Why picking a Wimbledon champion is too close to call

If you are trying to pick a champion at Wimbledon this year, it might just be too close to call. The top two players in the world are Jannik Sinner of Italy and Carlos Alcaraz of Spain. If you are trying to choose a champion, it could be mighty challenging indeed.

Sinner is a three-time grand slam champion. He has won the 2024 and 2025 Australian Opens, and the 2024 United States Open. Alcaraz is now a five-time grand slam champion. He won the 2022 United States Open, 2023 and 2024 Wimbledons, and 2024 and 2025 French Opens.

Head-to-head, Alcaraz has won eight of 12 meetings, including the last five matches. However, Sinner has won their only matchup on grass. That was the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2022, which Sinner won handily 6-1, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3.

In determining the winner of every grand slam match, I use a mathematical formula in deciding a champion. For the first time in two decades the winner and finalist has the same number of total points. Sinner and Alcaraz are both at 280. Sinner received 100 points each for winning the United States and Australian Open, 60 points for reaching the Wimbledon quarterfinal last year, and 20 points for reaching the second round of Halle. Alcaraz received 100 points each for winning Wimbledon last year and Queen’s this year. He also had 60 points  for reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open and 20 points for reaching the second round of the 2024 United States Open.

If I had to choose Sinner or Alcaraz at this time, I will go with Alcaraz. The reason is momentum. Alcaraz has beaten Sinner in dominant fashion in Rome and comeback fashion at the French. As well in the 500 events leading up to Wimbledon, Alcaraz won Queen’s, while Sinner lost in the second round in Halle to Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik.

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