State of Origin: Tedesco, Ponga headline captivating back three battle

New South Wales and Queensland will trot out vastly different looking back threes in tonight’s series opener in Sydney, with both trios set to have a big say in the outcome of the game. NSW’s back three contributed a tonne in their 2021 series victory, whilst Queensland will be hoping that their new-look fullback-wing combination will prove mainstays long-term. With that said, how do the back threes match-up for the series opener?

New South Wales

Blues skipper James Tedesco will wear the number-one jumper for his 17th straight Origin, with the Roosters fullback having proven himself as one of the greatest Origin performers of the past decade. The Camden junior is set to become the equal-second most-capped fullback in NSW history in Game I, tying Balmain legend Garry Jack. Meanwhile, Penrith’s right-winger Brian To’o will line-up for the Blues on one flank with Sydney’s left-winger Daniel Tupou posted on the other.

Queensland

Newcastle maestro Kalyn Ponga has been named at fullback for the Maroons, with Brisbane debutant Selwyn Cobbo and Melbourne flyer Xavier Coates as his flankers. The Maroons’ back three possess a heap of spark and athleticism and will no doubt find footage of themselves in the highlight reels if Queensland can find them the ball at opportune times and grind their way to a win.

Experience

The Blues’ back three has a clear edge in age and experience, which has often proven pivotal at Origin level. Tedesco, To’o, and Tupou have a combined 462 NRL appearances to their name and 26 Origin appearances, whilst Ponga, Cobbo, and Coates have a combined 155 NRL reps to their name and nine Origin caps. Tedesco and Tupou have each played over 155 NRL games on their own, whilst Tedesco’s 16 Origin appearances is more than the Queensland back three combined. Similarly, the average age of NSW’s back three clocks in at 28.1 compared to Queensland’s 21.8. This is a very inexperienced and raw Queensland back three who will undoubtedly be tested by the kicking game of Nathan Cleary and the early line speed of the Blues’ forward pack. Each of NSW’s back three has found themselves a part of winning series and should have no issue adjusting to the speed of Origin.

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Ball-running

The ball-running numbers do not make for pretty reading for Queensland’s back three in comparison to their NSW counterparts. NSW’s back three at clubland this season are combining for almost 52 runs per game for over 500 run metres. Queensland’s, meanwhile, are combining for just 33 runs per game for 327 run metres. This season, 65% of Tedesco, To’o, and Tupou’s runs have exceeded the eight-metre mark, compared to Ponga, Cobbo, and Coates’ 53%. The Queenslanders have, however, made more total line breaks and average more metres per run than the Blues, which should serve them well if their inside men are able to create opportunities for them to show off their speed. The Blues, however, are also more adept at breaking tackles and are more effective kick returners; NSW’s back three break a combined average of 13.6 tackles per game each, compared to Queensland’s 10.1, whilst the Blues’ average 11.55 metres per kick return compared to Queensland’s 10.47. All in all, the Blues’ back three have a distinct advantage in most areas of ball-running but the speed of the Maroons’ wingers presents an obvious channel for points. To’o and Tedesco were phenomenal for the Blues last series, with the pair combining for an average of 407 metres per game. NSW’s back three are more impactful and willing workers out of yardage and offers the side a clear point of difference in comparison to their Queensland counterparts.

Skill

After seeing the role that NSW’s outside backs played in their attacking-centred 2021 series victory, the skill of this series’ back three will be particularly important. Whilst Queensland’s back three may struggle to keep up with NSW in yardage, their skill and attacking potency may trouble the Blues if they are given any opportunities to show it off. Queensland’s back three have totalled more tries – 24 to 17 – and try assists – 10 to 7 – than NSW’s in 2022, whilst line break assists are tied at eight apiece. The Queenslanders have also proven to be more willing and adept passers, with 25.2% of their touches resulting in passes this season, compared to NSW’s 20.1%. The Blues’ back three, however, average more touches per contest and are the more frequent offloaders. The NSW selectors have seemingly stocked up on yardage men in their back three and likely anticipate more football being played in the middle-third of the field compared to the edges. For Queensland, the athleticism of Cobbo and Coates, who are two of only eight players in the NRL with double-digit tries this season, should help them convert half-chances into full-chances down the touchlines and, with the likes of Ponga, Cameron Munster, and Harry Grant calling the shots, points should not be as hard to come by this series.

Defence & Security

All four edges will be tested defensively this series and the results will play a significant role in determining the outcome of games. This is where Queensland’s lack of experience may come back to bite them, especially if the veterans closer to ruck are unable to communicate and solve problems effectively. The Blues’ back three have proven more trustworthy and capable defensive this season, combining for just 15 try causes compared to the Maroons’ 26, whilst the Queenslanders have also more than doubled their counterparts in line break causes 27 to 13. Whilst NSW’s edge attack may not be as potent as it was 12 months ago, they should still have more than enough firepower to take advantage of Queensland’s edge defenders should communication breakdown at any stage. There will be a tonne of pressure on Queensland’s centres, halves, and edge forwards to work as a unit and stunt any NSW shifts but if their middle surrenders any momentum, they may struggle. The Queensland back three has also proven to be more error-prone, having made 39 errors this season to NSW’s 28 or once every 19.3 touches compared to NSW’s once every 26.5 touches. If Cleary’s kicking game is on point and his chasers are not letting him down, Ponga, Cobbo, and Coates may find themselves under some undesirable bombs.

All up, NSW’s back three edges Queensland’s in terms of experience, yardage, defence and security, whilst the Maroons’ back three have had more joy this season creating incisions and points. The Blues’ back three seems more trustworthy heading into Game I but, if Queensland are able to match the Blues in the middle, there may be a higher point-scoring ceiling among Ponga, Cobbo, and Coates. Either way, there will be plenty for viewers to keep an eye on; the play of the opposing back threes may make or break either state.

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