Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 9/4

Jan 14, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Toronto Raptors guard Malachi Flynn (8) during a game against the Charlotte Hornets at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mary Holt-USA TODAY Sports

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 11.7 Units Loss
• -13.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Heat vs Lakers 9:40am AEST

A bunch of things line up here against Dennis. Miami’s defence has slipped a little bit but they still allow the 6th fewest points per game since the ASB as they’ve been playing at the second slowest pace. The Lakers have been a bit choppy with their pace usually playing to the opposing teams pace but with Drummond in today expect things to slow right down as he played at a 96 pace with the Cavs (would be 3rd slowest in league). Was only a 14 minute sample, but Drummond had a 30.3% usage rate and while he gets acclimated I’d expect they continue to try get him going so while we can’t expect 30% I think we’ll see him around 25% which is way above Gasol’s 12.3% usage who he is replacing in the starting line-up. Miami give up the second fewest points per game to the PNR ball handler and Dennis is a pretty heavy PNR guard with 40% of his possessions coming in that fashion. Kuzma is out today and Dennis does get a nice usage bump without him, but this game is looking even more like it will blow out now.

• Dennis Schroeder UNDER 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units

Raptors vs Bulls 9:40am AEST

8 available players is music to my ears as we can be certain that the starters are going to see huge minutes here. Flynn and Trent are the only two back-court bodies available and Trent really isn’t an on ball guy so am expecting a lot of Flynn who has been really impressive since coming back from the G-League bubble. He’s really made the most of the extended minutes over his last 3 games with 14.3/6.3/4.3 in 32.6 minutes. Those numbers look even better per 36 at 15.8/7.0/4.8 and I think he’s even a chance to see closer to 40 today as he’ll certainly be playing in a blowout if that eventuates. Over the last 2 games it’s been Pascal at 5.0 minutes of touch time and Flynn at 4.8 with Bembry’s 3.8 the next highest. No Bembry here so that has to go somewhere and without any other options will have to find it’s way to Flynn/Pascal. Flynn was super productive in the G-League bubble with a 21.8/4.7/5.8 per 36 line so he can handle higher usage and gets a good matchup today against the Bulls and their 26th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks.

• Malachi Flynn over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B355 – 1 unit

Ahh what a letdown against the Wizards when he had 18 points in the first half and took 4 second half shots but am going to have to come back to him here. He’s going to have the ball in his hands a ton as mentioned above and his splits without Bembry/FVV/Lowry are just awesome. In 52 minutes he’s put up a 34.3/7.5/4.1 per 36 line. He’s going to play the backup point today and he’s been ridiculously unlucky on that front over his last couple averaging just 2.5 assists from 11 potentials. Bembry has led the team in potentials with 12.5 so expecting more playmaking from Pascal & Flynn.

• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Thunder vs Cavs 10:10am AEST

He’s so hard to trust, especially on the b2b set but against this Cavs defence it’s hard not to have something on as his role is just spectacular. He’s had 6 straight games with a 25% usage rate and his last two games where he played 30+ minutes he’s scored 25+. He’s still driving the ball a ton at 17.2 per game over his last 6 which is seriously elite territory at 5th in the league over that span amongst the likes of Demar and Pascal. Cavs might go with Love at the 5 here so he shouldn’t have many issues finishing once he gets into the paint.

• Theo Maledon over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Theo Maledon over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Suns 12:10pm AEST

It’s not the best matchup but it’s a huge let down spot for the Suns coming off a massive OT win against the Jazz yesterday. It’s a big game for the Clippers here as they are now 3 games behind Phoenix but they can get it to 2 with a win so expecting the starters to play big minutes. It’s the front end of a b2b (Rockets tomorrow) so they can play big minutes here and take the rest day tomorrow if need be. Kawhi has been awesome of late covering this with boards alone in 2 of his last 3 averaging 11.3 boards and 6.3 dimes over that 3 game stretch.

• Kawhi Leonard over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.8 units out

• Dennis Schroeder UNDER 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Malachi Flynn over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B355 – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Theo Maledon over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Theo Maledon over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kawhi Leonard over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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