Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 22nd May | The Sporting Base
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Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 22nd May

May 22, 2021

Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 22nd May

The return to Belmont is upon us, with racing on a fresh pad something to be very excited about. The rain looks like its going to hold off and won’t hit until later in the afternoon, so you may see conditions change drastically towards the back end of the card. Rail in the true.

Race 1 – 12:02PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (2200 METRES)

3. Mackenzie Brooke – 1. Marocchino – 2. Bella’s Idol – 4. Saucy Jack


Race 2 – 12:42PM VALE JIMMY GALLAGHER PLATE (1000 METRES)

3. Bopping Blue – 5. Guard The Safe – 1. Flying Missile – 8. Dance Session

Bopping Blue

Thought Bopping Blue’s trial win this past Monday was a superb piece of work. Displayed some incredibly sharp early toe, drew away with another runner from the rest of the pack, was never headed despite being held together and shot away from that pestering runner late and loved his work through the line. The time was sharp, and drawn 4 for Pike, if he’s able to cross and find the fence out in-front and hold a horse like Flying Missile out wider in the breeze, he could prove very testing material.

1 Unit WIN

 

Guard the Safe

Another debutant whose lead up trial I loved. Jumped with the front few out of the gates but was drawn wide in the trial and snagged back. Pulled out 3 wide a long way from home, but once clicked up she displayed a very nice turn of foot and put them away with plenty in hand. If she can land leaders back here from the draw and find a split or a rails run opens up, she is another who can definitely be having a say late in the piece.

0.5 Units WIN

 

Dance Session is another who looks a very fast filly. Jump and run type who really impressed as well at her 2nd look at the 1000m trial leading all the way. If J.Brown can cross and find the rail, she is another debutant who will be a huge chance


Race 3 – 1:22PM TABTOUCH WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

4. New Amsterdam – 3. Born To Try – 2. Bollinger Boy – 5. Lord Lonsdale


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Race 4 – 2:02PM GLENROY CHAFF HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

13. Tri For Us – 10. The Verdict – 7. Sluice Box – 5. Trump This

Tri For Us

Definitely the horse with by far the most upside in the field here and maps to get the sweetest of runs in transit. Drops down to the minimum in what is a really weak 60+ on paper, drawn to sit in the box seat one back one off and think the horse that pipped her on the post last start Bragwell would start a clear favourite (as she currently is) in a race like this. Think she really should be winning in a weak 60+.

2.5 Units WIN


Race 5 – 2:45PM CTS LOW LOADERS HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

1. Puli – 5. Bright Diamond – 3. Universal Pleasure – 2. Home In Five

Puli

Really like the set-up here for Puli who should really get race conditions to suit. Went around 1st up in a Class 5 at Pinjarra, had to do plenty of work early to find the top and was only grabbed in the final 50m by a couple of horses who were deadset flying at the time. Comes here off a 41 day freshen which generally isn’t ideal but won last prep off a 35 day freshen with this break intentional to get him back to Belmont, a track he thrives at (3 starts for 2 wins and a 2nd placing). Gets back to Belmont, maps to jump, roll and find the top on his ear in his favoured wet conditions, and although I concede Bright Diamond looks a nice horse and is very hard to beat, her trial was less than convincing to my eye and am happy to spec Puli here at a very generous price.

1 Unit WIN

Universal Pleasure is another I think has snuck under the guard here. The fresh performance last prep when arguably unlucky not to have beaten Wilchino was super and rated through the roof. Gets extra weight here but a smart claim from Ramoly and a very soft map in transit will give him every chance to have his say. Not sure the rain will be to his liking.

Bright Diamond was super impressive in her 1st prep, Pike gave her some epic steers and they have clearly been sitting on her to get back to Belmont before unleashing her again. The most recent trial however just really didn’t do a lot for me. Kyra had to really stoke her up and ride her out and given what finished behind her, you’d think, if she’s as good as some might think, she would have put more of a gap on them given the amount of effort she was asked for. Deserving favourite, but I’m taking her on at just over even money.

