Wimbledon Day 3: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 30/6

Once again, another extremely frustrating day yesterday with most games being cancelled or interrupted due to rain. We still have one bet in play from Day 1, and eight bets in play from Day 2, and it feels that we are on the edge of breaking through and cleaning up. Here are my best bets and previews for Day 3.

• Bets: 19
• Wins: 7
• *Profit/Loss = -2.65 units
• *Bets still to be played due to wet weather
• Click Here To View Results Spreadsheet

Aslan Karatsev vs Jeremy Chardy

At age 27, Aslan Karatsev is having a breakout year and earlier in 2021 became the first man to reach the semi-finals of a grand slam (Australian Open) on debut. While between the AO and Roland Garros he was impressive, winning the Dubai Championships and defeating Novak Djokovic at the Belgrade Open, he performed below par at the French Open, going down in R2 as a heavy betting favourite to the 37-year-old veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber. I think we could see something similar unfold tonight, as he comes up against the 34-year-old veteran Jeremy Chardy.

Aslan played twice on grass in preparation for his Wimbledon debut, and struggled against the World No 172 Tabilo, dropping a set despite winning before losing in straight sets to Cam Norrie. I do not think he is prepared enough nor has enough experience on the grass to be priced at 1.56. Chardy is no specialist, and he is well past his best however I think he is capable of keeping up with Aslan and potentially causing an upset. If this is on any other surface, I have Aslan winning easily, however on the grass my model gives Chardy a 55% chance of winning. Tiebreak in match is 1.50, and o3.5 sets is 1.40, so instead I will resort to the total games line. Chardy matches average a total of 38.8 total games when played on grass at Wimbledon (career to date).

Suggested bets:

• 1u Chardy @ 2.41
• 1u Karatsev / Chardy o38.5 total games @ 1.90

Jordan Thompson vs Casper Ruud

Ruud has an amazing career ahead of him and is coming off an average performance at Roland Garros where he should have made the fourth round. As a relatively new and young player he lacks experience on the grass, and as a result has only played four pro games on the surface. His performance at Mallorca in preparation for Wimbledon was good, making it to the QF and losing to the eventual champion Medvedev, however it is important to examine his opponents in the lead up to that. He beat Simon and Sandgren, neither of whom would challenge him on any surface. Tonight, he faces Australian Jordan Thompson who is a player capable of good tennis on grass.

These two played back at the French Open in 2018 where Ruud was priced as a 1.33 favourite. That game went to five sets and Thompson was very close to causing a major upset. I think tonight, on a surface he plays better on, has played more on, and where his game style has a huge advantage, Thompson should be closer to even money.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Thompson @ 2.50
• 0.25u Thompson 3-2 @ 7.75

Kei Nishikori vs Alexei Popyrin

Not much to say at all here. Kei has a habit or turning straight set wins into gruelling marathons. I think he wins this game, but against a capable opponent who has a big serve, the total games line is very low. Popyrin also was able to take a set off World No 2 Medvedev in the last edition of Wimbledon in 2019 in R2, and Nishikori dropped a set to Kukushin in R4 where he was priced as a 1.12 favourite.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Nishikori / Popyrin o36.5 total games @ 1.81
• 0.5u Nishikori 3-2 @ 6.00

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Andreas Seppi vs Denis Kudla

We were on Denis Kudla on Day 1, and he did not disappoint, coming back from two sets down to beat the seeded ADF. From Day 1 preview: ‘Kudla is no grass expert, but it is his preferred surface, boasting a positive win rate (51.8%). He made it to the fourth round here back in 2015 and has the necessary experience and form to win this matchup, having won 9 out of his 11 matches on grass in 2021.’. That number is now 10 out of 12 and I expect that to increase again tonight.

Seppi also has a decent record on grass, but has been relatively inconsistent as of late, dropping matches he should have won, to Max Purcell (World No 273) and Zhizhen Zhang (World No 172). Yes, he had a good win in R1, but he did drop the first set and only got away late in the second set. I think the level of opposition for him tonight goes up against the grass court specialist in Kudla.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Kudla @ 1.66

Daniel Evans vs Dusan Lajovic

What a matchup Dan Evans gets in R2. I do not know how Lajovic beat Simon, and still think Simon was the side. Evans was great in R1, knocking off the tricky veteran Lopez in straight sets. I think we can expect a similar result tonight, as Lajovic is half the player he usually is on the grass. Evans, in front of a home crowd should cruise to a stressless win here. Evans leads the H2H 2-0. Lajovic will also be much more tired, having played last night in a match that went the distance (Evans has not played since Day 1).

Suggested bets:

• 1u Evans -2.5 sets @ 1.87
• 1u Evans / Lajovic u35.5 total games @ 1.83

Read More: Wimbledon Day 2: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 29/6

Extras

These are not official plays, but a few more bets I was close to playing:

• Pella o10.5 total games @ 1.93
• Tiafoe @ 1.90
• Rublev -2.5 sets @ 2.00
• Kecmanovic / RBA o34.5 total games @ 1.79
• Murray -1.5 sets @ 1.72

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