Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/8

After a few bad beats in recent days, today was just bad bets. Dejounte and AD stunk it up. Happy with the read on Tatum but in hindsight was a bit overexposed to that game. Lots to like today.

Season Results:

• 278 Wins / 178 Losses
• +92.28 Units Of Profit
• 19.87% ROI

Kings vs Pelicans 3:30am AEST

After a shaky couple of games he came through for the Pels against Memphis with a nice 23/7/5 line. He got up to 25 minutes there, so I expect that will be his floor (maybe not on 2^nd night of b2b) from here out. Has the added bonus of the extra day rest so I think there is a chance they extend him into the high 20s as if they drop this game it really puts a dent in their chances. He leads the bubble in usage rate at 36.8% with Booker in second at 34.8. They are going to let him feast in the minutes he does get. Really good matchup for him here against the Kings who have allowed the 6^th most points to PF’s in the bubble.

• Zion over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1.3 units
• Zion over 24.5 Points @ 3.60 – 0.25 units

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Pacers vs Suns 6:00am AEST

The Suns have been rolling and they are 1 of only 3 undefeated teams in the bubble. You can see the confidence they are playing with and I’m sure they still believe they are a chance at the 8 seed. Until they drop one, I expect Monty to continue letting Ayton & Booker log heavy minutes. He’s been decent in the bubble with 24/12/3 in the opener and 19/7/4 in their most recent game against the Clips (foul trouble game in between). Here are the 3 lines opposing centres have had on the Pacers so far in the bubble: Embiid 41/21/4, Bryant 20/11/1, Vooch 24/10/2 so he could be in for a bubble career night. His rebounding Is a bit inconsistent but there he can have some big games, and Indiana come into this ranked last in rebounds so far in the bubble.

• Ayton over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 – 1 unit
• Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist @ 3.5 – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport

Pacers vs Suns 6:00am AEST

He’s been good in his last couple after a shaky start vs Embiid, averaging 19 points and 2 dimes in 33.5 minutes. He’s down at 19.1% usage in the bubble which is up from 18% on the season, but lower than what I had expected as he was at 24.3% usage in 558 minutes without Sabonis throughout the season. This gets bumped further to 26.4% in 278 minutes without Brogdon & Sabonis so that is something to monitor. He is 6/8 from 3 over his last couple so have to expect some regression there at some stage. KP went off for 30 on them before Zubac had a huge 18/12 in just 24 minutes last game.

• Turner over 14.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit

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Clippers vs Maverick 8:30am AEST

Love Kawhi here. Dallas have given up the 2^nd most points to SF’s so far at Disney and the only other time they met this season he went off for 36 points. Lou is back in the mix, but that has much more of an impact on PG, who’s usage drops from 33.2 to 25.9 with Lou on the court, whereas Kawhi’s only dips from 34.3 to 33.5. Both teams have been happy to run and it was encouraging to see Kawhi get up to 37 minutes against the Suns. Yet to really see him go off at Disney, but this sets up nicely for him and it should remain close with Dallas’ offence rolling (until the 4^th quarter anyway)

• Kawhi over 26.5 Points @ 1.90 – 1.25 units

Blazers vs Nuggets 10:00am AEST

Starting writing him up yesterday and opened up with ‘I don’t like chasing guys after big nights’ then stopped there. Oops. Well, now he’s put 2 together theres no reason to think he can’t keep rolling in a perfect matchup against the Blazers. He’s looked awesome over his last 2 averaging 33.5/13.5. Murray, Harris & Barton are out here so should see similar opportunity. Not sure who will guard him but both Melo & Collins will struggle. He’ll get his shots here and has been really active on the boards and should swoop in for a few easy ones while Nurkic and Jokic are battling each other.

• MPJ over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) – 1.3 units

Blazers vs Nuggets 10:00am AEST

ReVenGe GaMe. Nurkic is rolling and it a major part of this offence. He wasn’t himself vs Rockets missing a bunch of easy ones but love his role and that easily could have been a 25 points night for him. He still leads the Blazers in usage at 26.5 and is averaging 22/12.3 at Disney so far. Line hasn’t adjusted much and this matchup is fine for him. Bam is the only offensive centre who has played against the Nuggets and he feasted with 22/9/6 in just 28 minutes. Should play big minutes again assuming he can stay out of foul trouble. Keen.

• Nurkic over 27.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 (Beteasy) – 1.5 units

Staking Plan

• Zion over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1.3 units
• Zion over 24.5 Points @ 3.60 – 0.25 units
• Ayton over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 – 1 unit
• Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist @ 3.5 – 0.2 units
• Turner over 14.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit
• Kawhi over 26.5 Points @ 1.90 – 1.25 units
• MPJ over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 (Ladbrokes) – 1.3 units
• Nurkic over 27.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 (Beteasy) – 1.5 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport