Week 9 NFL Preview & Analysis

The New England Patriots have been the talk of the 2019 National Football League season to date. With a perfect record of eight wins and zero losses, they have outscored their opponents by a gawdy margin of 250-61.

On Sunday night the Patriots will face the Baltimore Ravens in prime time. The Ravens lead the AFC North with a record of five wins and two losses, and have all the capabilities of going head-to-head with the Patriots for the full 60 minutes.

Why the Patriots win:

The 2019 New England Patriots are not all about Tom Brady. Their defense needs to be highly praised as well. The fact that the Patriots defense is giving up only 7.6 points per game is quite simply mind-boggling. Jamie Collins leads the Patriots with 44 tackles and Devin McCourty leads the Patriots with five interceptions. The Patriots have more than enough weapons defensively to contain Ravens star quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Why the Ravens win:

Quite simply Jackson. One could argue that the Ravens have the edge over the Patriots offensively because of Jackson, while the Patriots counter with Tom Brady’s 42-year-old legs.

Betting Insights

• The Patriots have won each of their last 13 games.
• Eight of the last 10 Sunday night games have gone UNDER the total match points line.

My take:

The Patriots are 8-1 all-time against the Ravens in the regular season. This is where Bill Belichick is at his best. He does a masterful job in preparing his team against elite opponents.

Here are three other intriguing matchups from week nine.

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Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs

Last week NFL fans saw a glimpse of what the Chiefs offense was like without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The result? A 31-24 defeat to the Green Bay Packers. In week nine, the Chiefs’ fate will depend on Mahomes’ health, who will be a game-time decision with a kneecap ailment.

Why the Vikings win:

The Chiefs have Matt Moore at quarterback for the second straight week. Moore put up respectable numbers a week ago, but it will be tough for him to go back-to-back weeks of respectability at age 35 when he did not play in the NFL in 2018. The Vikings defense has given up 31 fewer points than the Packers this season.

Why the Chiefs win:

Mahomes plays effectively at 85%. Where Kansas City has the overwhelming edge over Minnesota is at tight end as Mahomes has great chemistry with Travis Kelce. That connection will be required for the Chiefs to get by the Vikings.

Betting Insights

• The Vikings have covered the line in 16 of their last 20 games against AFC opponents.
• Twenty-one of the Chiefs’ last 28 day games at Arrowhead Stadium have gone UNDER the total match points line.
• Damien Williams has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last eight appearances at Arrowhead Stadium.
• Adam Thielen has scored the first touchdown in four of the Vikings’ last five Sunday games as favourites.

My take:

For some inexplicable reason, the Chiefs have struggled at Arrowhead Stadium this season where they are only 1-3. In addition to the touchdown loss to the Packers, the Chiefs have lost to the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans at home. The Vikings are healthier offensively and have what it takes to go to 7-2.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles

It has been a crazy season for the Chicago Bears. At 3-4, they should be better, but are not. Offensively they have been inconsistent, and their defense at times have underachieved in key fourth-quarter situations.

Why the Bears win:

They are able to contain Eagles starting quarterback Carson Wentz. David Montgomery generates momentum from his 135-yard rushing game last week against the Los Angeles Chargers, and does not have a six-yard dud like he did the week before against the New Orleans Saints.

Why the Eagles win:

The Eagles have beaten the Bears before. They were victorious by a single point last year in the NFC Wildcard Game 16-15 a year ago. This time Philadelphia are the favourites and are filled with confidence following their 31-13 last week in Buffalo.

Betting Insights

• The Eagles have won each of their last four games against the Bears.
• The underdogs have covered the line in 10 of the Eagles’ last 13 games at Lincoln Financial Field.
• Tarik Cohen has scored a touchdown in six of the Bears’ last nine regular-season day games against NFC opponents.
• Alshon Jeffery has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four regular season appearances in day games against NFC opponents.
• Zach Ertz has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Eagles’ last three November games at Lincoln Financial Field.

My take:

These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL right now. At 4-4, you simply never know what you will get from the Eagles. The Bears offense has struggled all season long, but they still have given up 77 fewer points than the Eagles in 2019. I like Chicago in a low scoring upset.

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Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders

At 3-3-1, the Detroit Lions find themselves traveling to northern California, three time zones away. They are one of the most mediocre teams in the NFL and will look to continue with momentum following their 31-26 win over the New York Giants last week.

Why the Lions win:

The Lions are marginally better than the Raiders in 2019, as they have scored 26 more points and given up six fewer points than Oakland. Matt Stafford has the sixth-highest quarterback rating in the NFL at 105.3.

Why the Raiders win:

Detroit has serious issues right now at the running back position. With Kerryon Johnson on injury reserve, the Lions will be having a running back by committee for the foreseeable future. The Raiders meanwhile need to be thrilled with Josh Jacobs, who is sixth in the NFL right now with 620 yards.

Betting Insights

• The Lions have lost eight of their last nine games before a Division game.
• Each of the Raiders’ last four games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total match points line.

My take:

At 3-4, you cannot take the Raiders lightly, especially at home where they are above .500 at 2-1. The Raiders are very tough and underrated in Oakland and will find a way to get to the .500 mark on the season.