2022 Super Bowl Preview: Our Expert Tips & Staking Plan

The big game is here and we have been crushing these playoffs so far. With just one more to go we can follow up last season’s incredible Super Bowl picks with another big one to end the season right.

Season to date

Premium picks:

• Profit/Loss: +9.08 units
• ROI: 3%
• Strike rate: 47%

Free Thursday Night Football Picks:

• Profit/Loss: -13.89 units
• ROI: -26%
• Strike rate: 30%

Los Angeles Rams vs Cincinatti Bengals

The Quarterbacks

Burrow has looked destined for greatness since he led LSU to the College Football National Championship but not many would have thought that it could happen this quickly. Sometimes in sport a player just has “it” – whatever that is. It is hard to put your finger on it but Burrow is certainly one of those rare people. Just a born winner that you can never count out. He looks so composed for such a young player. He would be forgiven for being nervous as he heads out to the biggest stage in the game, and maybe all of sport, but the occasion has never felt too big for him. 

On the other sideline is Stafford who in his first season away from Detroit has a chance to add a ring that many will think he has deserved after years of loyal service at a poorly ran franchise. He always gave his all for the Lions and many there will be rooting for their former quarterback on Sunday night. He has made some mistakes this season, but he has been excellent this offseason and despite being a little bit of an afterthought when looking at all the stars on the field on Sunday, a win here would go a long way to booking his spot in the Hall of Fame. When he is finally done he is likely to have his name on many of the game’s passing records and this could be the final thing he needs on the resume.

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The key match ups

There is so many interesting match-ups in this game and that makes it so hard to call. The Super Bowl could well come down to which head coach manages to come up with a plan to win those. 

The first one is how the Bengals find a way to slow down Donald and the rest of the Rams defensive line. Against the Titans Burrow spent more time on the ground than actually throwing the ball as he was sacked nine times. Cincinatti found a way to nullify, or at least slow down the pass rush against the Chiefs and that involved a lot of checkdowns to the running backs. I expect more of the same making the line of 3.5 receptions for the Joe Mixon very interesting to say the least. With two weeks to gameplan for it, I expect Taylor to have come up with something but it may well be worth looking at the Tom Brady playbook from over the years against this sort of defence. Getting the ball out before they can get to you is the easiest way to negate the threat.  

The big question for the Rams is how they stop Chase and weirdly, the aforementioned defensive line may be the key. He has seemingly found a way to get his hands on the ball in every game so stopping him may be impossible. Ramsey is a superb corner, but he rarely follows an opponent’s number one around the field. They could choose to do that and force the Bengals to throw to Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd, but those players both have the games to beat you. So if you can’t stop the wide receivers once they get the ball, you need to stop it getting there. Von Miller has been great since arriving in LA and along with Donald, they could be game winners here. If they can get to Burrow and perhaps force a fumble or two then they have a shot at MVP here. If a quarterback is not going to win it then a pass rusher is the sort of player that can put up the numbers needed to take the award.  

Another key match-up here is the coaches. Sean McVay had a terrible time in his first Super Bowl, but I have no doubt that he will make improvements from then and learn from that experience. The stats show that a second time coach often find big improvements and a coach of his calibre can certainly do that. Zac Taylor was one of the favourites to be fired at the season but he did a good job last season despite a less than stellar roster. Even this year the Bengals have holes, but he has coached them very well. We saw with McVay that the occasion got to him a few years ago and we should not be surprised to see some errors from Taylor. But he has coached so well through this playoffs and he can carry it through here for one final game.  

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Before last season there had never been a team that had won the Super Bowl in their own home stadium. But the Rams have the chance to make it two in a row and follow in the Buccaneers footsteps. It is hard to back against Burrow, and come Sunday it may look foolish, but for me, I just see more ways the Rams can win this game. I am yet to even talk about the threat that Kupp and Odell Beckham pose and the coaching advantage the Rams have for me just make me lean towards them. The Bengals are the young team coming through and will have their time, but this Rams team is built to win a Super Bowl.  

Expert Tips

• 2 units Rams -4 2.0 with TopSport
• 2 units under 23.5 total points 1.91 with TopSport
• 1 unit Joe Mixon over 3.5 receptions 1.70 with Ladbrokes

I will be adding more to these on Sunday so please check back in

Additional picks:

For those of you that took the Rams before the season, as advised, there is a chance tonight of a middle. You can back the Bengals +4.5 (current line) and if the Rams win by one to four points you will win both bets. It is a way of reducing the risk and potentially winning more. 

• 1 unit Odell Beckham any time touchdown 2.25 with TopSport
• 0.5 unit Von Miller Super Bowl MVP 26.0 with TopSport
• 0.5 unit Odell Beckham over 63.5 yards receiving 1.88 with Ladbrokes
• 0.5 unit Ja’Marr Chase under 5.5 receptions 2.35 with Ladbrokes
• 0.5 unit first score of the game – field goal 2.50 with Ladbrokes