Wimbledon Day 2: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 29/6

A frustrating but interesting day yesterday saw us move to pretty much even (0.14u up) with over half the bets still in play or yet to be played due to rain delays. Here are my selections and picks for Day 2.

• Bets: 9
• Wins: 4
• Profit/Loss = +0.14 units
• Click Here To View Results Spreadsheet

Tallon Griekspoor vs Alexander Zverev

Zverev is known to sometimes start half asleep at grand slams, shown at Roland Garros when he found himself two sets down to qualifier and World No 152, Oscar Otte. Yes, he won that game, but it took him some time to find his feet and he looked vulnerable early. He went out at Wimbledon in 2019 in R1 to Jiri Vesely in a game where he was priced shortly at 1.22, and while Vesely is a much better player than Zverev’s opponent today, I think that Tallon can keep up with him at least for a set after putting together a solid performance in qualifying. Even if Tallon cannot win a set, if he can take Zverev to a tiebreak or even a 7-5 set, the total games set at 30.5 should tick over. I would not be shocked to see another upset here, like we saw last night.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Griekspoor / Zverev o30.5 total games @ 1.83
• 0.25u Griekspoor o0.5 sets @ 2.75

Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti

Two guys here who are having pretty good seasons and will be looking for breakthroughs on the grass at Wimbledon. Musetti has literally never played a pro game on grass, and it will be intriguing to see if his game will translate to the surface. That being said, Hurkacz is no expert either, with only 10 games under his belt with a 40% win rate. He actually does have some good experience here though as he made it to the third round back in 2019, beating Dusan Lajovic and Lenardo Mayer, before falling to the eventual champion Novak Djokovic. All three of those games went over 37.5 total games.

These two are both big servers, and I would not be at all surprised to see a set or two go to a tiebreak. I find that the total games which is set at 37.5 is just a tad low and if Musetti is able to steal a set this will cover easily. I really like this play however Musetti’s lack of preparation and match play on grass prevents me from being able to make this a two-unit play because he could get wiped out and make me look like a fool.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Hurkacz v Musetti o37.5 total games @ 1.83
• 0.5u Hurkacz & o3.5 sets @ 2.50

Nick Kyrgios vs Ugo Humbert

I can’t wait for this game and probably should not be betting it, but there is just too much value with the in-form French powerhouse Ugo Humbert. I have nothing to write about Kyrgios. Yes, he is a fan favourite and yes, he is a lot of fun, but the reality is that he has not played tennis since the Australian Open back in February and rather spends his time playing video games and mucking around. Ugo is a player I had circled to watch previously to this tournament due to his incredible form in the lead in tournaments. He won ATP Halle, beating the likes of Querrey, Zverev, Korda, Auger-Aliassime and Rublev to get there.

These players are all of elite-quality especially on the grass (maybe not Korda). He is looking extremely sharp, and I expect him to make a run deep into this tournament. His forehand is lethal and the way he covers the wings is incredible. I cannot speak more highly of him. Kyrgios has been very good on the grass in recent years, but he cannot be trusted at the moment. This should be a routine win for Ugo who made it to the fourth round back in 2019 and lost to Novak Djokovic. He has improved immensely since then.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Humbert -2.5 games @ 1.72
• 0.5u Humbert & u42.5 total games @ 2.46
• 0.25u Humbert -2.5 sets @ 3.70

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima

There are plenty of question marks around Fritz after having knee surgery just over a week ago. Miraculously, he has made a recovery and is playing in the main draw here at Wimbledon. He has posted alright results here in the past, making the second round in both 2018 and 2019. Nakashima blasted his way through qualifying and looked sensational. It is his first time playing the main draw here, but he hits the ball very nicely and I think he can take advantage of an opponent who has not played on grass since 2019 and is coming off surgery. I think the total here is too low as well with Fritz known for his tiebreakers and the friendly relationship between the two opponents with both being American.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Nakashima @ 1.50
• 1u Nakashima & o36.5 total games @ 2.75

Filip Krajinovic vs Alex Bolt

Will keep this one short, Krajinovic is another one of those players who plays consistently good tennis everywhere apart from the grass. He looks like a completely different player on the surface and is yet to win a professional game on it in three attempts. I do not expect this to change today when he takes on the Australian wildcard Alex Bolt who has put in some great results over the past couple of weeks and is well suited for this first-round matchup. Bolt kills him here.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Bolt @ 1.63
• 1u Bolt -1.5 sets @ 2

Sam Querrey vs Pablo Carreno-Busta

The odds in this game make absolutely no sense to me. Sam Querrey is a different player on grass and has shown in the past the damage he can do on the surface. At the last edition of Wimbledon back in 2019, he went on an amazing run, beating Theim, Rublev, Millman and Sandgren to make the QFs against Rafael Nadal. Previously to that, he has made the SF once in 2017, and the QF again in 2016. He is yet to go out in the first round here since 2013, and just absolutely loves playing here. It is almost as if he was made to play at Wimbledon. He put together a nice four game winning streak at Mallorca before losing in the final to Medvedev, so he is well prepared as well.

PCB is the polar opposite to what I just mentioned. His efforts on grass are one to forget and he simply looks lost on the surface. He has never made it out of the first round at Wimbledon and although put together a few decent matches in the lead up tournaments, he did not beat anyone special, taking down Jiri Vesely and Jordan Thompson, two players both ranked outside the top 70. Querrey is a completely different story and I do not expect him to get near him.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Querrey @ 2.00
• 1u Querrey -2.5 sets @ 5.50
• 1u Querrey -1.5 sets @ 2.50

Extras

• These are not official plays, but a few more bets I was close to playing:
• Federer / Mannarino o33.5 total games @ 1.86
• Ymer @ 1.90
• Norrie / Pouille o35.5 total games @ 1.96
• Giron @ 1.66

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