Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 8/8

Felt like I had been seeing them pretty well without the results, so very nice to bounce back and have a big day as I’ve been putting in some serious hours on these. Some great matchups tomorrow for betting purposes, but I don’t expect to be betting into the Celtics vs Raptors game. Will be up bright and early to catch the Jazz vs Spurs game so will have some plays for Magic vs Philly & Wizards vs Pelicans ready to go at 8:00am on the dot. If you’re up early keep an eye out for any late bets I’ll post on twitter.

Season Results:

• 288 Wins / 182 Losses
• +96.28 Units Of Profit
• 19.98% ROI

Spurs vs Jazz 3:00am AEST

Kicking myself for jumping off him and getting on Dejounte last game but that has no influence over this pick whatsoever. He is just good at basketball and he’s rolling. He’s seeing consistent minutes which is going to be a crucial factor over the next week so don’t be surprised to hear me mention that consistently. He is averaging 21.3/4.8/5.5 in the 4 games and has covered this line in all of them. No idea what this Jazz team will look like, but it won’t be pretty as the Jazz second unit has been getting torched. Little go on his alt PRA line’s on the chance this does stay close and he gets his full allotment of minutes. Stranger things have happened in the bubble.

• White over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit
• White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.40 with TAB – 0.2 units
• White over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

I am shit scared of a blowout here so taking someone like Gay is perfect as he starts on the court in the 4^th quarter which means he should play out 20-22 of his 26.4 minutes even if he doesn’t come back for a final stint to close the game. He leads the team in usage at 27.6% (Derrick second at 23.95) and has been hot with 24 in his last 2 games and is averaging 19.8 through the 4 games. He’s been able to get to his spots, taking 15+ in all 4 games and has gotten to the line 4+ in each of his last 3.

• Gay over 14.5 Points @ 1.79 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport

This is a little bit of a hedge but with the other 2 lines being quite low can cash all 3. I just have no idea how Jazz come close here. Spurs have been a bit of a surprise but they are playing really well and getting contributions from everywhere which is a great formula. Small sample of 4 games but here’s the net rating’s for 4 of their projected starters: Clarkson -51.8, Bradley -40.7, Mudiay -26, Niang -19.9. Ingles is +17.3. We do sometimes see well coached teams of young energetic guys pull off an upset, but the Spurs are still fighting for a playoff spot and we may be seeing the Jazz try slip down into the 6^th seed so they avoid a first round matchup with Houston. Well done if you took them as dogs when the news first came out.

• Spurs -6.5 @ 1.91 Sportsbet – 1 unit

*Since writing this the Spurs line has moved to -8.5 so still take that, or if you can’t get on the White bet with TAB, White 15+ / Spurs win @ 1.91 with Sportsbet looks great. You knock a couple of points off White’s point line which could come in handy if the game blows out.

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Thunder vs Grizzlies 6:00am AEST

Looks like he is the major beneficiary of JJJ missing time. He turned in a good game against Utah with 21/14 in his 33 minutes with a 27.7% usage, up from 24.0% overall at Disney. He’s been good in the bubble averaging bang on 1.0 PR per minute, which is around his season average so it’s definitely sustainable. I think the best time to attack JV when he is versing other non-shooting centres and Adams fits the bill perfectly, as does his backup, Noel. If he stays out of foul trouble, he shouldn’t have any trouble staying on the court for 32-34 minutes.

• Valancuinus over 27.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.25 units

This line has come back down to where it was opening the bubble when he had a question mark over his minutes and JJJ was around. He wasn’t very aggressive last game with his usage down at 23.3% (still covered this line with 20/9) but I fully expect that to come back up here as he’s been at a 27.5% usage in 837 minutes without JJJ on the season. Dillon Brooks had a 32% usage and that is not a winning formula. Memphis simply need Ja to step up if they want to win any more games. Admittedly this isn’t a good matchup for him as OKC play slow and they have a good defence, but he played 37 minutes and is averaging a Disney-high 21 potentials per game so should have more than enough opportunity to cover this.

