The Everest: Every Runner Breakdown, Tips, and Predicted Finishing Order

IMAGE: Bradley Photos

The Everest is the greatest sprint race in the world, and the 2025 edition has thrown up a field to back that status up. We have broken down why each runner can and can’t win, as well as their predicted finishing position below.

1. Ka Ying Rising — 58.5kg — Handy/box-seat

Why he can win

World’s top-rated sprinter; 13 straight at 1200 and showed he can absorb pressure then lengthen (elite FSTR) in HK G1s. First-up win off a fast tempo says the engine travels anywhere. Purton from gate 7 can stalk the speed/train tracks, minimising MAP risk.

Why he can’t

New environment + unknown firmness tolerance and only an average local trial. If the track is genuinely firm and they go chaotic early, his last 200m (MMOVE) could flatten a touch.

Predicted finish: Win chance

2. Briasa — 58.5kg — Midfield/one-off

Why he can win

Red-hot SETUP: huge Shorts run then Premiere win off brutal fractions (A-grade SECT + late splits). Proven WFA G1 horse with a lethal 400→200m surge (MMOVE). Draw lets him blend and launch.

Why he can’t

If leaders crawl midrace and it turns into a dash, he can be forced very wide to build. Slight second-up spike already spent?

Predicted finish: Win chance

3. Overpass — 58.5kg — Leader

Why he can win

Genuine WFA yardstick with an elite fresh record. Trials sharp; maps to control or sit outside the lead and kick — low MAP risk. If rail OK, he gets his race.

Why he can’t

Depth looks deeper than his preferred scenarios; if pressured by multiple, his L200 (FSTR) can soften late.

Predicted finish: First 8

4. Jimmysstar — 58.5kg — Back/midfield

Why he can win

G1 All Aged winner with a strong 1200–1400 profile; Premiere runner-up booming through the line = big FSTR. Loves high pressure and can round them.

Why he can’t

Wide draw likely forces him further back than ideal; needs uncompromising SECT to drag him in.

Predicted finish: First 8

5. War Machine — 58.5kg — Handy/midfield

Why he can win

Explosive current form (Stradbroke + Gilgai). Last start posted race-best closes with 60kg — massive MMOVE/FSTR signal. Versatile map; gate 4 perfect to hold a lane and produce.

Why he can’t

Hasn’t faced this many absolute A-graders at 1200 in one hit; any fence-in-run traffic blunts his wind-up.

Predicted finish: Top 4

6. Mazu — 58.5kg — Leader/handy

Why he can win

Rock-hard fit, tough on speed, handles genuine tempo. If rain arrives, wet spike lifts him lengths.

Why he can’t

On firm ground his last 100m has been a rung off the top this prep; others finish stronger.

Predicted finish: Rest (upgrades sharply if wet)

7. Jedibeel — 58.5kg — Backmarker

Why he can win

Honest type with a decent closing profile when the speed is hot; peaking third-up.

Why he can’t

Ratings/acceleration a couple of lengths shy of the elite; back-half map makes it tough.

Predicted finish: Rest

8. Angel Capital — 58.5kg — Midfield (rails)

Why he can win

X-factor. Chautauqua demolition then luckless Rupert Clarke — both point to a horse with a serious sustained run (FSTR). Gate 3 = every chance.

Why he can’t

Takes a big step in class and needs a clear lane at the right time; small queries clockwise at top grade.

Predicted finish: First 8

9. Joliestar — 56.5kg — Mid/back

Why she can win

Three-time G1 winner, flew in The Shorts three-wide/no cover and still won — elite SECT/FSTR. McDonald + soft gate = prime stalking run and slingshot.

Why she can’t

If tempo steadies midrace, her wind-up can be forced widest and she gives the leaders too big a start.

Predicted finish: Top 4

10. Lady Shenandoah — 56.5kg — Midfield

Why she can win

Monstrous late splits when luckless in the Concorde; forgive MV. Back to Randwick (3/4) and drawn to blend — high MMOVE when clear.

Why she can’t

Needs a clean lane; if jammed inside at the 300m she loses her edge.

Predicted finish: First 8

11. Magic Time — 56.5kg — Mid/back (wide)

Why she can win

Classy mare with a potent 1200/1400 record; Cockram win then Manikato third says she’s humming. Can round up if they overdo it.

Why she can’t

Awkward draw + traffic risk against deeper speed; might be chasing too far out.

Predicted finish: Next best

12. Tempted — 51kg — Box-seat/mid

Why she can win

Gun 3yo with a dazzling 1200m kick and huge weight pull. Run To The Rose was a statement; back to 1200 ideal and barrier 1 = no work, no MAP tax.

Why she can’t

Meets battle-hardened WFA stars; needs splits to open from the inside to use her MMOVE.

Predicted finish: First 8 (live blowout)

Predicted finishing order

1. Ka Ying Rising

2. Briasa

3. War Machine

4. Joliestar

5. Overpass

6. Jimmysstar

7. Lady Shenandoah

8. Tempted
   Next best: Magic Time, Angel Capital, Mazu, Jedibeel
   Emergencies if they get a run: Generosity (sneaky trifecta), Rothfire, Iowna Merc, Golden Mile

Best Bet: Ka Ying Rising
Value: War Machine / Tempted (each-way, exotics)