Week 16 NFL Preview, Insights and Analysis

There are only two more weeks left in the 2019-20 National Football League regular season, and a lot of questions still need to be answered. What we do know is that the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are playoff-bound in the AFC and that the New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers are playoff-bound in the NFC. Here are four games to keep an eye on this week.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

First place is on the line in the AFC East Saturday afternoon, as the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots are at 11-3 and the Bills are at 10-4. A New England win, and the Patriots clinch the AFC East. A Buffalo win, and the AFC East Division title will be determined in week 17.

Why the Bills win:

The Bills just won in Pittsburgh, so why can’t they win in Foxboro? The Bills have given up 222 points this season, the second-fewest points in the NFL.

Why the Patriots win:

The Bills defense has given up the second-fewest points in the NFL, but at 181 points, the Patriots defense has given up the least. Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will play with great confidence after being selected as the greatest player of all-time in NFL history by the Sporting Base.

Betting Insights:

• The Patriots have failed to cover the line in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• Each of the Patriots’ last five December games at Gillette Stadium have gone UNDER the total match points line.
• Julian Edelman has scored at least one touchdown in six of the Patriots’ last seven regular-season home games against AFC opponents.
• Sony Michel has scored the first touchdown in three of the Patriots’ last four games against AFC East opponents.

My take:

The Patriots have won every single AFC East title since 2009 and are not willing to give up that crown just yet. After losses to the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots beat the Cincinnati Bengals comfortably 34-13 last week. Take New England, who have a home record of 5-1.

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Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

In the third game of the Saturday tripleheader, the Los Angeles Rams will look to keep their playoff hopes alive in the NFC with a win in San Francisco. A Rams loss eliminates them from playoff contention and puts the Minnesota Vikings in.

Why the Rams win:

The Rams simply have more at stake and will play with greater desperation. San Francisco has already clinched a playoff spot in the NFC and are battling the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West Division title.

Why the 49ers win:

The 49ers only limited the Rams to seven total points in their 20-7 win on October 13. Offensively, George Kittle is developing as an elite tight end. Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, he had a season high in receptions (13) and receiving yards (134).

Betting Insights:

• The Rams have covered the line in each of their last eight road games following a loss.
• Todd Gurley II has scored the first touchdown in each of the Rams’ last two games at Levi’s Stadium.
• Cooper Kupp has scored a touchdown in each of the Rams’ last three games.
• Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in each of the 49ers’ last four games.

My Take:

I simply trust a Robert Saleh defense over a Wade Phillips defense any day. Take the 49ers.

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New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans

In the most intriguing game on Sunday, the Tennessee Titans (8-6) host the New Orleans Saints (11-3). The Titans are battling the 9-5 Houston Texans for first in the AFC South, while the Saints are trying to get the number one seed in the NFC.

Why the Saints win:

 At 11-3, the Saints have a great for and against ratio of +75. They have historically been known as a great home team, but in 2019, they have only lost one game all season on the road. Their lone defeat came on September 15, when they lost Drew Brees due to injury and were beaten 27-9 to the Los Angeles Rams.

Why the Titans win:

The Titans were red hot over the last month and winners of four straight. Then they were beaten by the Houston Texans 24-21 at home last week. For the Titans to win, Ryan Tannehill will need to show poise at the quarterback position.

Betting Insights:

• The Saints have covered the line in each of their last five road games.
• Each of the Titans’ last seven home games against NFC opponents have gone OVER the total match points line.
• Michael Thomas has scored the first touchdown in two of the Saints’ last three Sunday games as road favourites.
• Derrick Henry has scored at least one touchdown in five of the Titans’ last six games.
• A.J. Brown has scored at least one touchdown in three of the Titans’ last four games.

My take:

Everyone knows about the great Saints offense. But this is a stingy defense too which bounced back great on Monday night by only giving up seven points to the Indianapolis Colts (a late major in garbage time) after surrendering 48 points to the 49ers a week before. New Orleans has the better nucleus of talent. Pick the Saints.

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Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

In a battle for first in the NFC North, the 11-3 Green Bay Packers play the 10-4 Minnesota Vikings. The Packers can clinch a division title with a win Monday night, while the Vikings can clinch a playoff spot (note the Vikings will already be in if the Rams lose to the 49ers).

Why the Packers win:

Not many people expected Green Bay to be at 11-3 after being 5-8-1 at the same point of the season last year. Packers rookie head coach Matt LaFleur deserves high praise for the turn around. The Packers shut down the Vikings offense in week two with a 21-16 win and have the potential to do the same Monday.

Why the Vikings win:

Many people expected the Vikings to be in double digits in wins by week 16. In the last two weeks, the Purple People Eaters have been solid defensively as they have only given up a combined total of 17 points in wins over the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers.

Betting Insights:

• The Vikings have won each of their last six games at U.S. Bank Stadium.
• The Packers have failed to cover the line in nine of their last 10 night games against NFC opponents.

My take:

The Vikings are unbeaten at home this season at 6-0. In fact, they are the only team in the NFL that has not lost on home turf in 2019. If this game was in Green Bay, the Packers would be favoured. But it is in Minnesota. Take the Vikings.

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