Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Railway Stakes Day 21st November | The Sporting Base
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Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Railway Stakes Day 21st November

November 19, 2020

By Rylie Morgan
Ascot Tip Sheet & Staking Plan – Railway Stakes Day 21st November

27 degrees and sunny for the biggest day of the year in WA racing. Track will return to the Good 4 and the rail goes out just the 3m, meaning the inside 3-4 lanes will be untouched pad as the rail was out 9m last Saturday on the bog and 16m with the cutaway midweek. This means it could pay to stick to those inside few lanes early in the day given they are the untouched grass, ideal to take note of any track bias if there is any (fingers crossed they’ve drained her well and she’s in perfect knick). South-westerlys 20-30km early in the day, flattening out to 15-20km southerly in the arvo. Have previewed every race with selections, not all are unit plays bear in mind. Some keener on than others.

  • Our WA Tipping Results Results: +23.33 Units (since 01/07/2020)
Race 1 – 12:09PM TOURISM WA TROPHY (1200m)
3. Long Beach – 5. Boomtastic – 4. Niccovi – 1.  Carocapo
Long Beach the last time we saw him ran 2nd behind Winterbottom fancy Elite Street over the 1100m. Jumped from barrier 3, was slow away and settled 3 back the fence. Really only found the gaps with 200m to go and ran home strongly for 2nd. 1200m camping off them here in the 3rd pair with Pike back on looks a very nice set-up for a horse with the best turn of foot in the race. Small field means he won’t be too far off them and looks really hard to beat, but well and truly short enough at even money.
Boomtastic came out of that same form race as Long Beach behind Elite Street last start, breezed outside Cliffs of Comfort on what was a pretty hot speed, just ran out of gas and was only swamped very late in the piece. The 1200m isn’t an issue and gets a much nicer race set-up here and should be able to breeze again outside a more moderate tempo. Loses the apprentice and gets Johnston Porter which is a positive, to me will be right in it, especially if the track is favouring those on-speed.
Niccovi I was really keen on his chances last start before an almighty flop, got the run of the race and just gave absolutely nothing when the pressure cranked up. Not to mention this is harder, need to see something much better.
Carocapo was 1st up over the 1200m, jumped to the front to control things, but condition gave way and was swamped early in the straight, weakening to finish 9th. Always improves massively 1st to 2nd up but not sure he is strong enough to keep these out, great stats track and distance, should control out in front, rail being hot early brings him into play.
Verdict:
Long Beach on top, but not really too keen to get involved here, as he is well short enough in the market.
Race 2 – 12:49PM MUMM CHAMPAGNE-CRYSTAL SLIPPER STAKES (1100m)
5. Liwa – 11. Flying Missile – 12. Heavenly Waters – 1. Diamond Blue

Crystal Slipper Stakes for the 2 year olds over the 1100m. 7 first starters and the juveniles always make for a headache of a race so won’t go into too great of depth here…

Of the started brigade, Liwa has to go on-top based off last start and the starting price profile. The money came off the back of 2 impressive trials, sat in the box seat in the run, loomed as the winner and just peaked on his run, post-race revealed she had suffered from heat illness in the run, so have to be somewhat forgiving. Draws really well again here and looks to be a main hope.

Of the debutants, really liked the trial of Heavenly Waters for a yard not relatively known for their 2yos. Did it easily out in front in a 4 horse field and really liked the way she responded to riding, pricked her ears and kicked away from them, looked to be a fair bit left under the hood.

The Parnham debutant Flying Missile also trialled like a rocket at the 400m jump outs and should lead this here from barrier 1 which is always a good spot to be for the juveniles as they don’t have too much to think about. If the rail is hot early and he’s fit enough, he could take some running down. Just can’t work out why Laqdar is on and Parnham is on the stablemate when this one trialled much better? Other one must have shown more since only explanation.

Not a race I’m overly enthused about, clearly..

Verdict:

I’d be heading to the bar, but if desperate for a flutter on the juveniles, Liwa and Flying Missile look the two for me.

