AFL Round 21: Our Insights & Selections | The Sporting Base
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AFL Round 21: Our Insights & Selections

August 4, 2023

AFL Round 21: Our Insights & Selections

Our analyst is back for another week of AFL and has found some selections for you to follow.

WESTERN BULLDOGS $1.62 v RICHMOND $2.30 – Friday 7.50pm Marvel Stadium

Richmond needs to win to stay in finals contention while a loss for the Bulldogs would be a big blow to their finals aspirations. The Tigers have been in good form recently and were only blown away late by Melbourne at the MCG. They will also get Toby Nankervis and Jayden Short back. They invariably play well against the Dogs but they tend to struggle at Docklands having a draw and five losses from their past six matches there.

  • Bet: Tribet, Either team 15 points or less $2.65

ESSENDON $1.05 v WEST COAST EAGLES $10 – Saturday, 1.45pm Marvel Stadium

It’s almost the first rule of football punting and that’s don’t have anything to do with a bottom side that has a drought breaking win the following match as they always get smashed. Double that theory for the Eagles whose recent Melbourne form has been terrible. The Bombers get the chance to break their three-game losing streak with a big win.

  • Bet: Essendon -50.5 points at $1.90

ADELAIDE $1.37 v GOLD COAST $3.15 – Saturday, 2.10pm Adelaide Oval

Both teams are coming off great surprise wins in their local Derbies last round. Adelaide though have the advantage of their happy hunting ground where their eight wins this season have been recorded. Gold Coast though have beaten them at their past two clashes.

  • Bet: Gold Coast +19.5 points at $1.90


HAWTHORN $5 v COLLINGWOOD $1.17 – Saturday, 4.35pm MCG

The Hawks tend to mix their form and that includes during matches where they go missing and have multiple goals kicked against them. Collingwood suffered a rare loss against Carlton last week. The last two matches between these two teams have been entertaining with Hawthorn winning in 2021 by 19 points and Collingwood last year by four points. This might be closer than people expect.

  • Bet: Hawthorn +31.5 points at $1.90

GEELONG $1.58 v PORT ADELAIDE $2.40 – Saturday, 7.25pm GMHBA

Both these teams are looking wobbly having lost their past two matches. The Power were woeful against Adelaide after just being beaten by Collingwood in an epic clash. Geelong have been beaten by much in their past two matches against Brisbane and Fremantle but finished strongly on each occasion when the match was over. The Cats injury list is mounting with Blicavs and Hawkins unavailable. This should be a close game.

  • Bet: Port Adelaide the win $2.40.

GWS GIANTS $1.77 v SYDNEY $2.05  – Saturday, 7.30pm GIANTS STADIUM

The Giants have been in great form having won their past seven while the Swans have also won their past three matches. Only one point separated them in the Sydney Derby earlier this season. This should be another close one.

  • Bet: Tribet Either team 15 points or less $2.55


NORTH MELBOURNE $7.50 v MELBOURNE $1.09 – Sunday, 1.10pm Blundstone Arena, Hobart

Melbourne is hitting its straps at the right time of the season. They couldn’t have been more impressive in shrugging Richmond off last week. The Kangaroos are getting closer to another win but it won’t be in this match. Look for the Dees to make a statement with September around the corner.

  • Bet: -42.5 points Melbourne at $1.90

ST KILDA $2.75 v CARLTON $1.42 – Sunday, 3.20pm Marvel Stadium

The Blues have hit form winning their past six matches and in their last one they took down Collingwood. The Saints have won their past two matches against the Kangaroos and the Hawks so this is a vastly different proposition. The Saints look over the odds.

  • Bet: Saints to win at $2.75

FREMANTLE $2.60 v BRISBANE $1.50 – Sunday, 4.40pm Optus Stadium

The Dockers burst out of their form slump in spectacular fashion defeating the Cats at home. In contrast the Lions put in their worst performance for the season when they were thrashed by the Suns. The Dockers look value on their home deck.

  • Bet: Fremantle to win at $2.60
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