Week 13 NFL Preview, Insights & Analysis
November 30, 2019
One of the most intriguing games of the 2019 National Football League regular season will take place Sunday in a possible Super Bowl preview. That is when the San Francisco 49ers (10-1) take on the Baltimore Ravens (9-2) from M & T Bank Stadium in Maryland. Remarkably, it is the first time in 12 years that a 10-1 team is an underdog, as the Ravens are a six-point favourite.
Why the 49ers win:
San Francisco is unbeaten so far this year on the road. Their 163 points against is the second-fewest points allowed in the NFL. Expect a big game from 49ers middle linebacker Fred Warner, who leads the team with 63 tackles and three forced fumbles.
Why the Ravens win:
The last two elite teams Baltimore has played at home, they have smacked down each opponent like mincemeat. They took care of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots with ease in a 37-20 primetime win and then throttled the Houston Texans 41-7 two weeks ago. Expect much the same on Sunday.
Betting Insights
- Six of the 49ers’ last seven road games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Mark Andrews has scored a touchdown in three of the Ravens’ last four games as home favourites.
- George Kittle has scored a touchdown in three of the 49ers’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
- Lamar Jackson has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Ravens’ last five Sunday games.
- Mark Ingram II has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Ravens’ last five games as favourites.
My take:
The Ravens are 9-2, and have fewer victories than the 49ers, Patriots and New Orleans Saints, who are all at 10 wins, but they are clearly the best team in the NFL right now. No team can stop the Ravens potent offense right now, which leads the NFL with 386 points. Take Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense with confidence.
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Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
In this AFC South Division matchup, a pair of 6-5 teams will be battling at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis and Tennessee both have a chance of winning a divisional title as they are each only one game back of the Texans.
Why the Titans win:
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing great. Tennessee is 4-2 in the last six weeks with Tannehill at the helm. In the last two weeks, the Titans have scored a combined total of 77 points against the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars to get back above the .500 mark.
Why the Colts win:
There was a concern in Indianapolis when running back Marlon Mack broke his hand. However, Jonathan Williams has stepped in admirably with 220 yards on 39 carries and a touchdown the last two weeks against the Jaguars and Texans.
Betting Insights
- The Colts have won seven of their last eight day games against AFC South opponents.
- Each of the Titans’ last five games have gone OVER the total match points line.
- Derrick Henry has scored two touchdowns in each of the Titans’ last three games.
- Jacoby Brissett has scored a touchdown in each of the Colts’ last two games.
- Ryan Tannehill has scored at least one touchdown in two of the Titans’ last three games.
My take:
Even though the Titans come into Indianapolis with momentum, this is still a solid Colts squad. Frank Reich deserves a lot of credit for making Indy competitive after the preseason distraction that Andrew Luck would not be the team quarterback anymore. Take the Colts in a close contest.
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Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
In this AFC West Division matchup, the 7-4 Kansas City Chiefs host the 6-5 Oakland Raiders. Kansas City beat Oakland earlier this year 28-10 in northern California and now gets to play the Raiders at home at Arrowhead Stadium.
Why the Raiders win:
The Raiders have won three of their last four games with their only loss in the stretch coming last week to the New York Jets. Oakland can also generate confidence by the fact that Patrick Mahomes only threw 182 yards and had 13 incompletions last week against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Why the Chiefs win:
Kansas City has scored 80 more points than Oakland and has given up 28 fewer points than the Raiders. Mahomes is simply better than Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. Mahomes’s 76.8 quarterback rating is the second-best in the NFL.
Betting Insights
- The Chiefs have won each of their last six home games against the Raiders.
- The Raiders have covered the line in each of their last six games following a road loss.
- Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in three of the Chiefs’ last four games.
- Tyrell Williams has scored a touchdown in four of the Raiders’ last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
My take:
The Raiders are a much better team at home than on the road. Despite being at 6-5, their only win away from Oakland this season was a 31-24 victory in Indianapolis.
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New England Patriots @ Houston Texans
In Sunday’s primetime matchup, the Texans (7-4) host a 10-1 Patriots squad. Despite a 42-year-old quarterback in Tom Brady at the helm, New England is one of only three teams in the AFC to reach the 300 point plateau.
Why the Patriots win:
The reason why New England is 10-1 is because of their defense. They have given up an NFL least 117 points. It has been a great season for Jamie Collins Sr., who has 58 tackles, six sacks, three forced fumbles and three interceptions.
Why the Texans win:
The Texans have three extra days to prepare for the Patriots. That is significant as the season progresses. New England’s previous loss this season was also on the road on Sunday night.
Betting Insights
- The Texans have failed to cover the line in each of their last six Sunday night games.
- Each of the Texans’ last seven home games against AFC opponents have gone UNDER the total match points line.
- DeAndre Hopkins has scored two touchdowns in three of the Texans’ last four night games.
- James White has scored a touchdown in five of the Patriots’ last six regular-season night road games.
My take:
These are the Patriots, and they seldom lose. However, Bill Belichick deserves a ton of credit for making this Patriots squad one of the best in the NFL because of their ferocious D. The loss of J.J. Watt for the season is hurting Houston’s confidence when they do not have the football. Take the Pats.
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