Race 3 – 1:29PM TABTOUCH – BETTER YOUR BET HANDICAP (2200m)

4. Midnight Blue – 3. Red Hot Tip – 5. Paddy’s Shadow – 6. Come Right Back

Midnight Blue goes on-top here but again, isn’t a race I am overtly enthused about. Has put 3 good runs together so far this prep culminating in a win last start over the 1800m when we were with him. Was slow away, Laqdar parked him up not 5, but 6 back the fence and think Laqdar has to be best mates with Moses, because the seas parted and he flew home along the rail to win after being in an impossible position on the turn (had called Laqdar every name under the Sun by this stage). Despite the nature of the win, Laqdar was able to save him a stack of ground taking the rails run, with everything going right and he still just only got there. Steps up in grade and distance here but gets the Wizard back on-board for the apprentice. The map is a little sticky given he has a knack for being slow out of the stalls and more than likely gets buried back in the ruck here, but if the Wizard can weave some magic and get him some clear air, he’s still going to be hard to hold out up in trip, horse ticking along really nicely.

Red Hot Tip will appreciate the extra distance which will suit him down to the ground but question marks around the prep? 3 weeks between runs from 1st to 2nd up and now up to the staying trip for the first time a month between runs and the bar plates go on so clearly something has not been right with him. Gets a very friendly race shape and map here to try and get them all chasing early if Hilly can rate him right, not discounting the big boy even with the plates, although would’ve much preferred without.

Come Right Back is a horse that has really come on as a staying prospect this preparation. Was given an absolute peach 2 starts back by Peter Hall when winning midweek over this track/trip, before stepping into a Saturday metro grade staying contest where he ran a big race behind very promising cerise and white galloper Treasured Crown. Drew the rail, threw his head around a bit early before settling down 3 back the fence. Had to head back to the fence at the top of the straight, and was just grabbed late by Treasured Crown, with Mosseratti 3rd and a gap back to the rest. Maps to get another beautiful run here for Hall from gate 5 where he can hopefully position up one off the fence, and should provide some stiff opposition.

Paddy’s Shadow I would have been very keen if she’d drawn a gate to knock off the top 2 in the market. Put in 2 big runs over the staying trips, finishing on the heels of Leading Girl and Double Digit, who was flying at the time, before dropping back to the mile for a barrier trial behind Tollman, dropped out to the rear, encountered some difficulty when Noir De Rue knuckled and really hit the line nicely. Loves Ascot, big chance if she gets the right run.

Not convinced Adornment stays, not for mine.

Verdict:

Midnight Blue top pick here, but not overly keen to get involved. Paddy’s Shadow and Red Hot Tip chances at big odds if you want to work around the favourite.

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Race 4 – 2:09PM TABTOUCH-PLACID ARK STAKES (1200m)

4. Chantorque – 2. Acromantula – 5. Mystical View – 3. Queen Brown

Chantorque is a horse I have plenty of time for. Stepped straight into Saturday grade 1st up this prep over the 1000m when beating a handy field when not much went right in the run, before an arrogant win back against her own age last start when easily accounting for Charleton Eddie in a 4 horse field. The 1st victory has proven to be a very strong form race since, with 3 subsequent winners (Herself, Chesten Flyer, Schoolhouse Rock) and many other very nice runs. Breezed outside Charleton Eddie and cruised past him and to my eye, looked to still have a fair bit left. Maps to get another beautiful run box seating the leader, untried at 1200m is the query, but don’t think it will pose an issue, winner’s win (3 from 4) and she’s very smart. Hard to beat and on an upward spiral.

2.5 Units WIN

Acromantula is a very interesting runner. Having his 2nd start after a very nice win on debut with the top weight when jumping an even money favourite off the back of 3 very impressive trial wins. Possesses really good early speed and should be able to take a sit outside Charleton Eddie or potentially even lead here if they change tactics with that runner. Ran some really nice sectionals (2nd fastest race L600/400/200) which suggest the step to 1200m will only suit better than the short course, and was impressive in the fact that he is able to run those sectionals up on the speed, making life very difficult for those behind to make up enough ground. Drops 4.5kgs here, maps to get a nice run on the speed and will be in it for a very long way, have an opinion of this horse and think he is very good. Over my price.