 


Race 6 – 3:20PM AMELIA PARK HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

11. Real Grace – 8. Timely Outburst – 2. Kallaroo – 5. She’s God To You

Real Grace

We missed out on cashing in last week on one of Bob’s resuming 3yos but Real Grace is another who just looks well above average. Scintillating 1st up win this track last prep and has had 2 1000m trials in the lead up to this fresh assignment, the latter ultra impressive with the young apprentice in the saddle. There is plenty of speed in this and Pike should be able to land her midfield or just worse with a smother, peel her out to middle and let her put on display that dynamic turn of foot she possesses. Will love the sting out of the track.

3.5 Units WIN

 

Timely Outburst

1000-1300m always going to be questions asked no matter what way you look at it but I personally think this filly is crying out for more ground. 3/3 against albeit much easier opposition than this, I’ve been taken by the way she has shown her capability of burning the candle at both ends. Her last 2 victories this prep she’s sat on-speed and genuinely been running away from them through the line, with the horse that ran 2nd to her Material Witness only beaten on Wednesday, behind another handy one in Wiener Waltz, by a bad gate. This is by far her toughest test, and with the other speed influences engaged the map is a tough one to plot for her from 7, but if she steps well and Hoppy can land her in the breeze or the 1-1, I believe she’s going to look the winner at some stage. Tend to think the market will trend away from her and you’ll see a big price late on Betfair.

1 Unit WIN

 

Plenty of respect for Kallaroo who should also run a big race 3rd up. Comes out of a very high rating 1400m event behind She’s God To You where he got caught up in some traffic in the straight and finished strongly to hit the line alongside a couple of subsequent winners in Divine Pair and Bragwell. Love the senior going back on and with the right run back to Belmont where he can get his toe into the ground, I’m anticipating he will be close to his peak. Big price on Betfair late and definitely worth finishing the race square.


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Race 7 – 3:55PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

9. Billy Ain’t Silly – 3. Mrs Browns Boy – 1. Double Digit – 10. Karijini Aurora

Mrs Browns Boy

Really hope Kennedy (hard man to trust) is more aggressive than he was last week here in a race that lacks any real tactical speed outside the favourite. The last run had plenty of merit and now gets back to his pet track/trip (won or placed at 7 of 11 starts) and his favoured rain-affected going. Has won off the 7 day back-up previously and think if Kennedy can land him leaders back or one back one off, he can run a big race at a big price. Effectively drops in grade from last week and drops half a kilo in weight.

0.5 Units EACH WAY

 

Race 8 – 4:25PM SKYRACING.TV-PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES FINAL (1400 METRES)

7. Tiff Has Spoken – 3. Zachariah Beau – 9. Jarman – 2. Super Ex

These $100,000 country final races are always messy affairs but think there are a few horses worth a few sheckles here.

Tiff Has Spoken carries by far the best form into this event and begun his prep with a fresh run over 1300m at Northam which broke the track record behind Super Ex, battling on into 3rd despite never being on the track throughout. Thought he deserved to be a clear favourite in this event and will definitely be more primed 2nd up. 2nd up last prep ran 3rd in a 66+ over this journey less than 1L behind Red Publisher on Sophie’s Song.

Jarman is one at a big price I can definitely entertain as a winning chance but probably won’t appreciate it being wet. The lead up trial prior to the fast-finishing fresh 3rd at Kalgoorlie signalled that he is primed for a career best preparation, hitting the line super under a hold in behind subsequent Saturday winner Son Of Bacchus. Didn’t get an ideal race shape fresh when covering extra distance in the run and having trouble finding the right back to follow to toe him into the straight, but gets the Pontiff on who, if he can land him in that 3 deep train, should get him into clear air at the right time.

Zachariah Beau is absolutely flying this prep and this is his Grand Final, just wish he’d drawn a slightly better gate. Joey will park him in a 3-4 deep train with some cover and he will be launching late, loves it wet.

Race 9 – 4:55PM HEINEKEN 3 HANDICAP (1300 METRES)

10. Comfort Me – 11. Angelic Miss – 4. Aberdeen Queen – 3. Albukhturi


Staking Plan

Race 2 Bopping Blue 1 Unit WIN/Guard The Safe 0.5 Units WIN

Race 4 Tri For Us 2.5 Units WIN

Race 5 Puli 1 Unit WIN

Race 6 Real Grace 3.5 Units WIN/Timely Outburst 1 Unit WIN

Race 7 Mrs Browns Boy 0.5 Units EACH WAY

10.5 Units staked.


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