, on-speed might very well be the place to be. She’s very hard to beat, but just under my price at $2.50.

As a result, for the time being I’m going to side with a horse that is going to get a lovely economical run box-seating in Knot Secret.

Loved his first up effort at 1400m in a 66+ and always takes a run to come on. Was held up looking for runs for virtually the entirety of the straight after just getting caught in an awkward spot after they settled and getting shuffled back a long way. Box-seats here from barrier 1 back in grade to a 60+ and gets a very economical run throughout along with tactical field position on the favourite.
His 2nd up effort last preparation was in a strong race behind Sniparoochy where they posted a massive figure. Castillo De Lago always kicks hard into the bend, which should give Shaun McGruddy room to pop off his back into clear galloping room once they corner, I marked him a lot shorter than the current $6.50 available in my market and again, although Category Three was the head of my market, this is where the value lies for me currently. Happy to save on Category Three at anything close to $3, rather than go each way which is still on offer here.

2 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 5 – 2:45PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

4. Karalee Rocks – 6. Colossal – 3. Real Danger – 9. It’s All A Rumour

This could be just a case of if Karalee Rocks is within striking distance on straightening how far? She looks very, very good.

This is a race with speed influences I don’t expect to be there at the finish but there is pressure
Real Danger/Speedy Miss/The Republican if he jumps/Recharger and Saturn Black will all want positions which should ensure a solid enough tempo. That was no slouch of a CL5 she put away last start, from where she settled she had panels on them. Has to step up again and drawn to spot them a decent enough start with some extra weight on her back, but I anticipate if she is 2-3L off them on straightening she can be picking these up, there looks enough pressure here on paper for her to do so. Marked her 2.60 but track pattern will be crucial by this stage of the day. Would want $3 upwards for her to be winning this from last in the toughest field she has faced to date.

Its All A Rumour a 3yo who gets in with no weight, trial solid and drawn for a soft run while any sort of on-speed pattern will certainly play into the hands of Real Danger. View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

Race 6 -3:25PM TOUR EDGE HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

2. Tri For Us – 9. Special View – 3. Crescent City – 8. Rejuva King

Tri For Us

Horse is absolutely flying for Adam Durrant and although a big task for Taj, he won’t get many better opportunities for a Saturday metro winner. Last 2 cracks at the Ascot mile, in this grade beaten 0.1L Above The Peg (who went to a better grade of race and ran 2nd last Saturday) and 0.2L Saintorio in this grade (3rd WA Guineas, winner Lee Steer last Saturday) and after Taj’s claim actually gets in with 1.5kgs less than he carried on the weekend than he did in that race. Beat home Crescent City last start and gets 2.5kgs in her favour here. Holds a position from the barrier, if Taj can keep him out of trouble and utilise his good gate, I think he goes very close to winning this. Each way is very generous.

1.5 Units WIN

Zephyra tactics interesting from the barrier, go back and take their medicine? Train wreck last start, looked to be bolting and never got a crack at them. Hard to line her up this campaign, backed as if unbeatable when not firing a shot fresh then Blinkers went on, more suitable 1400m and we didn’t get to see what she had to offer. Now has a very sticky draw to contend with stepping out again in trip to the mile. Can win with the right run, in the camp that she would have gone close last start behind Alsephina with galloping room.

Playing on-speed, I’ll be happy to also have something on Special View who will certainly give them something to catch and relatively unopposed here you would think in-front. Never on the track last start behind Alsephina but whacked away really nicely to the line and has got a good platform of two good runs at the 1400m now stepping out to the mile. $13 is enough for a small play.

0.5 Units WIN View TOPSPORT Racing Markets Here! View PLAYUP Racing Markets Here

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Race 7 – 4:05PM ASCEND TROPHIES – JUNGLE DAWN CLASSIC (1400 METRES)

6. Vane Tempest – 1. Ginger Flyer – 9. Real Grace – 3. Pat’s Got Sass

Vane Tempest

This race changed complexion with the scratching of my best bet Sentimental Queen this morning #flat. Vane Tempest I marked a clear 2nd favourite in my market and the horse I’m now happy to be with. She’s airborne, finally draws a gate, was just beaten Hot Zed two starts ago when very unlucky and making her run against the pattern (who has since run 4th in the G1 Winterbottom) and was a far superior run in the Jungle Mist last start to Real Grace who opened up holding slight favouritism (marked has since corrected itself). Airborne, might need some luck if she gets strung up on the fence but with clear air, confident she goes very close.