1.5 Units WIN

Mystical View just hasn’t got through the wet ground at her last 2, still convinced she is very talented. That runner up in the Belgravia on a dry deck, when savaging the line alongside Magical Dream on a day where it was extremely difficult to make ground was impressive and here finally gets the shades on for the first time and Pike in the saddle, one of the best gear/jockey combinations you can find. Can sit off them from the draw and get the last crack at them, dropping back 1400m in trip off a bog track run isn’t ideal but wary.

Queen Brown brings the best form into the race here, with a 2L 2nd to boom horse Clairvoyance before a couple of hard luck runs in the Belgravia and Burgess Queen when not offered much room at critical points in the race. If she can finish off like she did behind Clairvoyance then she is right in this but even when the splits have eventually come at her last 2 she hasn’t exactly screamed “back me next start”. Can’t have here off that. BP back on a positive and the smaller field will suit here.

Verdict:
Two horse play, backing both Chantorque and Acromantula as both are over my current prices, with a heavier stake on Chantorque.
Race 5 – 2:44PM PEOPLESTART HANDICAP (1400m)

12. Western Empire – 8. Tiff Has Spoken – 2. Sophie’s Song – 4. Phoneme

Western Empire looks his race here if they don’t get a scratching in the WA Guineas. Spruiked him as overs before the Fairetha where he was an absolute moral beaten. Parnham got no luck in the run, couldn’t slot in and got parked 4 deep without cover the trip. Given none but still came at them late to miss in a photo behind Kallaroo. The Wizard hops aboard, maps to get some cover this time midfield from 5, promising 3yo coming up against some not so stiff older horse opposition which has been a recipe for success of late. Again, just feel it is his race if they go here.
 
3 Units WIN
Tiff Has Spoken comes here 2nd up off a big 1st up, no trial run when 2nd behind Point Taken over this track/trip. Drew wide, pressed forward early and was eventually able to park up worse than midfield 3 deep with cover, took off well before the turn as she had to work to get around a slowie and finished off very well when just grabbed in the last 25m by Point Taken. Draws much softer here but likely lands 3 back the fence, which could spell traffic. Will be fitter for the 1st up run and could go very close for the Pontiff with the right run, given the awkward map from 3.
Sophie’s Song drew wide last start over the mile, had do some grunt work early to find the top and ran them along at a solid clip. Was travelling beautifully at the top of the straight and was just beaten by a better one in Tollman. It was a big run considering leading was not where you wanted to be on the day, with not one leader winning in 9 races. Drops in grade here but gets an extra 5.5kgs for her troubles. Should get it cheaply out in-front and gets a senior jockey back on, great track/distance stats but just not sure. At her right price, and will be assisted if there’s is any on-pace advantage on the day.
Verdict:
Western Empire the winner if they don’t get a start in the Guineas where he is 1st emergency. If there is a scratching and he comes out here, Tiff Has Spoken and Sophie’s Song clear two on-toppers at greatly reduced prices to what they currently sit at.
Race 6 – 3:20PM SKY RACING-W.A. GUINEAS (1600m)

2. Dom To Shoot – 17. Western Empire – 9. First Law – 12. Magical Dream

Dom To Shoot is where we land on the best betting proposition of the day for mine. Come out of the Fairetha where from gate 11, was caught 4 deep with/without cover at stages the trip off a walking tempo and still rattled home in the fastest L1000/800/600/400/200 splits of the race, signalling that the mile is going to be his trip. His last 200m was easily faster than anything else in the race by some way. There is an abundance of more speed engaged here, which will only play into his hands, and if the Pontiff can land him in that 3 deep train with some cover from gate 9, I just can’t see them being able to hold him out and you’re getting each way odds to find out. Great bet, super keen.
 
