2025 NFL Week 9 Preview: Our Expert Tips

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 13: Jonathan Taylor #28 of the Indianapolis Colts runs with the ball during the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field on September 13, 2020 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The NFL season is heating up, and we’re here once again with our weekly betting breakdowns to help you find an edge. From injury updates to roster shake-ups and early ATS trends, we’ve got you covered with insights on the biggest matchups of the week. Let’s dive into our latest previews and see where the value lies.

I will likely be adding some more picks before the games, so make sure to check back.

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Colts head into Pittsburgh as slim favorites, and the value leans toward them covering −3.5, thanks to roster stability and key Steelers injuries. Indianapolis enters with positive injury news: cornerback Charvarius Ward and defensive end Laiatu Latu returned to full practice this week from concussion and hamstring issues, respectively. Their re-integration bolsters Indy’s secondary and pass rush—two areas Pittsburgh has historically struggled.

Conversely, the Steelers have dealt with significant defensive setbacks: linebacker Malik Harrison and safety Miles Killebrew are both on injured reserve, and multiple corners remain sidelined or limited. That creates exploitable gaps in Pittsburgh’s back end that the Colts’ balanced offense can target. The Colts’ run game has been efficient, giving them control of tempo, while their defense is better aligned for this matchup.

Betting trends favour squads like Indianapolis in this position: road favourites of fewer than 4 points cover at a stronger clip when they enter healthier than their opponent and with momentum from confident execution. With Pittsburgh’s defense missing key personnel and the Colts boosted by returning impact players, Indianapolis looks well-positioned to not just cover but pull ahead in the second half.

Pick: Colts −3.5

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Colts -3.5 @ Ev Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Colts -3.5 @ 1.93 Bet With Unibet Here

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

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The Bears head to Cincinnati as narrow favorites, and the value leans firmly toward Chicago covering −2.5, especially given the status of the Bengals. The Bears did suffer major losses—RB D’Andre Swift is ruled out with a groin injury, and RB Roschon Johnson is also out, shifting heavy rushing duties to rookie Kyle Monangai. Wide receiver depth is also tested with Luther Burden III out and DJ Moore limited—but Chicago’s passing game still holds threat when protected. Meanwhile, on the Bengals’ side, QB Joe Flacco is questionable with an AC-joint shoulder injury, and star DE Trey Hendrickson is doubtful with a hip issue, weakening Cincinnati’s front and backup plans.

From an ATS perspective, road favorites of under a field goal who face opponents missing key defensive front or quarterback depth tend to cover at a higher rate. Chicago has the better all-around supporting cast stepping into this game, and with Cincinnati’s pass rush and QB health in jeopardy, the Bears have the edge to control game tempo.

Pick: Bears −2.5

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Bears -2.5 @ -120 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Bears -2.5 @ 1.85  Bet With Unibet Here

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans

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Houston returns home coming off a dominant performance and the Texans look poised to exploit key weaknesses in Denver’s lineup. The Broncos will be without All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II, WR Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion), TE Nate Adkins (knee), and S P.J. Locke (neck)—all ruled out this week. That leaves Denver’s secondary and tight-end blocking significantly impaired.

Conversely, Houston is trending upward. WRs Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are cleared to return, bolstering the wide-out depth for QB C.J. Stroud. The Texans’ defense remains one of the league’s best in pass-rush metrics, which could disrupt Denver’s QB rhythm behind its attacked secondary.

Betting trends show home dogs in the +2 range often outperform when the favorite is missing key defensive backs and the underdog has offensive momentum. With Denver missing elite coverage and Houston healthy at key skill positions, the Texans have value to not just cover but win outright at home.

Pick: Texans +2 (win outright)

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Texans +1.5 @ Ev Bet With BetUS Here
• 1 units ($100) Texans moneyline @ +150 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Texans +2 @ 1.90 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 units ($100) Texans moneyline @ 2.05 Bet With Unibet Here

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San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants

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New York welcomes San Francisco as underdogs, and this spot carries real value for the Giants to cover +2.5—and possibly win straight-up. The 49ers are dealing with a raft of injuries: QB Brock Purdy is questionable with a lingering toe issue, while WR Ricky Pearsall, C Jake Brendel, and DEs Yetur Gross‑Matos and Bryce Huff are ruled out. The defensive front is thinned, and the offense may lack rhythm with the starter in doubt.

Meanwhile, the Giants are missing key corners—including Paulson Adebo and Cor’Dale Flott—which highlights a mismatch: the 49ers’ passing game now faces a secondary without its top two cover men. New York’s offense, led by rookie QB Jaxson Dart, has shown burst, especially when opponents are vulnerable up front. From an ATS perspective, home dogs in the +2 to +3 range often over-perform when the visiting team is injury-depleted at QB or in the trenches. The Giants’ home crowd and healthier offensive continuity give them an edge in what looks like a toss-up on paper.

Pick: Giants +2.5

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Giants +2.5 @ -110 Bet With BetUS Here
• 1 units ($100) Giants moneyline @ +125 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Giants +2.5 @ 1.95 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 units ($100) Giants moneyline @ 2.20 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

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This matchup presents value on the Saints getting +14 points against a hardened Rams squad. New Orleans has shaken things up by switching to rookie QB Tyler Shough, marking a full reset under head coach Kellen Moore. Shough steps into his first start in a tough road spot, which suggests the Saints may lean heavily on the run and conservative passing to build confidence.

The Rams, meanwhile, arrive with relative health at the top end, but some concerns remain: WR Puka Nacua (ankle) and RT Rob Havenstein (ankle) were limited in practice, raising red flags about protection and explosive offense. On defense, the Rams remain stout, but heavy favorites in this kind of matchup often fail to put blowouts away when the underdog has nothing to lose.

From an ATS perspective, large spreads (10+ points) often offer the best cover value for underdogs—especially when the favorite is managing injuries or a less dynamic opponent with a new QB. With New Orleans’ desperation and strategic changes, plus turbulence in L.A.’s depth, the Saints have the structure to stay within striking distance all game.

Pick: Saints +14

USA USER BETS

• 2 units ($200) Saints +14 @ -110 Bet With BetUS Here

AUS/ UK USER BETS

• 2 unit ($200) Saints +14 @ 1.88 Bet With Unibet Here

Enter Our $500 Cash Giveaway Here

Expert Tips

• 2 units ($200) Colts -3.5 @ 1.93 Bet With Unibet Here
• 2 units ($200) Bears -2.5 @ 1.85  Bet With Unibet Here
• 2 units ($200) Texans +2 @ 1.90 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 units ($100) Texans moneyline @ 2.05 Bet With Unibet Here
• 2 units ($200) Giants +2.5 @ 1.95 Bet With Unibet Here
• 1 units ($100) Giants moneyline @ 2.20 Bet With Unibet Here
• 2 unit ($200) Saints +14 @ 1.88 Bet With Unibet Here