Belmont Selections & Staking Plan: Saturday 14th August

The sun is out, the track is drying, the rail is in the true and we are getting involved on Belmont Newmarket day. Some prices are gone but will get back out with market percentage closer to the start of each respective race so will pay to bet BSP on the exchange late or to hold fire until close to jump. Anticipating the inside will be the place to be today, especially early in the day.

Race 1 – 11:42PM AMELIA PARK LODGE PLATE (1400 METRES)

7. Flower In The Wind – 2. Success Play – 6. Kelly’s Lassie – 5. Born To Be Lucky

Race 2 – 12:22PM FREE ENTRY TO BELMONT PARK HANDICAP (2100 METRES)

5. Zaratite – 4. Treasured Crown – 6. All Man – 7. Mass Effect

Race 3 – 1:02PM TABTOUCH – WESTSPEED PLATINUM HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

1. Speedy Miss – 4. Looks Like Magic – 3. Beat The Bell – 2. Blazing Away

Race 4 – 1:42PM SILK VENEER PANELS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)

3. Nobel Laurence – 1. Ouqba Ted – 6. Megazone – 2. No Apology

Nobel Laurence

I had a fair crack at seeing if I could get him beat by anything in the field but I just kept coming back to Nobel Laurence. That last start win in a strong 3 year old race was huge when given an absolute 10/10 from Lucy Warwick, and the form from there has proven to be super since, with Reign Of Fire and Jedi Mind both very easy subsequent winners. Pike on is a huge tick, you can trust he’s gonna drop him out and find the right back to follow in the run to take him into the race and I just think its a case of the best horse in the race with the best jockey aboard. The red is very skinny, I have marked him $1.90 chance but am only willing to get involved at $2.10+, hold fire to late or back BSP.

4 Units WIN if $2.10+ SP

Ouqba Ted is one I Just wanted to quickly touch on, who’s got absolutely no fresh form, no Belmont form or no wet track form under his belt whatsoever. His most recent trial, when half a length adrift of Indian Pacific, he had absolutely no right to get as close to them as he did. He’s motored home along the rail into 2nd, running past a horse by the name of Samizdat who was having his ears ridden off down the outside, also beating home horses the likes of Son Of A God, Neufbosc, Malibu Style and Laverrod. Purely, off the back of that piece of work, he might well just be flying. If he gets out to a really big price on the exchange then I’d be happy to have a few sheckles.

Race 5 – 2:22PM CROWN PERTH HANDICAP (1000 METRES)

5. Strathmore Rose – 2. Olga Louisa – 9. Hell’s Belle – 4. Amelia Bedelia

Strathmore Rose

Price is completely gone after heavy backing/scratchings. Was my best of the day when she was $4.40 early yesterday but the money came, the price vanished and then the 2nd favourite was scratched. Although we didn’t get the chocolates, was absolutely stoked with the run 1st up.
Absorbed a frantic tempo, loomed the winner at the 200m before just peaking on her run late. She probably just lacked a bit of conditioning but when you factor in how quick they went out in front, the heavy 10 track and the fact she was fresh, all in all it was a super effort.
She gets a 3kg swing on Blazing Billy here, will have taken plenty out of that fresh performance, maps to land leaders back in running and when Olga Louisa gives her traditional little kick once they turn for home, it should give Madi enough room to get out and yeah she just looks very hard to beat. Had marked her $2.60 chance when the fields were full and there were no deductions, but at the $1.85 I’m more than happy to let her through to the keeper. If she gets right back out, don’t be afraid to have a whack (I will be).

Olga Louisa the danger for me. Going very well and should get a very soft lead. Went around in a 72+ last start and was only beaten just over a length in a race where the form has stood up since. The wetter the better and will be hard to run down if she holds her form. On-pace runners will be of no disadvantage.

1 Unit WIN if $6+ SP

Hell’s Belle also worth a watch fresh.

Race 6 – 3:05PM DEVIL’S LAIR HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

2. Lonsdale Lady – 1. Kelly’s Callisto – 5. Picture Perfect – 7. Mr Mt Walker

Race 7 – 3:40PM PRIV FASHION PLATFORM HANDICAP (1200 METRES)

5. Crystal Spirit – 1. Don’t Fuss – 4. Cliffs Of Comfort – 2. Jericho Missile

Crystal Spirit

Really like the chances of Crystal Spirit in this. His fresh run was super over the 1000m scamper when closing powerfully from back in the field. The run was made more meritorious by the fact that the race was dominated by those on-speed. The rise to his pet trip of 1200m here should suit down to the ground with the run under his belt, this looks another very moderate tempo and he should be well-equipped with the turn of foot he possesses to be powering over the top of these. Really keen. Set to finally return to the winner’s stall after an injury interrupted career.

2 Units WIN

Race 8 – 4:15PM HEINEKEN-BELMONT NEWMARKET (1200 METRES)

11. Son Of A God – 1. Indian Pacific – 8. Tellem We’re Comin – 4. Samizdat

Race 9 – 4:55PM HAPPY 60TH BIRTHDAY MARK WALKER HANDICAP (1600 METRES)

10. Brave Dream – 3. Mr Delegator – 1. Aberdeen Queen – 5. Seminole Brave

Staking Plan

Race 4 Nobel Laurence 4 Units WIN @ $2.10+ SP

Race 5 Olga Louisa 1 Unit WIN @ $6+ SP

Race 7 Crystal Spirit 2 Units WIN

2 Units confirmed, potential for 5 more if we see prices late.

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