3 Units WIN
First Law gets the shades on for the first time here and can improve from a friendly draw, pretty confident Gemma’s Son won’t run out the mile and if Western Empire gets a start, from the draw he is more than likely last alongside the stable mate Magical Dream who should be going to the G1 Kingston Town with no weight, potentially isn’t the grand final.
Verdict:
Dom To Shoot at the price is my best betting proposition of the day, comfortably. Get him home Pont.
Race 7 – 4:00PM CROWN PERTH-JUNGLE MIST CLASSIC (1200m)

9. Ration Aly – 7. Special Choice – 1. Flower Of War – 8. Tycoon Storm

Ration Aly is the most progressive horse in the race I feel, and is going to be very hard to beat at a very nice each way quote. Returned to racing this year off 13 months out of the game with 3 wins on the bounce to take her record to 5:4-0-0. They truckloaded her 1st up off over a year out over this trip where she looked a beaten horse on the turn, stuck near last before exploding down the outside to win softly on the line. Stepped straight into Saturday grade from CL3 level, which is not easy to do, and won two on the bounce there. Her last start win over the 1300m before she was put out was really promising, running on from well back on the turn to win by half a length, getting over the top of key rival here Tycoon Storm (who is harder in the market) and subsequent winner Point Taken. Put in a really nice piece of trial work in the lead up to this, has a beautiful draw here where Joey can just tuck her in midfield off the fence and peel her out when the time comes. Keen on an each way basis.
 
