The Bears arrive in Green Bay as underdogs, but the +6.5 line presents real value given recent developments. Chicago will be without standout WR Rome Odunze (foot), who leads the team in receiving yards and touchdowns — a blow to their vertical passing game. On defense, however, the Bears get a boost: linebackers T.J. Edwards and Noah Sewell are back in the lineup after missing recent games, shoring up a front seven that has thrived generating pressure. The ground game, led by D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monangai (health permitting), could control tempo and keep the Packers offense off the field.
Green Bay enters banged up: key contributors including pass-rush linemen Devonte Wyatt and Lukas Van Ness remain sidelined, and several other defenders and wide receivers are questionable. Without a dominant pass rush and with secondary depth in doubt, the Packers may struggle to limit Chicago’s time-of-possession strategy.
Historically, road dogs +6 to +7 in rivalry games — especially when the favorite is handling multiple injuries — cover at an elevated rate. With Chicago’s defensive edge and Green Bay’s gaps up front, the Bears have a realistic path to staying within the number.
Pick: Bears +6.5
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