2026 NFL Playoffs – Super Bowl Preview: Our Expert Tips

Offense

The Super Bowl matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks features two very different offensive profiles, but the betting value continues to point toward New England as the underdog. The Patriots’ offense is built around Drake Maye, and while the postseason narrative has cooled slightly due to three tough matchups against elite defenses, the full-season data tells a much clearer story. Based on almost every relevant quarterback metric — efficiency, explosive play rate, touchdown production, third-down success, and overall impact on scoring drives — Maye had an MVP-caliber season and very much should have been in that conversation. It’s important not to overreact to a small playoff sample against top-tier units when the larger body of work shows consistent elite production.

Another key factor is the environment. The weather for this Super Bowl is expected to be the best conditions the Patriots have had all postseason, removing one of the few variables that can neutralize timing-based passing attacks. That favors a quarterback like Maye, who thrives on rhythm throws, intermediate timing routes, and extending plays when coverage holds. With his full complement of receivers available and a healthier offensive line than earlier in the playoffs, New England should be able to operate its full playbook.

The Patriots’ rushing attack also deserves attention. They’ve been effective at staying ahead of the chains, which keeps Maye out of predictable passing situations and limits exotic pressure looks. That balance matters against a Seattle defense that wants to create negative plays early in drives.

Seattle’s offense, meanwhile, has been good enough to win, but not consistently dominant. Sam Darnold will start, and while he’s played solid football during this run, this is a completely different level of spotlight and pressure. The Seahawks can run the ball and create chunk plays off play-action, but when forced into long-yardage or late-game passing situations, their margin for error shrinks. Against a Patriots defense that disguises coverage well and changes post-snap looks, that becomes a real risk factor.

Defense

Defensively, both teams bring quality units, but they arrive here in different forms. The Patriots’ defense has improved steadily over the second half of the season and into the playoffs, particularly in situational football. They’ve been excellent on third down, tighter in the red zone, and far more disciplined against explosive plays. Their front has generated pressure without selling out in coverage, which is crucial against an offense like Seattle’s that looks for big gains off extended plays.

New England’s linebackers and safeties have also been more aggressive downhill, helping to limit yards after contact and keep drives from snowballing. That kind of defensive profile is tailor-made for playoff football, where forcing longer drives increases the odds of mistakes, penalties, or negative plays.

Seattle’s defense is still rightly respected and remains top-five by most season-long metrics, particularly in pressure rate and early-down disruption. However, it’s also fair to say that this unit has not been quite as dominant in the second half of the season as it was earlier. They’ve given up more sustained drives, struggled at times to get off the field on third and medium, and allowed more explosive plays in key moments. That doesn’t make them weak—but it does make them more vulnerable to a balanced, patient offense like New England’s.

If the Patriots can keep the Seahawks out of obvious pass-rush situations and continue to mix run and pass effectively, they can stress this defense in ways that recent opponents haven’t consistently done.

Coaches

This is where the Patriots may quietly hold one of their biggest edges. Mike Vrabel, now in charge of New England, brings not only elite preparation and tactical discipline, but also Super Bowl experience as a player. That matters more than people like to admit. Vrabel understands the emotional swings of this game, the chaos of media week, and the importance of keeping a team grounded and focused on execution rather than spectacle.

His teams have consistently been well-prepared, physical, and situationally sound. That shows up in special teams discipline, clock management, and red-zone decision-making—areas that often decide close championship games.

Seattle’s coaching staff is young and aggressive, and they’ve done a great job getting this team here. Mike Macdonald had a very strong case to be named Coach of the Year – an award that went to Vrabel. But in a one-game, neutral-site championship, the coach who can best manage tempo, momentum swings, and late-game decisions often becomes the difference. Vrabel’s background as both a champion and a defensive-minded strategist gives New England a real edge in preparation and in-game adaptability. Vrabel has shown time and time again that when the pressure is on, he is as good as any body at in game management and finding the small edges that can be the difference.

Verdict

On paper, it’s easy to see why so many pundits and fans are picking Seattle. They’ve looked flashier at times, they’re the slight favorite, and the public narrative has leaned their way all week. But here’s the part that matters from a betting perspective: the line hasn’t moved at all. Despite overwhelming public sentiment backing the Seahawks, the spread has stayed stubbornly at Patriots +4.5.

That’s usually a sign that Vegas likes the other side.

Markets don’t stay this firm without reason. When the public piles onto one team and the number refuses to budge, it often means sharp money is holding the line in place. And when that happens, I always choose to believe that Vegas knows best.

The Patriots have the better quarterback for late-game situations, a coaching staff built for this stage, a defense peaking at the right time, and an offense that should benefit from the best conditions they’ve had all postseason. This sets up as a close game—but one where New England is very live to win outright.

Pick: Patriots +4.5 (win outright)