This Wild Card matchup sees the Patriots favored by −3.5 at home, and the betting edge tilts toward New England to cover due to recent roster developments and matchup advantages. The Patriots enter the postseason healthier and more consistent than they’ve been in recent weeks. Drake Maye is trending as an MVP candidate, showcasing poise, accuracy, and leadership down the stretch, and his connection with top targets remains strong. Maye’s ability to create in tight spaces and sustain drives adds a layer of offensive balance that neutralizes pressure packages.
New England’s defense also enters relatively intact, with only a handful of role players listed as questionable, while key contributors on the frontline and in the secondary are available. That depth will be crucial against a Chargers offense that has shown flashes but remains inconsistent in critical moments.
Los Angeles travels with its own injury questions. The Chargers have listed multiple skill-position players and defensive contributors as questionable or limited late in the week, creating uncertainty around their ability to close out drives and generate timely stops. Their offensive line has been inconsistent protecting Justin Herbert, and lingering questions about pass protection could prove costly against a Patriots front that excels at situational pressure.
From an ATS perspective, home playoff favorites of less than a touchdown who can control tempo and win third-down situations cover at a higher clip, especially when the road team enters with health questions. If New England controls the clock with an effective run/pass mix and keeps the Chargers off rhythm, they should cover this number comfortably.
Pick: Patriots −3.5
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