1 Unit EACH WAY
Flower Of War has been doing her racing in much better company than this, albeit hasn’t shown a whole heap in 3 runs back this prep and to me has just lost her zip? Has had excuses somewhat in the tougher grades, did sit just in behind a hot Mervyn speed in the Prince of Wales but it was a day where it was hard to make ground, was ridden upside down from a bad gate in the Crawford, both races 1000m not her go, led them up in the Black Heart at a more suitable 1200m but just doesn’t go on a wet track. Maps to lead them up here with no pressure back on top of the ground and is much better suited here in a 1200m set weights contest. I’m just not convinced she’s going well enough, strange prep from a usually astute yard.
Tycoon Storm comes here over a month between runs after a last start win over the 1500m at this track, carried the 60kgs that day, got a beautiful run in transit and won easily, but really didn’t beat much. Prior to that won over the 1400m at Belmont in what was another easy win, but again, didn’t beat much. 1200m seems too sharp for her especially in a race of this quality, admit she is classy and does win (6 from 10) but this is too sharp for her against some quality mares that I think have a better turn of foot. Better over further.
Special Choice is the intriguing cerise and white runner. Has had the 3 starts this prep, the last 2 resulting in wins, the 1st of which being at Kal (when we were with her) when rattling late from well back to snatch it on the post when she looked like the first horse beaten on the turn, before last start raced against her usual pattern when Ramoly, after she sprung the gates, took her forward to sit outside the leader. Did mountains of work early only slotting in to that breezing position at the 900m, but was still too brave for them to just hold on, despite being ridden upside down. The form out of that race has well and truly held up too, with Point Taken subsequently winning in Saturday grade and Indigo Blue running 2 big races since at Listed and Group level, going down a nose in the Champion Fillies last Saturday. Won’t be ridden like that this time around I presume, drawing 4 with Pike back in the saddle, but funnily enough is only 1 win with Pike in the saddle from 6 starts, and that win being her Maiden down in Bunbury. Funny horse, but very talented on her day. Has shown her durability now and think she is in this. Month between runs keeps her on the fresh side and offsets the drop in trip from 1400m-1200m.
Miss Frost has run 2 eye-catching runs over 1000m thus far this prep, looking like she needs the 1200m now. Has a nice draw here for Pateman to just sit her in that 3 wide with cover line and get her out to the middle in the straight. Just always seems to find 1 or 2 better that are in-front of her when they straighten. Needs the race shape to fall in her favour which I don’t think she is going to get here with the lack of speed engaged, much better suited sprinting off a fast tempo.
Verdict:
Ration Aly each-way.
Race 8 – 4:40PM KIRIN-RAILWAY STAKES (1600m)
11. Inspirational Girl – 13. Platoon – 4. Kay Cee – 14. Too Close The Sun
The big one. Have been to a few Railway Stakes days now and a wise man once said to me “A horse can win the Railway if it can run out a strong 1800m” such is the nature of the pressure in the race, and after the barrier draw, the map for some means things could get a little wild and messy early.
Wild scenes.
Great Shot to lead, Too Close The Sun to fire across and breeze outside the old boy or tries to find a spot just in behind if he can, Dance Music fires across as you can’t win from there going back, especially off its Northam Cup run. Likely breezes, potentially 3 deep if TCTS decides to breeze and shows better speed early. Gailo Chop either comes across and tries to drop in behind those but I highly doubt he is fast enough early to be able to and likely parked deep. Kementari has a history of being slow into stride but jumped with them in the Lee Steere and would want to here to grab Great Shot’s back from the inside peg or he cannot win. Red Can Man likely gets a beautiful spot 2 or 3 off the fence in behind the front 3.
In my humble, I’ve narrowed the race down to 6 winning chances, and my thoughts on each individually as follows:
1. Kementari
The raider, with Chris Parnham opting not to take the ride on Truly Great and instead to ride this Godolphin G1 winner. The 1st up WA run in the Lee Steere was a ripper all things considered, Jade couldn’t find cover and was caught 3 deep the trip, endured a torrid run, was 4 wide around the turn but kept kicking to run a very brave 3rd behind Kay Cee and Red Can Man. Gate 1 is the worry. If he jumps with them and grabs the back of Great Shot he is going to get a lovely run, but if he is slow out of the machines, which he has had a tendency to do in the past, he finds himself 3 or 4 back the fence in an impossible position. Is a G1 winner at the mile in the Randwick Guineas but hasn’t seen the winners stall since that day way back in March 2018. The start is the key for him, but with his record, I’m against.
4. Kay Cee
One of my personal favourites. G1 Kingston Town winner who has won 4 out of her last 5 with all of those being at Group or Listed level, she is some mare. 1st up failed to handle the hot speed in the Northerly when truckloaded in betting, before getting back to her usual self in the Lee Steere, coming from worse than midfield, off the bit before the turn (as she does best), with her trademark barnstorming run to swamp them. If what the wise man told me is true, you need to be able to run a strong 1800m to win a Railway, then we know this girl is a huge chance with a G1 Kingston Town 1800m win on her resume. With the emergencies out, she comes into barrier 10 which means whoever her replacement rider is (Pateman or Brown (yuck) at this stage) will be trying to lob her in her favourite 3 wide line with cover and get her to the outside to unleash her powerful sprint down the middle. History says a mare with this weight is well and truly up against it to win, but she just fits the bill despite the weight impost so well here. Massive chance, real shame Stevie P won’t be on.
8. Red Can Man
Hasn’t won yet this prep but we’ve got to the grand final and he’s in some good form. Pulled hard in the run especially early when leading in the Asian Beau and being run over (understandably so) by Too Close The Sun and Inspirational Girl before putting in a massive performance last start in the Lee Steere. Sat box seat in the run but just wanted to pull again and wouldn’t settle so McGruddy let her go well before the turn at the 600m, pulling out 3 wide and letting down much earlier than ideal, despite this was only grabbed late in the piece by Kay Cee. The way I see the race panning out early, from gate 7 he should lob in the absolute box seat in the run. I’m not convinced he sees out a mile strong enough to beat these, but if he settles in behind the speed, he’s got a nice turn of foot and the race shape sets up for him really nicely.
11. Inspirational Girl
The favourite, and rightly so. 8 wins from 10 starts for Peters Investments, with both of those placings very unlucky given 1 was a savage leaders bias day and the other she settled in a different postcode off a ridiculously slow speed to still miss a nose, in easily the fastest splits of the day. She genuinely with better luck could still be 10 from 10. Has been a benchmark bully for the majority of her career thus far, before Bob finally stepped her out in the Asian Beau at Group level, and she measured up with aplomb, getting the bob on the line with a C.Parnham special up the rails. Interestingly, she profiles very similarly with 2018 Railway Stakes winner Galaxy Star, who had only won at benchmark level before stepping up to win the Asian Beau for her 1st win at Group level, which preceeded her G1 triumph at her next start. She draws perfectly in 8, gets the services of the Wizard William Pike again who handed up a free G1 on Arcadia Queen to get back to ride her, is very well-weighted and is in the right yard who know how to win this race just as well as anyone, gee she is hard to knock.
13. Platoon
I’m giving Platoon a big chance here at a big price. Was a massive run 1st up when 2nd in the Northerly before he just wasn’t suited at WFA in the Lee Steere when getting very far out of his ground with the 59kgs. Gets in on the minimum this year as he did last year, when he ran the best performance of his career from barrier 12 to go down less than a length 3rd to Regal Power. He gets a 5kg turn around in his favour on Kay Cee, who beat him 2.8L in the Lee Steere, and history says mares can’t win with that weight penalty. He draws 11 this year when the emergencies come out, has been set for this since he just missed in last year’s edition, and with a peach from Brad Parnham, peaking 3rd up in his grand final at the mile, he is going to run a big race. Over my price, have to have something on.
14. Too Close The Sun
Again, if you can run out a strong 1800m you give yourself a chance of winning the Railway, and we definitely know that this bloke can. Surprised many when it took until the last stride for favourite Inspirational Girl to nab him in the Asian Beau and then jumped to the 1800m in the Ascot Gold Cup last weekend on the bog track and pulled their pants down. Comes in here on the 7 day back-up into a Railway after an 1800m slog in the wet, you couldn’t question his fitness. The draw isn’t ideal, especially for a roll forward type, but even so I think he’s got enough tactical early speed to lob on the outside of Great Shot and from there give himself every chance to kick away at the top of the straight and hope to hold on. I just don’t think he is star enough to hold these over the mile given more than likely he’s going to have to spend some tickets early, but he’d be the fittest horse in the race and that can work to your advantage in the railway. Lindsey is a freak trainer and it would not surprise, despite it not being for me, any on-pace track advantage would significantly increase chances.
$100 Railway Stakes Betting Strategy
$80 Wins Inspirational Girl
$20 Wins Platoon
Or the equivalent of 2 Units WIN/0.5 Units WIN
Race 9 – 5:20PM CARBINE CLUB OF W.A. STAKES (1400m)

