The Plunge’s Black Book: Horses Running At Randwick 17/10

The countries best sprinters will clash at Randwick tomorrow for the Everest! Like most people, many of these G1 winners have landed in my black book over the past 12-24 months. With weather and track conditions expected to play a huge part, I’ve picked out the main chances and what they need to go right to win. I’ve also planned a couple of staking options on the race depending on whether we get a soft or heavy track.

Service Results Since December 12 2020

• The Plunge’s Black Book: +8.8
• 95 tips: 22 wins, 32 placings

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Randwick Race 7 – The Everest

• Nature Strip: C Waller/J McDonald

Deserved favourite and comes to this 3rd up after blowing them away 1st up in the Concorde and then just failing by 0.4L behind Eduardo in the Shorts. Wet track form reads 9:6-1-0 and undefeated from two starts on the heavy so there are no dramas there. He seems to be a more relaxed horse this campaign which will allow McDonald to roll across and camp just off Eduardo. If there is a chink in his armour it could a strongly run 1200m against a top class field. His record at the distance is 10:4-1-0 which is far from disgraceful but I think 1000-1100m sees the best of him. Can he relax in the run, cart them up to likely leader Eduardo and still be strong that final 100m?

• Classique Legend: L Bridge/K McEvoy

Won this race in dominant fashion last year when he settled back in the field without cover and came right over the top of them. Was disappointing when bleeding at Hong Kong at his only ever start since. Les Bridge is electing to send him in 1st up which a few people are questioning but he has looked on point in 3 trial wins. No one can question jockey Kerrin McEvoy in his attempt for 4 Everests in 5 years. A heavy track will near flatten his chances but can still win on a soft. If he can get cover in the first 200m and they go hard up front, he is the one to look for late.

• Eduardo: J Pride/N Rawiller

A real speed machine. He was impressive winning the Shorts first up and brings a record of 9:7-0-1 on wet tracks. More so than Nature Strip, the 1200m is the query where he has won but 1100m seems to be where he is most brilliant. The likely leader and will look to break their hearts early and hold on.

• Gytrash: Richards & Moyle/J Collett

This could be the horse everyone is underestimating. Comes to this 2nd up after having no luck in the Shorts where he was crawling all over the heels of Eduardo and Nature Strip the final 100m when those horses looked to be tiring. Had he got the split there’s no doubt he beats those two. The extra 100m looks to be an advantage and he loves the wet having not missed a place in 10 starts 10: 5-1-4. If we have a heavy track come 4pm, with genuine speed up front, this is the guy I want to be on.

• Home Affairs: C Waller/G Boss

The 3yo of the field brings real wild card factor with only 53kg on his back. Long time subscribers of this service will know that he was in my black book off a barrier trial before his first start as a 2yo so he is one I will always have soft spot for. Earned his slot after making a statement leading all the way to win by 1.5L in the Heritage Stakes. Paulele  has since franked that form and Waller and Boss combined to win this race with Yes Yes Yes as a 3yo. He could be the mappers pick where he should settle in behind Nature Strip off a hot tempo with no weight on his back. Wet track is a query. He won the Silver Slipper as a 2yo on a soft 7 before failing in the Golden Slipper next start on the same surface. The fact he was so brilliant on a good 3 makes me hesitant to back him on a heavy.

The race could go a number of ways mostly depending on whether we are on a soft or heavy. I want to give punters the best look depending on either of those conditions.

Soft 6-7:

Tip: 2 Units Win Classique Legend @$5 With TopSport

        1 Unit Win Home Affairs @$12 With TopSport

Heavy 8-10:

Tip: 2 Units Win Gytrash @$7.5

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Randwick Race 8 – Think It Over

Happy to go again with this consistent galloper, like other runners, providing the track stays in the soft range. He’s been as honest as the day is long this preparation. He finished within half a length of Mo’unga 1st up in the in the G1 Winx before winning the Chelmsford. He then finished 3rd behind Verry Elleegant and Riodini of a soft track before his last start win over this track and distance.

I would prefer him on a good surface but all his runs on soft have been good enough to win this. NOTE: If we get a heavy surface I will be steering clear.

Tip: 2 Units win Think It Over @$2.35  withTopSport

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