Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Clippers vs Mavs

Played 41:48 last game with his minutes matched exactly to Kawhi. Have to imagine Kawhi gets a minute bump here which should mean DFS plays at least 42, maybe close to 44. Averaging 8.4 RA per 40 in the series (8.9 RA per 40 in regular season). Hard to imagine this is an offence oriented game so should be some extra boards to go around. He’s averaging 5.76 potentials per 42 minutes so getting a good deal on the combo line here.

• Dorian Finney-Smith over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.75 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Dorian Finney-Smith Double Double @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Similar train of thought here, PG played 46 minutes last game and will likely get close to that mark again (may get some second half rest if Clips are leading, which I think they will be). He had 16 and 19 in his last two, and is now averaging 0.36 RA per minute for the series, which lands at 16.56 per 46.

• Paul George over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Bucks vs Nets

To me, this game just came down to Bucks not hitting 3s. Bucks were absolutely killing the Nets inside with a ridiculous 72 paint points and there really isn’t much the Nets can do to slow that down with the personnel they have so they’ll likely be a constant in this series. Not including the garbage time 3 from Forbes, Bucks were a pathetic 5-29 from 3. No tracking data yet but to the eye and a quick rewatch I thought most of the looks were pretty good. Yes, Kyrie and KD didn’t play their best either but at least they got a career game from Mike James and easily Griffin’s best Nets game so counter that which they really can’t rely on again. Waiting for series lines to go back up but I’m pretty keen on Bucks for the series here (going to be very tough for Harden to get back on the court this series I would think after a 2nd reaggravation).

• Milwaukee Bucks ML @ 2.16 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 3.5 units out

• Dorian Finney-Smith over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.75 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Dorian Finney-Smith Double Double @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Paul George over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Milwaukee Bucks ML @ 2.16 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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