12. Festival Miss – 9. Laverrod – 13. Serenity Bay – 10. River Dance

Festival Miss with Pike back on catches my eye here. They’ve kept her fresh for this with a month off from the 1st up run which evidently, is when she races her best. 1st up with the apprentice in the saddle from the wide gate was given absolutely none, Ramoly took her back to the fence last on a day that was dominated by those on-speed where she virtually went to the line untested, racing all the way up the straight on the back of heels, barrier trial sort of stuff. Last prep 2nd up finished within a length of Free Trade and Flower Of War when those gallopers were flying. Gets 2kgs off here, gets the Wizard back on for the apprentice who has ridden her for 4 of her 5 wins, maps to get a gun run in the box seat here potentially even on the back of the favourite and you get an each way quote to find out. Pike to blast the punters out in the last.
1 Unit EACH WAY
Laverrod is much better suited back at set weights than he was at WFA in the Lee Steere when he was really poor. There is no tactical early speed here so may even find himself at the top which would be less than ideal I think as he’s better with something to chase. Hard to beat and no knocks from me back down in the weights.
Verdict:
Festival Miss each-way for the punters favourite combination, Pike in the last.

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Staking Plan

Race 4 Chantorque 2.5 Units WIN/Acromantula 1.5 Units WIN

Race 5 Western Empire 3 Units WIN

Race 6 Dom To Shoot 3 Units WIN

Race 7 Ration Aly 1 Unit EACH WAY

Race 8 Inspirational Girl 2 Units WIN/Platoon 0.5 Units WIN

Race 9 Festival Miss 1 Unit EACH WAY

16.5 Units Staked.

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