• Ja over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.82 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Was a nice fade in the tough matchup against the Lakers when he just couldn’t get himself going but am ready to go again at him here. Gets a really nice matchup here against a Memphis defence who has struggled against guards and he should be able to bounce back strongly. I still can’t believe we didn’t cash the dimes bet the other day, but there they were against the Lakers and it is certainly replicable as he had a nice 12 potentials there. Was in line to play over 37 minutes before getting pulled a touch early due to the blowout, which would be ample time cover this. He can score so easily I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a 30 point game at some point in the bubble and with the good matchup and no Dennis again this could be it.

• Shai over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Shai over 29.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Kings vs Nets 7:00am AEST

If you’ve followed me for a while you know I’m a big fan of Bogdan’s. He has been in a bit of a weird situation this year in and out of the starting lineup but it is clear that Hield is now out of favour with Walton and he doesn’t play them together often. Kings are in desperate need of a consistent second scorer to help take the load off Fox, and Bogdan fits the bill in theory but has been a bit too inconsistent. He was so hot today hitting his first 5 3’s and finishing with 35 points in 37 minutes. This team is obviously a lot more dangerous when he is going and he now gets another great matchup against the Nets. He isn’t shy and he’s managed to get up 13 shots in each of the 4 games (including going 1-15 against Dallas) so he should come out firing looking to build upon today’s performance and no reason to think he won’t be able to keep it rolling. Quite like Fox over 24.5 too who has been elite with 28+ in 3/4 games.

• Bogdan over 15.5 Points @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport

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76ers vs Magic 8:30am AEST

Simmons has had a horrible run of late and this really hurts for the 76ers. Only positive to take out of this is that it creates a great betting opportunity for us. Embiid is simply a monster when Simmons isn’t on the floor, with a 31/15/5 per 36 line and a ridiculous 37.5% usage (+4.4). This line is still pretty low considering he has covered it in all of his games so far in the bubble. Brown came out and said Embiid “needs to get as many touches as we can get him” so expect him to have a high 30 usage in this one. Magic’s defence hasn’t been up to their usual standard in the bubble, ranked 12th with a 112.7 rating. They are also playing quicker than usual with the 11th ranked pace. No need to overthink this one, he will have a big night even with a plethora of doubles coming his way

• Embiid over 26.5 Points @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit
• Embiid over 29.5 Points @ 2.4 with Tab – 0.5 units
• Embiid over 34.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Wizards vs Pelicans 10:00am AEST

He’s been great after Brooks called on him to be more aggressive after the opener averaging 16.3/8.3/6.6. He’s handling the ball a lot more and doing a bit of everything, rebounding well, scoring and getting dimes. Gets the gun matchup here against a Pels team who just look pathetic on the defensive end and in a fast pace matchup sets up nicely for the high energy TBJ. Brooks is happy playing him big minutes with 35 in his last and 38 against the Nets and with upside in each category is perfect to take some alts.

• Troy Brown Jr over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists  @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

There was some buzz around him coming into the season and for the most part he was pretty average but has come out all guns blazing in Orlando putting together 3 straight double doubles averaging 23/11.3 in that span. As mentioned above this Pels defence has been trash and it will open up some easy opportunities for Bryant. No Zion to contend with on either end will make his day a lot easier. His mins were down vs Indiana on the second night of b2b and played fine against Embiid recently in 30 mins with 19/10 but I’d expect his minutes to be back up in the mid 30s here (played 36 vs Nets)

• Bryant over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• White over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit
• White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.40 with TAB – 0.2 units
• White over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Gay over 14.5 Points @ 1.79 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Spurs -8.5 @ 1.90 Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Valancuinus over 27.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Ja over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.82 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Shai over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Shai over 29.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bogdan over 15.5 Points @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Embiid over 26.5 Points @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit
• Embiid over 29.5 Points @ 2.4 with Tab – 0.5 units
• Embiid over 34.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists  @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Bryant over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport