2026 NFL Playoffs – Divisional Round Preview: Our Expert Tips

4 months ago - Sportingbase

The regular season is done and the NFL Playoffs are upon us. The real games start now and we will have a preview of every single game from now until the Super Bowl.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games, so make sure to check

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos

This game pits the Buffalo Bills on the road in Denver, and while the Broncos have kept games tight down the stretch — grinding through clock, minimizing mistakes, and hanging around late — this feels like a spot to back the Bills to win outright. Buffalo enters with elite firepower and a roster that is trending toward full health at key spots. Josh Allen remains active and confident, especially in fourth-quarter situations; when the game tightens late, Allen’s ability to extend drives, make throws on the move, and capitalize on opponent fatigue is a major edge. I’d back him in a close game in the fourth every time – the sort of game the Broncos have played a lot of this season.

Denver has been competitive this season and won a few nail-biters, but they’ve done it primarily by controlling tempo and leaning on short yardage. Their defense has allowed sustained drives and struggled to create turnovers, which keeps powerful offenses like Buffalo’s in games early. The Broncos have injury concerns up front and in the secondary, leaving them vulnerable to deep shots from Allen and his playmakers.

From a betting perspective, road teams with top-tier quarterbacks who can win in clutch moments outperform expectations in elimination games. Given Buffalo’s depth, offensive versatility, and Allen’s track record in pressure situations, backing them outright—not just ATS—feels like the smart play.

Pick: Bills ML (win outright)

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San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

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This Wild Card matchup in Seattle presents a tricky handicap, but the 49ers +7 remains an attractive betting angle despite some notable offensive absences. San Francisco will be without George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, two pillars of their passing game, which naturally caps their ceiling. However, those absences also reshape the offensive distribution rather than shutting it down entirely. Jake Tonges is expected to take on an expanded role at tight end, while Demarcus Robinson steps into meaningful snaps at wide receiver, both capable of contributing in short-to-intermediate areas that help sustain drives and control tempo.

Seattle enters as the favorite, but there are lingering questions at quarterback. Sam Darnold is set to lead the Seahawks, and while he’s been serviceable, this is a playoff environment with real pressure. I don’t trust Darnold in the biggest moments just yet, particularly if the game tightens late and decision-making becomes critical.

San Francisco’s defensive front remains the backbone of this team and is built for postseason football, capable of limiting explosive plays and forcing longer, mistake-prone drives. From an ATS standpoint, road underdogs catching nearly a touchdown in the playoffs often outperform expectations, especially when they can shorten the game with defense and a methodical offense.

Even shorthanded, the 49ers have the structure to keep this within one score.

Pick: 49ers +7

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Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

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This matchup pits the league’s top-ranked defense in Houston against a Patriots team favored by −3, and the number still points toward New England covering at home. The Texans arrive with an elite defensive profile — top of the league in yards allowed and pressure rate — but this is not unfamiliar territory for Drake Maye. The last time Maye faced a No. 1 defense came back in Week 8 against Cleveland, when he carved up the Browns for 282 yards and three touchdowns, helping the Patriots put 32 points on the board. That performance matters when projecting how he’ll handle playoff pressure.

New England enters relatively healthy at key positions, particularly along the offensive line, giving Maye the structure he needs to stay aggressive without forcing throws. Their offensive balance has improved late in the season, allowing them to control tempo and avoid predictable passing situations. Defensively, the Patriots have also tightened in recent weeks, doing a better job limiting explosive plays and winning field position.

Houston’s defense is capable of dominating stretches, but their offense has been less consistent on the road, especially when forced into long third downs. In playoff games with narrow spreads, the quarterback who can create under pressure often decides the outcome.

With home-field advantage, offensive rhythm, and an MVP level quarterback who has already proven he can beat an elite defense, New England is positioned to edge this one and cover the number.

Pick: Patriots −3

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Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears

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In this Wild Card matchup at Soldier Field, the Chicago Bears (+4) present clear value against the Los Angeles Rams. Chicago finished the season strong and enters healthier on both sides of the ball, with key offensive contributors active and a defense that has generated pressure consistently down the stretch. Their run game and short passing attack mesh well with cold-weather conditions that could include snow and wind — the kind of elements that shorten passing windows and favor ground control.

Los Angeles will be without several starters due to late-week injuries, creating depth questions across the offensive line and secondary. That’s a concern when facing a Bears front that has shown an ability to win the line of scrimmage and get consistent tackles for loss. Matthew Stafford’s track record in cold, outdoor games is a notable angle — historically he has underperformed in slick conditions relative to dome or warm-weather settings, and playoff pressure only magnifies misreads and timing issues.

From an ATS perspective, underdogs of this size in harsh weather and familiar rival settings tend to outperform expectations when they can run the ball and control the clock. If Chicago dictates tempo early and forces long third downs, they’re well-positioned to keep this close — and win outright.

Pick: Bears +4 (ML)