2026 NFL Playoffs – Conference Championship Preview: Our Expert Tips

We have just three games left in the season and in a little over 24 hours we will know who is heading to the Super Bowl.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games, so make sure to check

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

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This AFC Conference Championship pits a familiar foe in the New England Patriots against the Denver Broncos, and from a betting perspective, New England’s combination of experience, offensive versatility, and matchup history gives them a clear path to cover the four point spread.

New England enters this game battle-tested. Over the course of the season, the Patriots faced three top-five defenses and thrived, going 3-0 in those games while averaging over 25 points per outing and winning by over two touchdowns per game in those matchups. That’s a remarkable profile — especially for a team that is often defined by defense and ball control. It shows the Pats can flex different offensive strategies and still sustain success against elite fronts. Their offensive line, while not the largest unit in the league, has protected well in critical moments, and their skill game — both in the passing game and balanced with a physical run game — keeps defenses honest.

Denver arrives with an intriguing roster and a top-five-ranked defense on paper, but recent trends suggest that unit has dipped over the second half of the season. In their key late-season matchups, the Broncos allowed sustained drives and struggled to generate explosive turnovers, a departure from their reputation earlier in the year. Against quarterbacks who can extend plays and diagnose pressure pre-snap, Denver’s back seven has been more reactive than disruptive in recent weeks.

On the offensive side, Brett Stidham will be starting at quarterback for Denver, adding a layer of uncertainty. Stidham has some NFL experience and can make plays in rhythm, but he’s not shown consistent down-to-down performance against playoff-caliber defenses — especially in cold-weather environments or when forced into long, precision-based drives. In contrast, the Patriots’ offensive scheme is built for adaptability; it can grind clock with the run, stretch the field with intermediate routes, and attack soft zones when opponents over-commit.

Defensively, New England has tightened its red-zone tackling and improved third-down efficiency — both of which are critical in playoff games where a handful of drives decide the outcome. They’ve also shown the ability to win the turnover battle, and that often flips momentum when games are tight late.

From a gambling perspective, favorites of −4 in Conference Championship spots have historically outperformed when they can control tempo and win situational football — particularly late downs and third downs. The Patriots’ experience, continuity, and proven success against top defenses this season make them a strong candidate to negate Denver’s home-field edge and cover.

Pick: Patriots −4 (win outright)

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Patriots -4 @ -110 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 unit ($200) Patriots -4 @ 1.89 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 unit ($100) Denver under 1.5 total touchdowns @ 2.55 Bet With Unibet Here

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

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This NFC Championship showdown between division rivals is a rubber match of a trilogy — in two meetings this season, the Rams and Seahawks split results, with each game coming down to the wire. While Seattle enters as the slight favorite, there’s significant betting value on the Los Angeles Rams +2.5, and the narrative supports backing them to win outright and cover.

On the injury front, both teams are relatively healthy heading into Lumen Field. The Rams will be without veteran Rob Havenstein on the offensive line, but edge rusher Byron Young — who led the team with 12 sacks this season — is expected to play despite a knee issue, and key secondary pieces like Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Quentin Lake are active. That defensive depth keeps Los Angeles competitive in pressure situations. Meanwhile, Seattle’s latest reports have QB Sam Darnold cleared to play through an oblique injury and left tackle Charles Cross active after missing early practice, stabilising both protection and rhythm. The Seahawks also activated RB George Holani and TE Elijah Arroyo from IR, giving offensive balance after losing Zach Charbonnet to a playoff-ending knee injury earlier in the postseason.

From a matchup standpoint, the Rams have been one of the more efficient offensive units in the league this season — capable of dictating tempo when necessary and switching gears under pressure. Their pass attack and creative play design can exploit zones where Seattle’s secondary has been tested, bringing balance to both downfield and intermediate concepts. That versatility is essential in playoff football, where holding a field-position edge and capitalising in neutral situations often decides close games.

Seattle’s defense is strong, and recent history shows their home crowd energy at Lumen Field matters. But playoff pressure — especially deep into January and on the road — shifts the edge slightly toward the more adaptable attack. The Rams have played better in situational third downs and have the personnel to avoid critical mistakes late.

From a betting perspective, road underdogs in the +2 to +4 range that can generate explosive plays and withstand home-field noise cover at rates above expectations — particularly in rivalry playoff games. With both teams healthy and seasoned, Los Angeles’ ability to sustain drives and win critical downs gives them a path to not only cover but win outright.

Pick: Rams +2.5 (win outright)

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Rams +2 @ -105 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 unit ($200) Rams +2.5 @ 1.91 Bet With Unibet Here

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Expert Tips

• 2 unit ($200) Patriots -4 @ 1.89 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 unit ($100) Denver under 1.5 total touchdowns @ 2.55 Bet With Unibet Here
• 2 unit ($200) Rams +2.5 @ 1.91 Bet With Unibet Here