This matchup pits the league’s top-ranked defense in Houston against a Patriots team favored by −3, and the number still points toward New England covering at home. The Texans arrive with an elite defensive profile — top of the league in yards allowed and pressure rate — but this is not unfamiliar territory for Drake Maye. The last time Maye faced a No. 1 defense came back in Week 8 against Cleveland, when he carved up the Browns for 282 yards and three touchdowns, helping the Patriots put 32 points on the board. That performance matters when projecting how he’ll handle playoff pressure.
New England enters relatively healthy at key positions, particularly along the offensive line, giving Maye the structure he needs to stay aggressive without forcing throws. Their offensive balance has improved late in the season, allowing them to control tempo and avoid predictable passing situations. Defensively, the Patriots have also tightened in recent weeks, doing a better job limiting explosive plays and winning field position.
Houston’s defense is capable of dominating stretches, but their offense has been less consistent on the road, especially when forced into long third downs. In playoff games with narrow spreads, the quarterback who can create under pressure often decides the outcome.
With home-field advantage, offensive rhythm, and an MVP level quarterback who has already proven he can beat an elite defense, New England is positioned to edge this one and cover the number.
Pick: Patriots −3
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