Wimbledon Day 4: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 1/6

An awesome night last night with a 42% ROI as we hit some great winners at long odds and got back into profits for the tournament. Hoping to keep the ball rolling tonight. Here are my best bets from Day 4 at Wimbledon.

• Bets: 37
• Wins:16
• Profit/Loss = +4.72 units
• Click Here To View Results Spreadsheet

Cristian Garin vs Marc Polmans

I just must take a shot on the young Australian here. Garin is only really known for his tennis on clay courts and even on that surface he was unable to produce good results. He found himself down two sets to one in R1 before play was rained out and I think that was a bit of a bail out for him that gave him an opportunity to regroup and mentally reset. He won’t get a second chance against Marc Polmans, who was able to challenge him and take a set off him at the French Open back in 2020. In that game, Garin was priced at 1.16, and while he still won, the total games hit 41. On a surface where he is heavily advantaged, I think Polmans is a fair chance to steal the match today from Garin and at the least, take a set. Polmans to win a set is priced at 1.44 so I will be playing the overs instead.

Suggested bets:

• 1.5u Garin / Polmans o36.5 total games @ 1.81
• 0.5u Polmans @ 3.20

Jordan Thompson vs Casper Ruud

Ruud has an amazing career ahead of him and is coming off an average performance at Roland Garros where he should have made the fourth round. As a relatively new and young player he lacks experience on the grass, and as a result has only played four pro games on the surface. His performance at Mallorca in preparation for Wimbledon was good, making it to the QF and losing to the eventual champion Medvedev, however, it is important to examine his opponents in the lead up to that. He beat Simon and Sandgren, neither of whom would challenge him on any surface. Tonight, he faces Australian Jordan Thompson who is a player capable of good tennis on grass.

These two played back at the French Open in 2018 where Ruud was priced as a 1.33 favourite. That game went to five sets and Thompson was very close to causing a major upset. I think tonight, on a surface he plays better on, has played more on, and where his game style has a huge advantage, Thompson should be closer to even money.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Thompson @ 2.50
• 0.25u Thompson 3-2 @ 7.75

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James Duckworth vs Sam Querrey

Must go back to the well here with Querrey. As I said in my Day 2 preview, it is almost as if he was made to play at Wimbledon. He looks superb out there on the grass and was able to dismantle the World No 13 in straight sets. Duckworth has not been anything special on the grass, with a 25% win rate and only three professional wins under his belt. These two met three weeks ago in Stuttgart on the grass and Querrey won in straight sets. Duckworth only had a single break point the entire game. I think Querrey’s dominance continues tonight, and I expect him to stroll through this match and into R3.

Suggested bets:

• 1u Querrey -2.5 sets @ 2.62
• 1u Querrey -1.5 sets @ 1.66

Kei Nishikori vs Jordan Thompson

Two guys that love five set matches. I am happy to go back to the well here with the overs. If Nishikori wins in straight sets, then fair play, but he looked vulnerable last night, and I do not understand why the line is the same here (lower some places) against a more capable, experienced opponent in Jordan Thompson. Once again, Nishikori probably still wins, but I cannot see it occurring in straight sets. Plenty of exposure here.

Suggested bets:

• 2u Nishikori / Thompson o35.5 total games @ 1.79
• 1u Nishikori / Thompson o3.5 sets @ 1.72
• 0.5u Nishikori / Thompson o4.5 sets @ 4.20
• 0.25u Nishikori 3-2 @ 6.50

Alex Bolt vs Cameron Norrie

Alex Bolt has put in some great results over the past couple of weeks and that showed when he took out the World No 44 Krajinovic in straight sets in his Wimbledon main draw debut. He now has an eight-match winning streak on grass and is building and looking stronger with every win he gets under his belt. I am expecting Norrie to continue his run of good form at his home tournament on a surface that suits him to an average extent, but he seems too short tonight, after admitting that he was not comfortable after his win yesterday. Bolt probably won’t be able to win, but I am hoping that he is able to test the Brit, much like tricky Frenchman Lucas Pouille did a few days ago. Bolt won their only past matchup in 2015 (on the grass).

Suggested bets:

• 1u Bolt / Norrie o36.5 total games @ 1.80
• 0.25u Bolt @ 3.40

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Taylor Fritz vs Steve Johnson

Backing Taylor Fritz on a back-to-back, two weeks after knee surgery? No thank you. Johnson is the side here and I see some value in his price. He leads the H2H 3-0 and has a winning record on the grass with 31 wins and 25 losses. It is his favourite surface, and he will be looking to take advantage of the fact that he is playing a fellow American. He has more experience on these courts and looked superb in his R1 win in straight sets against Denis Novak. He has had more time to prepare and is better rested. He should be the favourite in this matchup.

Suggested bets:

• 1.25u Johnson @ 2.35

Read More: Wimbledon Day 2: Our Expert Selections & Staking Plan 29/6

Extras

These are not official plays, but a few more bets I was close to playing:

• Pedro Martinez @ 2.95
• Chardy @ 2.10
• Cilic -2.5 sets @ 2.20
• FAA -2.5 sets @ 1.75
• Federer / Gasquet o35.5 total games @ 1.90

Record on extra bets (untracked):

• Bets: 13
• Wins: 10

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