2 Units WIN

Race 8 – 4:45PM DRUMMOND GOLF – NORTHERLY STAKES (1800 METRES)

1. Cascadian – 16. Amelia’s Jewel – 14. Treasured Star – 15. Bustler

So many angles of intrigue that will divide many a punter here in our final G1 of The Pinnacles.

Cascadian to me is a different class of horse to these, one of the best WFA performers we have in Australia consistently. Comes here fresh off an ominous tick over trial, unbeaten at the 1800m and the run of the meeting in the Champions Mile on Champions Day at Flemington behind Alligator Blood and Tuvalu. Will he be as effective on the very firm surface? And what sort of run will he get from that draw? The two queries with him. That Flemington run was on a Good 3, not sure after their winter the track regardless would have been as hard under foot as what he faces Saturday, but traditionally has been more effective with give in the ground. Best hoop in the world takes the ride, head says he has panels on this field at his top, trust in the camp, they have an air of confidence about them heading into this. Incredibly hard to beat if JMac finds a bum to follow in that 3 wide line.

History will tell you the high quality 3yos dominate this race, and Amelia’s Jewel certainly fits that mould. 50kgs a huge leveller for Cascadian, 9kg swing, drawn for the most economical run of the race, almost shades of Kay Cee taking the shortest way home only a few years ago. Can she run out a strong 1800m? Nothing to date to suggest she won’t, but that will always be the main query heading in, in a race of this quality taking on the older horses. Bloodlines says it’s right on her range but I think if she holds up leaders back and doesn’t land another pair or two further back than anticipated, she is going to be very hard to beat.

Bustler is tough as nails and gave her the perfect cart into the Guineas. Sire a 2 time winner of the race and produced a winner of the race since. Both get in with no weight, I think he’ll get the trip and get a really good trail into the race from the draw. Don’t think there is as much between him and the filly as the market suggests. Treasured Star was the run of the race in the Railway of the non-winners, maps to perfection and gets weight swings on a number of opposition. God Has Chosen potentially a forgotten horse, huge there tramping 4 deep throughout and kept coming, I believe getting out to 1800-2000m he will only be better, goes in exotics. Alaskan God at the crossroads after extremely disappointing Railway, this has always been the grand final and 1800m far more in his wheelhouse, forgive? I’m not so sure.

Race 9 – 5:20PM $4MILLION QUOKKA SLOT RACE 15TH APRIL 2023 HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

10. Burnya To Survive – 8. Cash Away – 12. Weaponson – 2. Flying Missile

Two favourites are the top two in my market at pretty similar quotes too.

Burnya To Survive it can be said on one hand, didn’t come up last pre but on other, think we also learnt he just doesn’t appreciate wet tracks. Two trials leading into this have both been super in the Blinkers, they go on here for the first time on race-day and Pike is the perfect jockey booking for him. Big, burly horse that takes a while to get warm but once he hits top gear he has a turn of foot as good as any in this race and potentially of an even higher quality. Working in his favour is this is a race that looks to have some very good tempo, allows Pike to just sit back and find that 3 wide moving line and get last crack at them. If track is playing fair and there isn’t a bias, he goes on-top for me.

1 Unit WIN

Cash Away clear next best and you’d think will have tactical field position. Still progressing as a horse and has to tick 1200m box but suspect it won’t be an issue. Very unlucky not to be in finish, or even win a case could be mounted, first up when held up at crucial stages behind Beads/Pixie Chix. Most other runners in this field have met their mark, focusing on the two with the most upside in the last. Weaponson was a great first run for the Morton stable, certainly has claims along the inside at a price to with some improvement from that fresh effort.

Staking Plan

• Race 4 Knot Secret 2 Units WIN
• Race 6 Tri For Us 1.5 Units WIN/Special View 0.5 Units WIN
• Race 7 Vane Tempest 2 Units WIN
• Race 9 Burnya To Survive 1 Unit WIN

7 Units Staked.