Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 9/8

Another big day today with winner at 3.4, 3 & 6.5 thanks to Derrick & TBJ. Tough beat on Gay who played his fewest bubble mins, took his fewest shots (by 6) and only fell 1 point short. Embiid looked terrible in the first half before getting going in the 3^rd but it wasn’t enough and the big bet went astray there. Shai was pretty poor in what was a good matchup for him.

Season Results:

• 288 Wins / 182 Losses
• +96.28 Units Of Profit
• 19.98% ROI

Blazers vs Clippers 3:00am AEST

Have been watching him closely – very painfully – his last 2 games as have been heavily invested, and I just can’t believe how many easy looks around the rim he’s been missing. He is better than this, and it has to turn at some point doesn’t it? I wrote last time he could have had 25 against Rockets, he could have had 30 against Denver! Even with all these misses, he is still averaging 22 points through the 4 games. Dame  exploded last game, but Nurk still had a higher usage rate at 30.9% and leads the team in the bubble at 27.6% (Dame 26.8%). Probably not going to be good for my mental state watching him miss bunnies at 3am but I can’t pass this up and am playing some alts again on the chance he can finish a bit better because the opportunities will be there. Hasn’t been rebounding that well – aside from Rockets – with just 9,9,7 in the other 3 and Clippers have been one of the better rebounding teams in the bubble with the 4^th ranked rebounding % at 52.4. He might even get some extra minutes here if he stays out of foul trouble with Hassan being doubtful.

• Nurkic over 19.5 Points @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units (Can get 18.5 everywhere else for 1.90ish which I’d take if these odds get any lower than 2.10)
• Nurkic over 24.5 Points @ 5.25 with Ladbrokes – 0.2 units
• Nurkic over 29.5 Points @ 16.00 with Ladbrokes – 0.1 units

Have always liked Zubac as a player, but mainly due to his defence so seeing the last couple of games has been nice as he’s been great on both ends. He has been really active on the offensive side and getting into the right spots making it easy for Kawhi, PG and others to hit him. Has great hands so has been able to get hold of some iffy passes too. The Clippers team love him, and are getting a lot of enjoyment out of seeing him playing well so I think they’ll continue to go to him where they can. Minutes have been consistent the last 3 games at exactly 24 and it’s been his last 2 where he’s really come on, averaging 19.5. Slight chance he even gets a bump in minutes to contend with Nurkic.

• Zubac over 9.5 Points @ 1.96 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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Jazz vs Nuggets 5:30am AEST

We’ve been on him a couple of times and he’s delivered. No reason to jump off now and I’m not sure why we are getting such a reasonable line for him in what’s a perfect matchup against a Denver team who have allowed the most FP to PGs in the bubble so far. Dame went off with 45/12, Derrick had 23/7 & CP had 23/8. Was actually expecting around 18.5 here which I would have taken so more than happy to take this. If you take out the OKC game where everyone was terrible so am happy to forgive, he’s averaging 22.3/5 and has cleared this line in all of them comfortably. Gotten even better since that OKC game and is averaging 23.5/7.5 over his last 2.

• Conley over 16.5 points @ 1.86 with TopSport – 1.3 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport

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Suns vs Heat 9:30am AEST

This is shaping up to be the bet of the restart! It’s only a small 31 minute sample but Bam has 17/14/12 in that time with Herro and without Jimmy/Dragic/Nunn. What jumps out at me is the assist numbers, and it was obvious against the Bucks he will be initiating a lot of the teams offence. Hard to believe but he had a ridiculous 16 potential assists in just 22 minutes in that game which is around 26 per 36. Should absolutely crush this line if he plays 30+ minutes. Nice odds for the triple double too. Only concern is that he mentioned he was still recovering from COVID, but that could be a sign he needs the game time and extra conditioning.

• Bam over 5.5 assists @ 1.77 with Topsport – 1.75 units
• Bam over 7.5 assists @  3.30 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Bam over 11.5 assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Bam Triple-Double @ 15.00 with Beteasy – 0.2 units (It’s around 8.00 on other sites so don’t expect this price to stick around long, happy to take that.)

With Portland losing today, Suns can see that playoff spot so expect them to keep doing what they are doing as they are the only undefeated team left at Disney. Cam got in foul trouble in their opener, but since then has played 40, 37, 36 minutes and has been a big part of their offence, creating space for Book to work. He’s averaged 13/10.3/3 in that span but has shot just 7-22 from 3 so there is some clear upside there if he gets rolling.

• Johnson over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.25 units
• Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Bucks vs Mavericks 10:30am AEST

Can’t remember the last time I’ve had a bet on him, but this one sets up beautifully. Mavs have the 4th worst defence at Disney at a massive 117.9. Giannis is an absolute beast and should be able to have his way here. He’s been great at Disney, with 33, 36,36 in the 3 full games he’s played. With Bledsoe back in the mix, the Bucks may be looking to rekindle some chemistry I expect him to play his full allotment of minutes providing it stays close, which Mavs should be able to do with their potent offence.

• Giannis over 29.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Nurkic over 19.5 Points @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Nurkic over 24.5 Points @ 5.25 with Ladbrokes – 0.2 units
• Nurkic over 29.5 Points @ 16.00 with Ladbrokes – 0.1 units
• Zubac over 9.5 Points @ 1.96 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Conley over 16.5 points @ 1.86 with TopSport – 1.3 units
• Bam over 5.5 assists @ 1.77 with Topsport – 1.75 units
• Bam over 7.5 assists @  3.30 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Bam over 11.5 assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Bam Triple-Double @ 15.00 with Beteasy – 0.2 units
• Johnson over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.25 units
• Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Giannis over 29.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport